Cuomo v. Teachout

[xavier110]

The Cuomo ignoring Teachout video has already racked up 50,000 views on vimeo alone. Lol, this primary! I love how in the dark we are — and how little makes sense. (For example, I think Teachout will perform very strongly in upstate, but I have no idea how Wu will fare.)

eta: Teachout's also robocalling about how Cuomo accepted $80k from Koch family in 2010 race

[IceSpear]

Cuomo/Hochul is spending a tremendous amount of money on air and have a very large GOTV operation while Teachout/Wu have spent virtually nothing I would be shocked to see either get more than 20% of the vote.

Gail Goode got even less attention than Teachout is, and she got 25% of the vote against Kirsten Gillibrand. Teachout is definitely going to do better than that.

Yeah, pretty much every protest candidate (assuming there's only one) can probably rest assured they're going to get 15-20% or so. Some random teabagger got 20% against Bob Casey in 2012. I think a good result for Teachout would be 1/3 of the vote or more, anything else would be a major disappointment for her.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I don't think anyone, in 2016, will really pounce on Hillary for not supporting somewhat of a fringe candidate who happened to get lucky and capitalized (at least in terms of endorsements, we'll see what happens on Tuesday) on a lot of lingering anti-Cuomo anger---and renewed anger about Kathy Hochul.

Will Hillary realistically move a lot of votes for Cuomo? Probably not but she will bring out some.

The real 9/9 path to votes is who is brought out by their respective union, elected official, newspaper, or an a pro-Cuomo or anti-Cuomo disposition.

In other words, the tepid voter will not show up to vote on 9/9 UNLESS: the union encouraged them to come out, an elected official does, a newspaper makes a compelling point, AND, and perhaps most likely, you are either anti-Cuomo or pro-Cuomo.

She robocalled for a corrupt male over a non corrupt female. She believes in the good ol' boys network except when it comes to herself.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Would be nice if we got to see some polling. Even internal polling is better than nothing.

The momentum is going toward Teachout and Wu, but they have no real chance of winning.

I'm thinking high 30's for Teachout, but wouldn't be surprised to see her reach 40%. 42 or 43 percent would be a shock, but I refuse to rule it out. As far as Wu goes, she should get into the low 40's. Mid 40's would be a shock, but I refuse to rule it out.

The map will probably look a lot like a presidential election in NY. Teachout will play the part of the republican and Cuomo the part of the democrat, in that Teachout will carry upstate new york, but Cuomo's downstate margins will be far too big to overcome.

[badgate]

If you follow Teachout on Twitter, it feels like she's winning. She RTs everything.

edited to add: My point is her campaign has an especially strong digital arm, and is relying on it a lot more than field from what I can tell.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The map will probably look a lot like a presidential election in NY. Teachout will play the part of the republican and Cuomo the part of the democrat, in that Teachout will carry upstate new york, but Cuomo's downstate margins will be far too big to overcome.

LOL, no. I would expect Teachout's best county to be Tompkins, which is the most Democratic county outside of NYC.

[cinyc]

Would be nice if we got to see some polling. Even internal polling is better than nothing.

The momentum is going toward Teachout and Wu, but they have no real chance of winning.

I'm thinking high 30's for Teachout, but wouldn't be surprised to see her reach 40%. 42 or 43 percent would be a shock, but I refuse to rule it out. As far as Wu goes, she should get into the low 40's. Mid 40's would be a shock, but I refuse to rule it out.

The map will probably look a lot like a presidential election in NY. Teachout will play the part of the republican and Cuomo the part of the democrat, in that Teachout will carry upstate new york, but Cuomo's downstate margins will be far too big to overcome.

I'm not sure where this idea that there is momentum going for Teachout is coming from.  She's still way too unknown and going up against a sitting governor who is popular, especially among self-described liberals and Democrats.  And I'm not sure why the more liberal candidate should carry Upstate New York, where she's even less known than she is in NYC.  It usually works the other way around.  Upstate is more conservative than NYC.

My best guess is that Teachout doesn't exceed 25% in a very low turnout primary where the party establishment - all backing Cuomo - dominates the vote.

[KCDem]

Would be nice if we got to see some polling. Even internal polling is better than nothing.

The momentum is going toward Teachout and Wu, but they have no real chance of winning.

I'm thinking high 30's for Teachout, but wouldn't be surprised to see her reach 40%. 42 or 43 percent would be a shock, but I refuse to rule it out. As far as Wu goes, she should get into the low 40's. Mid 40's would be a shock, but I refuse to rule it out.

The map will probably look a lot like a presidential election in NY. Teachout will play the part of the republican and Cuomo the part of the democrat, in that Teachout will carry upstate new york, but Cuomo's downstate margins will be far too big to overcome.

I'm not sure where this idea that there is momentum going for Teachout is coming from.  She's still way too unknown and going up against a sitting governor who is popular, especially among self-described liberals and Democrats.  And I'm not sure why the more liberal candidate should carry Upstate New York, where she's even less known than she is in NYC.  It usually works the other way around.  Upstate is more conservative than NYC.

My best guess is that Teachout doesn't exceed 25% in a very low turnout primary where the party establishment - all backing Cuomo - dominates the vote.

Even absolute nobodies get 25% of the vote in New York state (see 2010 Democratic Senatorial Primary). Teachout will easily clear 30%.

[cinyc]

Even absolute nobodies get 25% of the vote in New York state (see 2010 Democratic Senatorial Primary). Teachout will easily clear 30%.

Gillibrand still is not as well-known or liked as Cuomo.  Hillary Clinton won almost 82% of the vote in the 2000 Democratic primary and 84% in the 2006 primary.  So, no, absolute nobodies don't usually get 25% in New York Democratic Primaries.  Cuomo is as well-known to New Yorkers as Hillary, not Gillibrand.

[NHLiberal]

Even absolute nobodies get 25% of the vote in New York state (see 2010 Democratic Senatorial Primary). Teachout will easily clear 30%.

Gillibrand still is not as well-known or liked as Cuomo.  Hillary Clinton won almost 82% of the vote in the 2000 Democratic primary and 84% in the 2006 primary.  So, no, absolute nobodies don't usually get 25% in New York Democratic Primaries.  Cuomo is as well-known to New Yorkers as Hillary, not Gillibrand.

No

[Tender Branson]

Updating my earlier prediction to:

70% Cuomo
29% Teachout
  1% Others

[Eraserhead]

http://www.npr.org/2014/09/07/346455250/cuomo-gets-more-of-an-opponent-than-he-bargained-for

[Donerail]

I'm not sure where this idea that there is momentum going for Teachout is coming from.  She's still way too unknown and going up against a sitting governor who is popular, especially among self-described liberals and Democrats.  And I'm not sure why the more liberal candidate should carry Upstate New York, where she's even less known than she is in NYC.  It usually works the other way around.  Upstate is more conservative than NYC.

My best guess is that Teachout doesn't exceed 25% in a very low turnout primary where the party establishment - all backing Cuomo - dominates the vote.

I don't agree with Wulfric's point - he'd be correct if Teachout was just a generic protest vote upstate voters could use to vote against Cuomo, but since she's actually running a campaign I'd expect her to do much better than generic R in Democratic strongholds. But to address your point, it's fairly common for something like that to happen - see FL Gov 2014. Rich overperformed (and actually won counties) in north Florida and the Panhandle, while underperforming in South Florida and I-4. Do the voters of Holmes County really prefer the liberal former state senator from South Florida with no money and no campaign north of I-4? Of course not, it's a way of voting against the Democratic establishment and their candidate. If voters upstate dislike the Cuomo administration they'll vote for the guy running against him, simple as that (and yeah, I realize the differences between FL and NY, especially the lack of the ancestral Southern Dem population like the Panhandle has, but still).

[Progressive]

What has been so odd about this race is that there are virtually no public polls showing Cuomo in danger of Teachout (or Hochul of Wu) yet my friends and I (especially my friends who are very much in the know either working for officials/unions etc) feel that there is something about this election that really puts Cuomo in a hard place. It's as if there's some sort of magical aura.

[Eraserhead]

What has been so odd about this race is that there are virtually no public polls showing Cuomo in danger of Teachout (or Hochul of Wu) yet my friends and I (especially my friends who are very much in the know either working for officials/unions etc) feel that there is something about this election that really puts Cuomo in a hard place. It's as if there's some sort of magical aura.

There haven't been any public polls at all.

But yeah, I know what you're talking about. It does feel like something strange could happen.

I have a lot of friends who are registered Democrats and everyone I've talked to is either voting for Teachout or not voting at all. I can't find any Cuomo voters. I guess most of them are at old folks homes.

[windjammer]

Cuomo is well-liked by the democrats?

Averroes, the NY democrats are relatively moderate???

[xavier110]

The reason why I think upstate is where Teachout will do relatively well -- her thriving social media, especially FB, is nearly all upstate people. It's a little ridiculous, but look at all the people who share, like, and post. They're from upstate, and they seem to be the most angry about fracking, Common Core, and Cuomo generally.

[windjammer]

Cuomo is well-liked by the democrats?

Averroes, the NY democrats are relatively moderate???

In rural and suburban Upstate NY, they tend to be.

But, these guys are probably social conservative, right? So he should underperform here?

That should be the upper class wealth urban class that should back Cuomo? I mean, he's rightwing moderate economically and relatively liberal socially?

[Eraserhead]

Teachout has done most of her campaigning in the city and has been mostly ignored by Upstate media (although a small newspaper in the Adirondacks endorsed her last week).

That's not completely true. She's been upstate quite a bit lately and has been getting a decent amount of coverage in my stomping grounds at least (Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, Woodstock - she was actually just interviewed on Radio Woodstock this morning, etc.).

[xavier110]

What has been so odd about this race is that there are virtually no public polls showing Cuomo in danger of Teachout (or Hochul of Wu) yet my friends and I (especially my friends who are very much in the know either working for officials/unions etc) feel that there is something about this election that really puts Cuomo in a hard place. It's as if there's some sort of magical aura.

There haven't been any public polls at all.

But yeah, I know what you're talking about. It does feel like something strange could happen.

I have a lot of friends who are registered Democrats and everyone I've talked to is either voting for Teachout or not voting at all. I can't find any Cuomo voters. I guess most of them are at old folks homes.

Well, Moreland unfolded a month ago, and since then Cuomo has received nearly uniformly bad press. (That alone, I would say has put him at the level of the "unknown" Gillibrand among Dem primary voters.)


Also, this shouldn't surprise anyone, but Cuomo's been threatening elected Dems who may want to endorse Teachout:
http://nypost.com/2014/09/08/cuomo-and-de-blasio-intimidate-democrats-backing-teachout/

[Eraserhead]

Teachout has done most of her campaigning in the city and has been mostly ignored by Upstate media (although a small newspaper in the Adirondacks endorsed her last week).

That's not completely true. She's been upstate quite a bit lately and has been getting a decent amount of coverage in my stomping grounds at least (Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, Woodstock - she was actually just interviewed on Radio Woodstock this morning, etc.).

My roots are showing because my first instinct was to laugh at calling any of those places 'Upstate.' But you raise a fair point about the Hudson Valley and the Catskills. Woodstock and New Paltz are the kind of places that I'd expect to lean toward a candidate like Teachout anyway, but these regions are the heart of anti-fracking sentiment in NY state (which contrasts with the Southern Tier counties west of Binghamton and Ithaca, where popular opinion is far more divided).

Heh - yeah, there is of course the endless great debate over whether those places should really be considered "upstate". I guess considering that I come from The Bronx originally, they'll always be "upstate" to me

But yeah, I think Teachout and Wu are going to perform very strongly in Ulster county.

[Lief 🗽]

The strange thing about this race is, just based purely on fundamentals, Cuomo and Hochul should both be winning in a huge landslide. But the media is talking about the campaign like it's actually close and especially about the Hochul-Wu race like it's a toss-up.

[KCDem]

The strange thing about this race is, just based purely on fundamentals, Cuomo and Hochul should both be winning in a huge landslide. But the media is talking about the campaign like it's actually close and especially about the Hochul-Wu race like it's a toss-up.

This is the same media that think the Warner-Gillespie race is a tossup too, so.....................

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How popular is fracking upstate? Is it resented as big companies trespassing on land or do people hope it'll lower gas prices?

The good thing is this whatever happens, Cuomo's dreams of higher office are effectively crushed

[IceSpear]

538 wrote an article about this. The conclusion seems to be: 75%+ = great. 70-75% = meh. <70%: bad.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/looking-for-signs-of-cuomos-liberal-problem-in-tuesdays-democratic-primary/