Nate Silver: Hillary does not have a problem on her left

[IceSpear]

Evidence that Hillary doesn't have a problem on her left:
- Every poll in the last 2 years

Evidence that Hillary does have a problem on her left:
- Pundit opinion pieces
- Gut feelings
- Daily Kos comment threads

Hmm...I wonder which Nate Silver will go with?

[IceSpear]

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Maybe now that Nate Silver is staying it instead of me, people will pay attention.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, there's no left credible left challenge to Clinton because there's no figure with the stature to become a voice for that challenge.

It all depends on the national mood. It's hard to say where we will be in a year and a half, but putting boots on the ground in Iraq is a real possible. If the conditions are right, even Bernie Sanders could mount a serious challenge from the left.

Ignoring all of Silver's factual arguments by responding with a vacuous "anything can happen in a year!" or a "a week is an eternity in politics!" is just the worst. Hillary got nearly half the vote and only barely lost even in a perfect storm against her, and she's in a much stronger position now than she was then.

[IceSpear]

I don't think you can tell for sure just from historical polling. Iowa is still aways away.

Also, many are thinking that Paul may be a huge problem for Hillary in the general, since he'll run to her left on some issues, and cost her a lot of traditional Democratic votes.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/14/1321633/-While-Hillary-is-Busy-Reaffirming-Her-Neocon-Chops-Rand-Paul-Siezes-the-Populist-Beachhead

"Traditionally Democratic" voters will abandon Bill's wife for Rand Paul, because of some minor political posturing? Color me skeptical.

Yeah, the young white libertarian men that are in love with Rand aren't exactly representative of the Democratic Party base.