Rank Northeastern and Midwestern metros from most liberal to most conservative
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  Rank Northeastern and Midwestern metros from most liberal to most conservative
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Author Topic: Rank Northeastern and Midwestern metros from most liberal to most conservative  (Read 4885 times)
King of Kensington
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« on: August 14, 2014, 03:58:39 PM »

Let's limit to metros over 1 million.  I'm guessing Boston would probably be the most liberal, not sure about most conservative.  Cincinnati maybe?  Milwaukee? (it's known for having very Republican suburbs).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2014, 04:24:34 PM »

Obama won the Milwaukee metro in both 08 and 12. Cincinnati or Indianapolis is probably your best bet.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2014, 05:44:00 PM »

According to the Census, there are 22 metropolitan areas in the Midwest and Northeast (if you exclude Washington and Baltimore, which are both technically in the south). For the most conservative ones, Milwaukee actually didn't even vote for Romney.

Milwaukee:

Obama: 568,022 (50.9%)
Romney: 535,645 (48.0%)

However, Cincinnati is probably the safest bet for the most conservative one.

Cincinnati:


Romney: 590,322 (57.2%)
Obama: 425,903 (41.3%)

And Indianapolis is conservative, but not as much as Cincinnati.

Indianapolis:

Romney: 468,225 (53.6%)
Obama: 387,783 (44.4%)

For most liberal, Boston has got to take the cake.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2014, 06:18:50 PM »

Are you including Kentucky parts of Cincinnati?  How much does that push it even more into the conservative camp compared to just including the Ohio side?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2014, 06:30:34 PM »

Are you including Kentucky parts of Cincinnati?  How much does that push it even more into the conservative camp compared to just including the Ohio side?

The Cincinnati metro includes parts of rural Kentucky and Indiana, as well as suburban areas in Kentucky. With just Hamilton and the three main suburban counties in Ohio, it looks like this:

Romney: 439,271 (55.2%)
Obama: 345,682 (43.4%)

So suburban Cincinnati in Kentucky does move it to the right a little bit. Not much though. And the rural counties, including the one in Ohio, barely do anything.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2014, 06:52:31 PM »

Keep forgetting that Grand Rapids metro has about the same size as that of Buffalo and Rochester.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2014, 11:40:35 PM »

I went with >2million because I am not familiar enough with some of the smaller metros to include them.

Most Liberal

Boston MA
New York NY
Minneapolis/StP MN
Chicago IL
Detroit MI
Cleveland OH
Philadelphia PA
Baltimore MD
Columbus OH
Pittsburgh PA
Milwaukee WI
St Louis MO
Indianapolis IN
Cincinnati OH

Most Conservative
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2014, 06:48:59 PM »

I'll believe it when I see it, but I'd have to believe the SUBURBS of Chicago are more GOP-friendly than the suburbs of Baltimore...
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CountyTy90
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2014, 07:25:27 PM »

I'll believe it when I see it, but I'd have to believe the SUBURBS of Chicago are more GOP-friendly than the suburbs of Baltimore...

I was thinking the same thing; Chicago's suburbs are not like they were 20-30 years ago in friendliness to the GOP, but I definitely think they're a lot more friendly to the GOP than Baltimore's surrounding environs.
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2014, 09:17:48 PM »

The Pittsburgh MSA has got to be one of the top 5 most conservative. All of the counties in it sans Allegheny voted for Romney. A few of said counties, including Westmoreland County, PA; the most populous county other than Allegheny, gave him more than 60% of the vote.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2014, 09:24:50 PM »

The Pittsburgh MSA has got to be one of the top 5 most conservative. All of the counties in it sans Allegheny voted for Romney. A few of said counties, including Westmoreland County, PA; the most populous county other than Allegheny, gave him more than 60% of the vote.


I'd agree it's toward the conservative end but still a bit to the left of metros like Indy, MKE, or Cincinnati. In Cincinnati  even the core county (Hamilton) is somewhat competitive (52.5% Obama) while the outlying suburban ones (Butler, Clermont, and Warren) are all over 60% Romney. Warren County is even pushing 70%.

Pittsburgh/Milwaukee is more debatable as MKE County itself is more Democratic than Allegheny, but the suburban three (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) are probably the most conservative suburban counties of any metro on this list.
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2014, 09:28:44 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2014, 09:50:09 PM by NJ Christian »

The Pittsburgh MSA has got to be one of the top 5 most conservative. All of the counties in it sans Allegheny voted for Romney. A few of said counties, including Westmoreland County, PA; the most populous county other than Allegheny, gave him more than 60% of the vote.


I'd agree it's toward the conservative end but still a bit to the left of metros like Indy, MKE, or Cincinnati. In Cincinnati  even the core county (Hamilton) is somewhat competitive (52.5% Obama) while the outlying suburban ones (Butler, Clermont, and Warren) are all over 60% Romney. Warren County is even pushing 70%.

Pittsburgh/Milwaukee is more debatable as MKE County itself is more Democratic than Allegheny, but the suburban three (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) are probably the most conservative suburban counties of any metro on this list.

Good points. There are also smaller metros that are very conservative. I'd still place Pittsburgh pretty high on the list, though.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2014, 11:13:41 AM »

Obama only lost the Pittsburgh Metro by 14,091 votes, which isn't bad considering how much the suburban counties swung against him. I'd have to go with Cincinnati. 
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2014, 11:21:49 AM »
« Edited: August 19, 2014, 12:41:48 PM by traininthedistance »

I'll believe it when I see it, but I'd have to believe the SUBURBS of Chicago are more GOP-friendly than the suburbs of Baltimore...

I was thinking the same thing; Chicago's suburbs are not like they were 20-30 years ago in friendliness to the GOP, but I definitely think they're a lot more friendly to the GOP than Baltimore's surrounding environs.

The Baltimore suburbs are not exactly Democratic, especially not at the federal level.  Carroll and Howard are more Republican than any of the collar counties, and my impression from a distance is that they are still kinda "Southern" in many ways, moreso than the DC suburbs.
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CountyTy90
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2014, 12:30:39 PM »

I'll believe it when I see it, but I'd have to believe the SUBURBS of Chicago are more GOP-friendly than the suburbs of Baltimore...

I was thinking the same thing; Chicago's suburbs are not like they were 20-30 years ago in friendliness to the GOP, but I definitely think they're a lot more friendly to the GOP than Baltimore's surrounding environs.

The Baltimore suburbs are not exactly Democratic, especially not at the federal level.  Carroll and Howard are more Republican than any of the collar counties, and my impression from a distance is that they are still kinda "Southern" in many ways, moreso than the DC suburbs..

I think you meant to say Harford.

Howard County is the most Democratic county in the Baltimore metro area; Romney at least broke 40% in Baltimore County. Last time a Republican won Howard County was in 1988; same time when the suburbs of Baltimore last went Republican. I agree that Carroll and Harford are extremely Republican on every level and way more Republican than any county in Chicagoland currently.

Compare that with Chicagoland which, until 2008, Republicans were winning every county in the metro area (save Cook and Lake, Indiana).
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2014, 12:35:15 PM »

I'll believe it when I see it, but I'd have to believe the SUBURBS of Chicago are more GOP-friendly than the suburbs of Baltimore...

I was thinking the same thing; Chicago's suburbs are not like they were 20-30 years ago in friendliness to the GOP, but I definitely think they're a lot more friendly to the GOP than Baltimore's surrounding environs.

The Baltimore suburbs are not exactly Democratic, especially not at the federal level.  Carroll and Howard are more Republican than any of the collar counties, and my impression from a distance is that they are still kinda "Southern" in many ways, moreso than the DC suburbs..

I think you meant to say Harford.

Howard County is the most Democratic county in the Baltimore metro area; Romney at least broke 40% in Baltimore County. Last time a Republican won Howard County was in 1988; same time when the suburbs of Baltimore last went Republican. I agree that Carroll and Harford are extremely Republican on every level and way more Republican than any county in Chicagoland currently.

Compare that with Chicagoland which, until 2008, Republicans were winning every county in the metro area (save Cook and Lake, Indiana).

Yes, I did mean Harford.  Oops! 
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2014, 12:40:51 PM »

As has been pointed out before, Maryland would look very much like a Southern state if it weren't for Montgomery and Howard counties. In general the Washington metro area (certainly the part in Maryland) is far more Democratic than the Baltimore metro area.
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Sol
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2014, 04:41:56 PM »

Howard County also has tons of spillover from DC.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2014, 09:59:03 AM »

As has been pointed out before, Maryland would look very much like a Southern state if it weren't for Montgomery and Howard counties. In general the Washington metro area (certainly the part in Maryland) is far more Democratic than the Baltimore metro area.

It is a Southern state.   Obviously having the national capital region is going to make it an outlier.  And even in the suburbs of Washington - PG County has more in common with suburban Atlanta than with anything in the Northeast.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2014, 10:17:01 AM »

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2014-04-12/news/bs-ed-new-south-jealous-20140412_1_maryland-marriage-equality-state-house
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muon2
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« Reply #20 on: August 20, 2014, 08:52:00 PM »

As has been pointed out before, Maryland would look very much like a Southern state if it weren't for Montgomery and Howard counties. In general the Washington metro area (certainly the part in Maryland) is far more Democratic than the Baltimore metro area.

It is a Southern state.   Obviously having the national capital region is going to make it an outlier.  And even in the suburbs of Washington - PG County has more in common with suburban Atlanta than with anything in the Northeast.

We've had this debate many times. Historically MD was southern, and many residents still use that historical reference. If you look at measures such as membership rates in non-black evangelical churches or listeners to country music stations, MD doesn't look very southern anymore.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2014, 09:37:43 PM »

Cincinnati has some suburbs that are downright fascist.

Suburban Cincinnati is a good argument for restarting Reconstruction.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2014, 12:55:27 AM »

We've had this debate many times. Historically MD was southern, and many residents still use that historical reference. If you look at measures such as membership rates in non-black evangelical churches or listeners to country music stations, MD doesn't look very southern anymore.

I think those that claim that Maryland isn't "purely" southern have a point, but few make a good case for it being Northeastern.

It is 29% African American.  No non-Southern state is more than 20%. 

It doesn't have the "white ethnic" populations of the Northeast.  Where are the Italians and Irish? How much of the Hispanic population is Puerto Rican?

It also has a lot of unincorporated areas rather than towns/boroughs and the suburbs of DC look more Sunbeltish and "boomburb"-ish than than they look like the "quaint suburban towns and old industrial cities" model that prevails in most of the Northeast. 

Of course, being in the national capital region it's going to have a lot of transplants and be an outlier culturally and politically.

Demographically, it resembles Virginia more than it does any other state.  Maryland is a border Southern state.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2014, 09:36:08 AM »

We've had this debate many times. Historically MD was southern, and many residents still use that historical reference. If you look at measures such as membership rates in non-black evangelical churches or listeners to country music stations, MD doesn't look very southern anymore.

I think those that claim that Maryland isn't "purely" southern have a point, but few make a good case for it being Northeastern.

It is 29% African American.  No non-Southern state is more than 20%. 

It doesn't have the "white ethnic" populations of the Northeast.  Where are the Italians and Irish? How much of the Hispanic population is Puerto Rican?

It also has a lot of unincorporated areas rather than towns/boroughs and the suburbs of DC look more Sunbeltish and "boomburb"-ish than than they look like the "quaint suburban towns and old industrial cities" model that prevails in most of the Northeast. 

Of course, being in the national capital region it's going to have a lot of transplants and be an outlier culturally and politically.

Demographically, it resembles Virginia more than it does any other state.  Maryland is a border Southern state.

This may seem like a small thing, but take a look at the sort of housing stock in various major cities across the USA.  Philadelphia- and especially the poorer parts of Philly- has a distinctive rowhome style which you don't really see in NYC or points north, or out in the Midwest or South either.

But you do see it, in spades, in Baltimore.

Perhaps evidence for a shared Mid-Atlantic identity somewhere in there?
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muon2
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« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2014, 11:26:38 AM »

We've had this debate many times. Historically MD was southern, and many residents still use that historical reference. If you look at measures such as membership rates in non-black evangelical churches or listeners to country music stations, MD doesn't look very southern anymore.

I think those that claim that Maryland isn't "purely" southern have a point, but few make a good case for it being Northeastern.

It is 29% African American.  No non-Southern state is more than 20%. 

It doesn't have the "white ethnic" populations of the Northeast.  Where are the Italians and Irish? How much of the Hispanic population is Puerto Rican?

It also has a lot of unincorporated areas rather than towns/boroughs and the suburbs of DC look more Sunbeltish and "boomburb"-ish than than they look like the "quaint suburban towns and old industrial cities" model that prevails in most of the Northeast. 

Of course, being in the national capital region it's going to have a lot of transplants and be an outlier culturally and politically.

Demographically, it resembles Virginia more than it does any other state.  Maryland is a border Southern state.

This may seem like a small thing, but take a look at the sort of housing stock in various major cities across the USA.  Philadelphia- and especially the poorer parts of Philly- has a distinctive rowhome style which you don't really see in NYC or points north, or out in the Midwest or South either.

But you do see it, in spades, in Baltimore.

Perhaps evidence for a shared Mid-Atlantic identity somewhere in there?

I was going to make a similar point that Balto shares much in common with Philly. The architecture and history follow very similar paths. I would take train as the authority, but rowhouses in parts of Queens and Brooklyn remind me of their counterparts in Balto and Philly. In my visits I find more similarities than differences.

As to the demographics, Balto was a significant some to white ethnic immigration and was the second largest port of entry after NYC. Residents of Irish ancestry make up 13% of the population in Balto. Little Italy is an important neighborhood and was the childhood home of Nancy Pelosi, the daughter of Baltimore Mayor D'Alesandro. Before the Civil War the black population of Balto was predominantly free, though there were some slaves, and today makes up the largest ethnic group as it does in Philly.
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