European Union House of Reprensentatives

[memphis]

Any map/math nerds care to do a US House style apportionment with the EU? 435 members. Let's see who gets how many fictional representatives based on real population.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With 435 ERs / 751 MEPs:
1 / 1 Malta
1 / 1 Luxembourg
1 / 1 Cyprus
1 / 2 Estonia
2 / 3 Latvia
2 / 3 Slovenia
3 / 4 Lithuania
4 / 6 Croatia
4 / 7 Ireland
5 / 8 Slovakia
5 / 8 Finland
5 / 8 Denmark
6 / 11 Bulgaria
7 / 13 Austria
8 / 14 Sweden
8 / 15 Hungary
9 / 16 Portugal
9 / 16 Czechia
9 / 16 Greece
10 / 17 Belgium
14 / 25 Netherlands
17 / 30 Romania
33 / 57 Poland
40 / 69 Spain
51 / 89 Italy
55 / 95 United Kingdom
56 / 97 France
69 / 119 Germany
(If Scotland votes for independence, it would get 5 EPs / 8 MEPs under this scheme as its estimated population in just a little less than Slovakia's.  I didn't bother to calculate where they come from, tho at most one wouldn't come from the UK.)

[Cranberry]

I don't know where you have this numbers for the EP, Ernest, but they are wrong.
The number of MEPs is not allocated proportional, but that the small states have a larger influence compared to bigger states.

The numbers of MEPs per country:

 Germany    
   96
 France    
   74
 United Kingdom    
   73
 Italy    
   73
 Spain    
   54
 Poland    
   51
 Romania    
   32
 Netherlands    
   26
 Belgium    
   21
 Greece    
   21
 Czech Republic    
   21
 Portugal    
   21
 Hungary    
   21
 Sweden    
   20
 Austria    
   18
 Bulgaria    
   17
 Denmark    
   13
 Finland    
   13
 Slovakia    
   13
 Ireland    
   11
 Croatia    
   11
 Lithuania    
   11
 Slovenia    
   8
 Latvia    
   8
 Estonia    
   6
 Cyprus    
   6
 Luxembourg    
   6
 Malta    
   6

Representative numbers would likely be proportional though, so I guess your numbers there are right

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't know where you have this numbers for the EP, Ernest, but they are wrong.
The number of MEPs is not allocated proportional, but that the small states have a larger influence compared to bigger states

[....]

Representative numbers would likely be proportional though, so I guess your numbers there are right

My MEP numbers are as if the European Parliament's 751 members were apportioned in the same way as the U.S. House.

[Cranberry]

Oh yeah, that explains it
Sorry for that

[Tayya]

Hard to do thanks to the multi-party system. Just using actual results isn't really fair with FPTP districts, but a two-party system isn't easy either.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hard to do thanks to the multi-party system. Just using actual results isn't really fair with FPTP districts, but a two-party system isn't easy either.

The best solution if you want to keep uninominal constituencies is to use the 2-round system, or alternative vote. That way, the largest party within the largest of the two main ideological blocs would be expected to win the seat.

[Tayya]

Alright, I'm trying my hand at Sweden's 8 districts here. I've tried to keep population deviation at three digits, but I stopped bothering about exactl numbers later on so there might be some precinct swaps. Municipal and county integrity has been a priority.



SE-1 (green): Norrland

The entirety of the five northernmost counties that together roughly make the area of Norrland, as well as two municipalities from Dalarna that unfortunately breaks a community of interest. No established party can compete with the Social Democrats here - when current Left Party leader Jonas Sjöstedt was a MEP here he did very well in some parts (Västerbotten County and western Norrbotten County) but never threatened a Social Democratic victory. A 2-round/IRV system wouldn't exactly help the Left Party either. The likely victor is Jens Nilsson, incumbent Social Democratic MEP from Jämtland, who isn't a strong candidate but still safe.

Safe PES

SE-2 (red): Middle Sweden

This district is made up of most of non-urban Svealand including Västerås and Örebro. Many industrial towns can be found here and they together with the rural lands seal the deal.

Safe PES

SE-3 (light blue): Uppland

A fascinating district including Sweden's fourth largest city, Uppsala, as well as Stockholm's northern suburbs (as well as parts of the city itself) which are usually one the country's bluest areas. The Moderates still lost the district in 2014, but in a FPTP system they can count on support from many voters that currently vote Liberal, even if ALDE runs its own candidate. If the Christian Democrats run together with the Moderates as an EPP ticket it also helps. Still, thanks to the 2014 loss, I'm staying put with the Safe ranking.

Likely EPP

SE-4 (lime): Stockholm South and Central

Most of Stockholm's inner city, its southern suburbs and exurbs. Without a doubt the Swedish Greens' strongest district, but thanks to immigrant-heavy suburbs the Social Democrats would probably still be favored to win. In a 2-round system, though, the likely Green candidate Isabella Lövin - a fisheries policy wonk - will likely have far more crossover appeal than a Social Democratic candidate.

Lean PES - Lean Greens with two-round system.

SE-5 (purple): "The Midwest"

A hodge-podge of places from Karlstad to Jönköping.  Likely the Christian Democrats' strongest district, meaning that they may top a joint EPP ticket. The Social Democrats should still be favored thanks to the rural/small town dominance as well as the industrial belt by Lake Vänern's southern shore,

Likely PES

SE-6 (orange): Gothenburg and Halland

The Gothenburg metropolitan area, Halland County and a smaller part of Skåne County. A relatively strong right-wing district, for sure. With FPTP, all bets are off.

Tossup

SE-7 (dark blue): The East

Östergötland, Kalmar, Kronoberg, Gotland and Blekinge. A possibly competitive district, but all in all red.

Likely PES

SE-8 (yellow): Skåne

The Sweden Democrats will target this district massively, but are unlikely to succeed - especially in a two-round system. Still, the right-wing is decently strong in this one.

Tossup

Best case scenario for the PES is 7-1, worst case is 4-3-1.

[YL]

UK population (2011 census) including Gibraltar (which is currently represented in the European Parliament) gives a quota for 55 districts of just under 1.15 million.  England has 46.11 quotas, Scotland 4.62, Wales 2.66, Northern Ireland 1.58 and Gibraltar 0.03.

Following anything like US rules on populations is going to see lots of border crossing.  You might get something like:

UK-1: All of Northern Ireland except the parts around Belfast included in UK-2

UK-2: A cross-North Channel district: most of Greater Belfast including the old districts of North Down, Castlereagh, Newtownabbey, Carrickfergus and Larne (to include both ferry ports) and part of Lisburn, plus Ayrshire and Galloway.

UK-3: A Glasgow district: Glasgow, the three Renfrewshire districts and the two Dunbartonshire ones, plus a small part of South Lanarkshire.

UK-4: The Highlands and Islands don't have enough population, so throw in Aberdeenshire, Stirling and most of Perth & Kinross.

UK-5: You know how English Boundary Commissions like to produce ugly constituencies iin their provisional recommendations which cross estuaries?  This one crosses both the Firths of Forth and Tay: Angus, Dundee, Fife, Edinburgh, suburban parts of East Lothian.

UK-6: The main Central Belt district: North and most of South Lanarkshire, Falkirk, Clackmannanshire, Kinross, West Lothian, Midlothian and a small part of Scottish Borders to make it connected.

UK-7: The cross-border district: the remaining parts of East Lothian, Scottish Borders and the Dumfries area, plus the historic county of Northumberland (i.e. including Newcastle) and most of the borough of Gateshead.  (Ugh.)

UK-8: A Labour fortress in County Durham, including the rest of Tyne & Wear, the County Durham unitary except for some rural areas around Teesdale, and the Darlington and Hartlepool unitaries.

UK-9: A largely North Riding district, including Stockton, Middlesbrough, Redcar & Cleveland, a slightly expanded Teesdale, the city of York and all of North Yorkshire County Council's area except Craven, Selby and a small part of Harrogate.

Each of the West Riding's three main cities now gets a district with some surrounding areas:

UK-10: Bradford, Craven, Calderdale, most of Kirklees.

UK-11: Leeds, Wakefield, small part of Harrogate district and most of Selby.

UK-12: Sheffield, Barnsley, Rotherham, southern Kirklees around Denby Dale, western part of Doncaster borough (Conisbrough/Mexborough area).

UK-13: Essentially, an expanded H*mb*rs*d*, adding part of Selby district and most of Doncaster, but some areas in Lincolnshire will have to go into a largely East Midlands district.

UK-14: Cumbria, plus north Lancashire southwards to Preston, also including a small part of South Ribble in the Preston urban area.

UK-15: The rest of Lancashire County Council's area, plus Wigan borough.

UK-16: A Liverpool district, adding the rest of Merseyside north of the river plus most of Halton.

UK-17: Northern Greater Manchester: Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Oldham, Salford and I think one ward of Trafford.

UK-18: The main Manchester district: the city itself plus Tameside, Stockport and most of Trafford.

UK-19: The main Cheshire district: the rest of Halton plus Warrington, Cheshire West, the rest of Trafford and the northern half of Cheshire East.

UK-20: A monstrosity crossing the England-Wales border: all of North Wales plus northern Powys (Montgomeryshire plus a bit of Radnor, I think) and most of Shropshire (excluding the north-east around Newport and Market Drayton).

UK-21: The rest of Powys, then Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire, Swansea, Bridgend, Neath Port Talbot and the bulk of Rhondda Cynon Taf.

UK-22: The rest of Wales, i.e. the Cardiff and Newport areas, the eastern Valleys and Monmouthshire.

UK-23: A Potteries-based district: southern Cheshire around Crewe, plus Stoke, Newcastle under Lyme, north-east Shropshire, Staffs Moorlands, South Staffs district and the Uttoxeter part of East Staffs, and Cannock Chase.

... at this point I decided I had better things to do with my life.  And I haven't really worked out most of the district splits in detail.

[Antonio the Sixth]

... at this point I decided I had better things to do with my life.

That's bad. You need to embrace your inner nerd!