Who will win in Illinois?

[BaconBacon96]

Quinn. This is Illinois we're talking about here.

[andrew_c]

Quinn.
As long as he does not do too poorly in rural areas, he will win just by dominating Chicago.

[muon2]

Quinn.
As long as he does not do too poorly in rural areas, he will win just by dominating Chicago.

Dominating Chicago is not enough. Mark Kirk only got 19.47% of the vote in Chicago in 2010 to 76.72% for Alexi Giannoulias. Though Quinn only got 75.43% in Chicago in 2010, Cohen's vote held Brady to 17.41%. That gave him a 400K vote advantage there, but Giannoulias with a 394K advantage in Chicago lost to Kirk.

There's no significant third party this year. How does Quinn improve his percent from 2010 and keep Rauner from matching Kirk? If Quinn can't do that, he has to find some new pocket of votes outside of Chicago.

[sg0508]

Amazing how when I looked back at all the polls from the 2010 race, Brady didn't trail in a single poll from August on and still lost.  That race was highly polled too.  Brady must have lost the late-deciders (the "come homers") 90/10 to blow that race.

It's amazing how from some of the posts within this discussion, the perception of the total incompetence of the GOP in IL

[muon2]

Amazing how when I looked back at all the polls from the 2010 race, Brady didn't trail in a single poll from August on and still lost.  That race was highly polled too.  Brady must have lost the late-deciders (the "come homers") 90/10 to blow that race.

It's amazing how from some of the posts within this discussion, the perception of the total incompetence of the GOP in IL

Most of the polls for the race failed to include all the candidates on the ballot. Because of that Brady was getting all the anti-Quinn vote in those polls. In reality almost 4% went to Cohen and that largely came at the expense of Brady. When there is a well-funded third party candidate in a close race, it's essential to include their name in the poll. Otherwise all one is measuring is the incumbent's strength against the field.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[It's amazing how from some of the posts within this discussion, the perception of the total incompetence of the GOP in IL
[/quote]

I find that true in HI/CT/IL, "coming home effect"in those gubernatorial races where Dems are currently trailing in Democratic strongholds.

Instead of the Scott Cohen on the ballot, the reverse can be said about the Vallas effect.  Karen Lewis who wants to challenge Emanuel for Mayor, bringing home a Chicago casino and a Peotone airport is the CEO of schools just like Vallas was in 1994 during Daley tenure. People will remember what Vallas did as CEO of Public schools and like Valllas more than Quinn, and vote the two in because they are a team.

Not to mention Durbin is running. It is an uphill climb for Quinn but he may squeak by.

[Suburbia]

Probably Gov. Quinn. But in 2018, he'll probably be forced to retire if he's still unpopular.

[Vega]

Probably Gov. Quinn. But in 2018, he'll probably be forced to retire if he's still unpopular.

/He'll retire in 2018. There isn't any way that I see him running for a third term. Governors tend to get less popular over a second term, not more.

[greenforest32]

Quinn.
As long as he does not do too poorly in rural areas, he will win just by dominating Chicago.

There's no significant third party this year. How does Quinn improve his percent from 2010 and keep Rauner from matching Kirk? If Quinn can't do that, he has to find some new pocket of votes outside of Chicago.

If there are no third-party candidates on the ballot, it's not like 100% of those votes would go to Rauner; the Green candidate got ~10% in 2006 and ~3% in 2010. Plus Illinois will have same-day registration for the first time this year so turn-out could be higher than expected.

[muon2]

Quinn.
As long as he does not do too poorly in rural areas, he will win just by dominating Chicago.

There's no significant third party this year. How does Quinn improve his percent from 2010 and keep Rauner from matching Kirk? If Quinn can't do that, he has to find some new pocket of votes outside of Chicago.

If there are no third-party candidates on the ballot, it's not like 100% of those votes would go to Rauner; the Green candidate got ~10% in 2006 and ~3% in 2010. Plus Illinois will have same-day registration for the first time this year so turn-out could be higher than expected.

They may not go to Rauner, but they are mostly based on protest votes against Quinn. It was in protest against Blago that Whitney got 10% as a Green, in large part because Blago's ads had successfully decimated Topinka's image early in the campaign. That hasn't happened this year against Rauner. If the Greens get 3% or more its coming almost entirely from left-leaning voters protesting Quinn.

The same day registration will help Quinn, but will that do more than compensate from the high turnout for downballot Cook races that are missing this year. If it only replaces those votes it still leaves Quinn short of a win. Rauner has created a ground game that Brady lacked so he will be turning out extra voters as well. I'm just saying that Quinn has a much tougher comeback than he had 4 years ago.

[ill ind]

  Some mention has been made about third party candidates in the Illinois Election and the effect that had 4 years ago.  Even though the ballot will not be certified until Friday, based on the hearing officers' documents concerning the objections, it appears that the Libertarian Party ticket will be on the ballot, but that the Green and Constitution Parties' slates have failed to get on.
  Libertarians have gotten some fairly impressive results in polling this year so we will see.  There will be a protest option out there.
  I am amazed at the amount of time,effort and money the two major parties put into trying to keep any independents off the Illinois ballot this year.  I shouldn't be as there is a whole cottage law practice built around ballot challenges in this state

Ill_Ind

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Polling is also far worse for Quinn this year than in 2010 on other important topics.

While Quinn held up in the Cook County suburbs in 2010, this year it's Rauner leading. Also, voters view Rauner as the candidate of change and reform, not Quinn anymore. Rauner is also tying Quinn as the candidate "most in touch", which speaks volumes to the failure of Quinn to paint Rauner as another Mitt Romney. Rauner is also dominating the collar counties more than Brady did in 2010.


I still say Rauner ekes out a narrow plurality, but of course Quinn could still pull this off. Fingers crossed for Rauner!

[Senator Cris]

It will be a very close race...

[Abhakhazia]

While I had my doubts about Rauner directly before and after the primary, I think that he's probably going to pull it off now.

[Suburbia]

Quinn could win reelection, but by the slimmest of margins. If he doesn't run in 2018, it's probably Lisa Madigan, Dan Hynes, Kwame Raoul, Alexi Giannoulias, or maybe even Rahm Emanuel's' chance at winning the Democratic nomination for governor in 2018.

[SWE]

Rauner

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm changing my prediction to Quinn, as of now.

[Mr. Illini]

Quinn could win reelection, but by the slimmest of margins. If he doesn't run in 2018, it's probably Lisa Madigan, Dan Hynes, Kwame Raoul, Alexi Giannoulias, or maybe even Rahm Emanuel's' chance at winning the Democratic nomination for governor in 2018.

God help us.