Cuomo v. Teachout

[Mister Mets]

I don't think anyone, in 2016, will really pounce on Hillary for not supporting somewhat of a fringe candidate who happened to get lucky and capitalized (at least in terms of endorsements, we'll see what happens on Tuesday) on a lot of lingering anti-Cuomo anger---and renewed anger about Kathy Hochul.

Will Hillary realistically move a lot of votes for Cuomo? Probably not but she will bring out some.

The real 9/9 path to votes is who is brought out by their respective union, elected official, newspaper, or an a pro-Cuomo or anti-Cuomo disposition.

In other words, the tepid voter will not show up to vote on 9/9 UNLESS: the union encouraged them to come out, an elected official does, a newspaper makes a compelling point, AND, and perhaps most likely, you are either anti-Cuomo or pro-Cuomo.

She robocalled for a corrupt male over a non corrupt female. She believes in the good ol' boys network except when it comes to herself.

I'm sure she believes she has earned her place in the old boy's network.

The Clintons have always rewarded loyalty, and Andrew Cuomo was in their cabinet.

[free my dawg]

What has been so odd about this race is that there are virtually no public polls showing Cuomo in danger of Teachout (or Hochul of Wu) yet my friends and I (especially my friends who are very much in the know either working for officials/unions etc) feel that there is something about this election that really puts Cuomo in a hard place. It's as if there's some sort of magical aura.

There haven't been any public polls at all.

But yeah, I know what you're talking about. It does feel like something strange could happen.

I have a lot of friends who are registered Democrats and everyone I've talked to is either voting for Teachout or not voting at all. I can't find any Cuomo voters. I guess most of them are at old folks homes.

Well, Moreland unfolded a month ago, and since then Cuomo has received nearly uniformly bad press. (That alone, I would say has put him at the level of the "unknown" Gillibrand among Dem primary voters.)


Also, this shouldn't surprise anyone, but Cuomo's been threatening elected Dems who may want to endorse Teachout:
http://nypost.com/2014/09/08/cuomo-and-de-blasio-intimidate-democrats-backing-teachout/

I'm not surprised that Fredo is going along with it too, and I hope he gets primaried somehow too.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What has been so odd about this race is that there are virtually no public polls showing Cuomo in danger of Teachout (or Hochul of Wu) yet my friends and I (especially my friends who are very much in the know either working for officials/unions etc) feel that there is something about this election that really puts Cuomo in a hard place. It's as if there's some sort of magical aura.

There haven't been any public polls at all.

But yeah, I know what you're talking about. It does feel like something strange could happen.

I have a lot of friends who are registered Democrats and everyone I've talked to is either voting for Teachout or not voting at all. I can't find any Cuomo voters. I guess most of them are at old folks homes.

Well, Moreland unfolded a month ago, and since then Cuomo has received nearly uniformly bad press. (That alone, I would say has put him at the level of the "unknown" Gillibrand among Dem primary voters.)


Also, this shouldn't surprise anyone, but Cuomo's been threatening elected Dems who may want to endorse Teachout:
http://nypost.com/2014/09/08/cuomo-and-de-blasio-intimidate-democrats-backing-teachout/

I'm not surprised that Fredo is going along with it too, and I hope he gets primaried somehow too.

Hopefully Cuomo promised him lots of goodies in return for his endorsement. If he just bended over to endorse Cuomo/Hochel, then he is a big pile of ew.

[free my dawg]

What has been so odd about this race is that there are virtually no public polls showing Cuomo in danger of Teachout (or Hochul of Wu) yet my friends and I (especially my friends who are very much in the know either working for officials/unions etc) feel that there is something about this election that really puts Cuomo in a hard place. It's as if there's some sort of magical aura.

There haven't been any public polls at all.

But yeah, I know what you're talking about. It does feel like something strange could happen.

I have a lot of friends who are registered Democrats and everyone I've talked to is either voting for Teachout or not voting at all. I can't find any Cuomo voters. I guess most of them are at old folks homes.

Well, Moreland unfolded a month ago, and since then Cuomo has received nearly uniformly bad press. (That alone, I would say has put him at the level of the "unknown" Gillibrand among Dem primary voters.)


Also, this shouldn't surprise anyone, but Cuomo's been threatening elected Dems who may want to endorse Teachout:
http://nypost.com/2014/09/08/cuomo-and-de-blasio-intimidate-democrats-backing-teachout/

I'm not surprised that Fredo is going along with it too, and I hope he gets primaried somehow too.

Hopefully Cuomo promised him lots of goodies in return for his endorsement. If he just bended over to endorse Cuomo/Hochel, then he is a big pile of ew.

I'll take it a step further. Bill de Blasio is a traitor to the left. This isn't like a situation with Sinema (where she's obviously moving to the right because she has higher ambitions) or even Gillibrand. This is someone who blatantly used the left to rise to power and abandoned them once he got big. I genuinely hope he gets primaried in 2017.

[cinyc]

I don't agree with Wulfric's point - he'd be correct if Teachout was just a generic protest vote upstate voters could use to vote against Cuomo, but since she's actually running a campaign I'd expect her to do much better than generic R in Democratic strongholds. But to address your point, it's fairly common for something like that to happen - see FL Gov 2014. Rich overperformed (and actually won counties) in north Florida and the Panhandle, while underperforming in South Florida and I-4. Do the voters of Holmes County really prefer the liberal former state senator from South Florida with no money and no campaign north of I-4? Of course not, it's a way of voting against the Democratic establishment and their candidate. If voters upstate dislike the Cuomo administration they'll vote for the guy running against him, simple as that (and yeah, I realize the differences between FL and NY, especially the lack of the ancestral Southern Dem population like the Panhandle has, but still).

One major difference between New York and Florida is that there are three candidates in the race, not two.  If Teachout and Credico are both relative unknowns, why wouldn't they split the Cuomo protest vote Upstate?  Teachout would probably benefit a little from being listed first on the ballot this cycle, though.  On the other hand, she doesn't have a traditional first name, like Randy Credico.

I can see Teachout doing well in traditional Democratic Upstate strongholds like Tompkins (Ithaca), Ulster (Kingston), Columbia (Hudson) and maybe even Albany (Albany) counties.  Outside of those areas, I think she underperforms her statewide average Upstate, particularly in Erie County (Buffalo), where increased turnout for Cuomo's running mate should help him.  Western New York tends to turn out when one of their own is on a statewide ballot.

[Progressive]

FYI, huge (from my friends there not as supporters but spectators) rally in Manhattan for Teachout going on right now.

[Eraserhead]

Apparently there is a robocall people are getting hit with tonight invoking President Clinton's name and his support for Cuomo/Hochul.

[Eraserhead]

Cuomo is on the attack again:

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2014/09/cuomo-no-lg-who-needs-on-the-job-training/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Lief 🗽]

I think clerking for a Supreme Court justice is more impressive and gives greater "experience" than serving one term as a backbench congressperson. This is the weirdest attack ever. He even sounds half-hearted defending Hochul's "experience."

[cinyc]

I think clerking for a Supreme Court justice is more impressive and gives greater "experience" than serving one term as a backbench congressperson. This is the weirdest attack ever. He even sounds half-hearted defending Hochul's "experience."

Hochul has held more elective offices than just Congressman.  According to her Wikipedia page, Hochul was Erie County Clerk (an elected position in New York) and was elected to her town board.  She also worked as a staffer on Capitol Hill and in Albany.  So objectively, Hochul has more experience in politics than Wu.  Which may or may not be a good thing, depending on your perspective.

[NickCT]

I just have to laugh, because I remember seeing Teachout on All In a long time ago and thinking she was the real deal, and now she's really taken off, and could come within striking distance of Cuomo.

[xavier110]

Also, everyone, please look at these statistics before comparing Teachout to typical protest candidates:

Teachout trumps Crist in references on Twitter: http://topsy.com/analytics?q1=zephyr%20teachout&q2=charlie%20crist&via=Topsy

She's everyone trumped Cuomo (full names) recently: http://topsy.com/analytics?q1=zephyr%20teachout&q2=andrew%20cuomo&via=Topsy

Last names, there's a wider gap in Cuomo's favor: http://topsy.com/analytics?q1=teachout&q2=cuomo&via=Topsy

But, for perspective, let's throw in Astorino: http://topsy.com/analytics?q1=zephyr%20teachout&q2=andrew%20cuomo&q3=rob%20astorino&via=Topsy

http://topsy.com/analytics?q1=teachout&q2=cuomo&q3=astorino&via=Topsy


I just don't know how some dismiss her so quickly. Anyway, tomorrow(!) is judgment day!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How popular is fracking upstate? Is it resented as big companies trespassing on land or do people hope it'll lower gas prices?

The good thing is this whatever happens, Cuomo's dreams of higher office are effectively crushed

Less popular than downstate. Upstaters oppose it 53-39.

http://polhudson.lohudblogs.com/2013/11/26/poll-fracking-opposition-increases-new-york/

[Progressive]

Media swarm surrounded Teachout as she voted….I a shocked.

[Eraserhead]

Any early turnout reports? Polls opened at 6 AM in NYC and the surrronding counties. Polls don't open until 12 PM in the rest of the state.

[Eraserhead]

Cuomo will vote at 10:30 AM after originally saying he would vote at 5 PM. He's apparently trying to avoid anti-fracking protesters at his polling place.

[Paul Kemp]

Proudly cast my vote for Moonbase Lessonplan this morning.

[Eraserhead]

For what it's worth (perhaps not much):

September Surprise (@SeptSurprise) tweeted at 9:09am - 9 Sep 14:

#TeachoutWu is #KillingIt in exit polls on UWS of NYC (https://twitter.com/SeptSurprise/status/509327803717021696)

[Eraserhead]

WSJ actually finds a Cuomo-Wu voter:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/primary-day-for-cuomo-teachout-1410260335

[Eraserhead]

Hearing turnout is very low so far in Queens.

[Smash255]

I voted just before 9:30, I was the 2nd voter in my precinct (it could have even been entire polling place which has several precincts in one, but I believe it was for the precinct).

 I'm in South Farmingdale which is a fairly Republican portion of Nassau County.

[Eraserhead]

I voted just before 9:30, I was the 2nd voter in my precinct (it could have even been entire polling place which has several precincts in one, but I believe it was for the precinct).

 I'm in South Farmingdale which is a fairly Republican portion of Nassau County.

How'd you vote (if you don't mind sharing)?

[rpryor03]

NYT decides not to endorse.

[Eraserhead]

NYT decides not to endorse.

Heh, old news. They did endorse Wu for Lt. Gov. though.

[Smash255]

I voted just before 9:30, I was the 2nd voter in my precinct (it could have even been entire polling place which has several precincts in one, but I believe it was for the precinct).

 I'm in South Farmingdale which is a fairly Republican portion of Nassau County.

How'd you vote (if you don't mind sharing)?

Cuomo/Hochul.  While I don't agree with Cuomo on everything I think he has done a pretty good job.  I'm not one to jump on the Primary protest candidate bandwagon unless someone really shows that they are garbage or have serious ethical issues(would have supported Lamont if I was in CT in 06, supproted Rangel's primary challenger).  I also don't really get much of the liberal opposition to Cuomo.