How I see the races right now

[JRP1994]

Key: Safe > Likely > Lean > Tilt
* = Special
Pickups in bold

Alabama: SAFE Republican
Alaska: TILT Democrat
Arkansas: LEAN Republican
Colorado: LEAN Democrat
Delaware: SAFE Democrat
Georgia: LIKELY Republican
Hawaii*: SAFE Democrat
Idaho: SAFE Republican
Illinois: SAFE Democrat
Iowa: TILT Republican
Kansas: LIKELY Republican
Kentucky: LIKELY Republican
Louisiana: TILT Republican
Maine: SOLID Republican
Massachusetts: SOLID Democrat
Michigan: LIKELY Democrat
Minnesota: SOLID Democrat
Mississippi: SOLID Republican
Montana: SOLID Republican
Nebraska: SOLID Republican
New Hampshire: LIKELY Democrat
New Jersey: SOLID Democrat
New Mexico: SOLID Democrat
North Carolina: TILT Democrat
Oklahoma: SOLID Republican
Oklahoma*: SOLID Republican
Oregon: SOLID Democrat
Rhode Island: SOLID Democrat
South Carolina: SOLID Republican
South Carolina*: SOLID Republican
South Dakota: SOLID Republican
Tennessee: SOLID Republican
Texas: SOLID Republican
Virginia: SOLID Democrat
West Virginia: SOLID Republican
Wyoming: SOLID Republican

RESULT: GOP +6

FINAL RESULT: D: 49, R:51

[Miles]

You forgot to bold WV (and count it as a pickup).

[JRP1994]

You forgot to bold WV (and count it as a pickup).

Good catch!

[RogueBeaver]

Mostly agree, though I might quibble about Tilt/Lean D in CO and Tilt D in IA.

[ElectionsGuy]

I almost agree with all of it. I would only say Kentucky should be Lean R, and that Kansas should be Solid R (realistically, Brownback will drag down the others on the ballot but not by how much we've seen in recent polls, republicans will come home). And I would argue Alaska is a complete toss-up, as the polling usually overestimates democrats in previous races.