Cuomo v. Teachout

[xavier110]

Atlas Forum should do a drinking game for the NY primary. Every time Teachout wins a county, take a shot.

I support this idea. Hopefully we'll be getting pretty hammered. Hopefully.

Can anyone think of a comparable primary where the upstart surged in the last three weeks, receiving actual press attention and even some high profile endorsements over the incumbent? Since we have no polls, I sort of have lost all clue about what is going on here... all my recent comparisons are Tea Partiers, and I don't know how they relate to the situation in NY

[Eraserhead]

I'm not really sure what to compare it to since we have absolutely no public polling to go on. The only thing we have to go on are the things the Cuomo camp says since they're of course polling privately. They seem concerned but they're clearly not in full-on crisis mode (at least not yet).

To be honest, I could see Teachout only getting 15% about as easily as I could see her getting 45%. That kind of makes it exciting in a way though.

[© tweed]

Atlas Forum should do a drinking game for the NY primary. Every time Teachout wins a county, take a shot.

That's a great game if you don't want to get drunk.  Teachout's chances to win counties are overrated.

Tompkins might make us proud

[Mister Mets]

I wonder what the average Cuomo/Wu voter is like (asian-american I guess). I also wonder what a Teachout/Hochul voter is like if such a thing even exists (it'd be female I suppose).

Probably sympathetic to Teachout, but concerned about her qualifications.

Wu has a slightly more impressive background (he has had more impact as an academic) and he's running for a less impressive office against someone with a less impressive background (Hochul is a former county clerk turned one term congresswoman.)

[xavier110]

Eraserhead is correct - Cuomo's behavior is the best guide that we have, and so far it hasn't betrayed the full-blown panic that we might see if they expected Teachout to take more than a third of the vote (at most).

I think  basically everything suggests panic - I don't know what else he'd have to do to convey "full-blown panic"? Arrest her?

https://twitter.com/AndreaWNYC/status/507551911609106432

[cinyc]

I think  basically everything suggests panic - I don't know what else he'd have to do to convey "full-blown panic"? Arrest her?

https://twitter.com/AndreaWNYC/status/507551911609106432

If Cuomo were in panic mode, he'd be running ads against Teachout. I haven't seen one yet.

[xavier110]

I think  basically everything suggests panic - I don't know what else he'd have to do to convey "full-blown panic"? Arrest her?

https://twitter.com/AndreaWNYC/status/507551911609106432

If Cuomo were in panic mode, he'd be running ads against Teachout. I haven't seen one yet.

He amped up his own personal ad spending -- they've decided not to even mention Teachout by name and are letting surrogates put down Teachout/Wu ('we don't know who these people are,' 'Teachout elevated Astorino in debate,' from Paterson, Klein, etc). They wouldn't dare run negative ads against her and know it could backfire a la Cantor.

[cinyc]

He amped up his own personal ad spending -- they've decided not to even mention Teachout by name and are letting surrogates put down Teachout/Wu ('we don't know who these people are,' 'Teachout elevated Astorino in debate,' etc). They wouldn't dare run negative ads against her

If Cuomo were truly in trouble, he'd be savagely attacking Teachout as an inexperienced radical who would take New York backwards.  Instead, he is running positive ads touting his record and putting the public on notice that he backs Hochul for Lt. Governor.  He is sitting on millions of dollars in his campaign account.  Why not use it to try to run up the tally in the primary?

[xavier110]

He amped up his own personal ad spending -- they've decided not to even mention Teachout by name and are letting surrogates put down Teachout/Wu ('we don't know who these people are,' 'Teachout elevated Astorino in debate,' etc). They wouldn't dare run negative ads against her

If Cuomo were truly in trouble, he'd be savagely attacking Teachout as an inexperienced radical who would take New York backwards.  Instead, he is running positive ads touting his record and putting the public on notice that he backs Hochul for Lt. Governor.  He is sitting on millions of dollars in his campaign account.  Why not use it to try to run up the tally in the primary?

I just don't think any of that would work - and would reek of desperation - especially in NY. He can't just pummel her now. He obviously did what he needed to do initially: ignore her, not act like there was any challenge to his left. To call her a radical would incense the liberal Democratic base. To call her a carpetbagger would make him look extremely petty after all the court action.

But now...
https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/507607747521544192
https://twitter.com/DavidKlepper/status/507607480667365376

So, in the past two days, it's been Paterson, de Blasio, and now Silver. I don't know how this doesn't mean they're afraid.

[Lief 🗽]

If Cuomo were in trouble he definitely wouldn't be legitimizing Teachout as a candidate by attacking her directly on television. Having his surrogates attack her would be the best strategy. Maybe if his internals showed him losing or something. But the way his campaign is acting makes me thinks his internals show her down by like 15% or so and gaining.

[Progressive]

Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.

[Beet]

If this campaign only had a few more weeks things would be different. It only ignited so late, which is the main thing helping Cuomo.

[Eraserhead]

Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.

What would you consider an underperformance though?

[Vega]

Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.

What would you consider an underperformance though?

Barring Teachout and Wu both gettung under 15%, I think they will over-preform. I mean, they both started out unknown.

[Progressive]

Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.

What would you consider an underperformance though?

Barring Teachout and Wu both gettung under 15%, I think they will over-preform. I mean, they both started out unknown.

Any challenger (even a perennial non-candidate) will get some % of the vote, probably 10% at very least maybe even 15%. After all, Gail Goode, got 24% of the vote against Gillibrand in the 2010 Senate primary election and no one, literally, no one knew who Goode was. She got no endorsements, etc.

If Teachout gets under 30% of the vote, I think that would be a disappointment.

[xavier110]

Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.

What would you consider an underperformance though?

Barring Teachout and Wu both gettung under 15%, I think they will over-preform. I mean, they both started out unknown.

Any challenger (even a perennial non-candidate) will get some % of the vote, probably 10% at very least maybe even 15%. After all, Gail Goode, got 24% of the vote against Gillibrand in the 2010 Senate primary election and no one, literally, no one knew who Goode was. She got no endorsements, etc.

If Teachout gets under 30% of the vote, I think that would be a disappointment.

Yeah, I agree with that. Just two weeks ago, that was the number that was the talk of the political class — Cuomo's people were dismissing 25% as what any "protest vote" starts with. She must be well above 30% by now.

[Simfan34]

http://observer.com/2014/09/wu-for-no-2/

The New York Observer just backed Wu for LG.

The Observer is a right-leaning paper, I'd say they're just trying to "stir up stuff" to give Cuomo a hard time and Astorino a better shot. No one on the editorial board would obviously want to actually see Teachout/Wu take power.

Also the idea of Cuomo winning the nomination on the backs of Hasidic votes is actually rather disturbing if you think about it, for a number of reasons.

He amped up his own personal ad spending -- they've decided not to even mention Teachout by name and are letting surrogates put down Teachout/Wu ('we don't know who these people are,' 'Teachout elevated Astorino in debate,' etc). They wouldn't dare run negative ads against her

If Cuomo were truly in trouble, he'd be savagely attacking Teachout as an inexperienced radical who would take New York backwards.  Instead, he is running positive ads touting his record and putting the public on notice that he backs Hochul for Lt. Governor.  He is sitting on millions of dollars in his campaign account.  Why not use it to try to run up the tally in the primary?

The obvious downside to this approach is that it would alert voters to the existence of an inexperienced radical challenging Cuomo in the primary.

[solarstorm]

I've got an interesting question:

If Teachout and Cuomo get roughly the same amount of votes, which counties is Zephyr gonna win?

My suggestion:
Safe: Bronx, New York, Queens
Maybe: Kings, Erie, Monroe, Albany, Westchester, Nassau

[Eraserhead]

If Teachout somehow managed to narrowly win, how many pages would this thread gain in the 24 hours after the polls closed?

It'd have to be considered one of the biggest upsets in American political history.

[solarstorm]

How many of the registered NY Democrats live in NYC?

[NHLiberal]

David Brat

[Badger]

Chill, people. Teachout will be lucky to hit 40% or win a single county. The Cuomo campaign is worried because that an outside--but politically embarrassing--possibility, but they're not 'panicking' because there's no chance of an actual loss.

[Eraserhead]

I wish PPP would poll this (and the LG race).

[© tweed]

I wish PPP would poll this (and the LG race).

or even Quinnipiac

[cinyc]

I wish PPP would poll this (and the LG race).

Marist and Siena are about due to do their monthly New York poll this week.  They haven't polled the primary in the past, but just before the election would be a good time to start.

Marist's last poll in August showed that 78% of New York registered voters had never heard of or had no opinion of Teachout, and, among those who did, her approvals were underwater, even among Democrats (10-16) and self-described Liberals (11-17).  It's hard to see how any unknown candidate with bad favorables can win anything - or even come close.  It's not like Cuomo's favorables are in negative territory.  He's more-favored-than-not by all voters, Democrats and liberals.