Cuomo v. Teachout

[jaichind]

I was considering changing my registration to Dem this cycle just so I can vote for Cuomo over Teachout.  More importantly since this one is more up in the air, I really wanted to vote for Kathy Hochul over Tim Wu.  Too late to do this.   Hopefully Kathy Hochul wins.

[jaichind]

When do polls close?

9PM EST

[jaichind]

Wu isn't doing all that well.

And Raimondo wins!

Yup, looks like upstaters hate an Asian.

I think it has much more to do with  Hochul being from Upstate NY.

[jaichind]

As expected,  Hochul is running ahead of Cuomo in Upstate NY.  I guess the reverse will be true in NYC.

[jaichind]

What has just happened in Erie?

I saw the same thing.  The Cuomo-Hochul gap there is now massive.  One of the two numbers must be a typo.

[jaichind]

Okay something just happened and now Cuomo leads 63-33 again?

They fixed the typo in Erie

[jaichind]

Why don't they call it for Cuomo and Hochul.  Enough votes has come in for different types of areas to make it clear that both would win, Hochul by a smaller margin of course but she will win.

[jaichind]

The Cuomo-Hochul spread is a lot smaller than I thought.  The Cuomo machine did its job in getting the machine vote to Hochul well.

[jaichind]

The Cuomo-Hochul spread is a lot smaller than I thought.  The Cuomo machine did its job in getting the machine vote to Hochul well.

And whatever it did not, she did a good job compensating in the Upstate. She is a solid politician, always liked her.

My thoughts exactly.  I really like Hochul.  I considered switching my registration on temp basis to Dem just to vote for her in the primary as I will still vote for the GOP ticket in the general election.  I also wanted to vote to Cuomo in the Dem primary in such a scenario as I have a high level of respect for him although I will not vote for him in the general.

[jaichind]

How much was Teachout's victory in Romney counties due to Republicans trying to unseat Cuomo?

It's a closed primary...

Then that confuses me as to how she did so much better upstate than in the city, unless it has to do with anti-NYC sentiment (e.g. Tio Hardiman doing so well downstate vs Quinn).

Lets be clear, the total turnout in upstate NY where she did well was very low.  So it was more of a story of a lack of a Dem/Cuomo political machine there to turn out Cuomo voters.  In places where such a machine is in place Cuomo steamrolled Teachout.

[jaichind]

Just a personal note me and Teachout.  She and I were actually attending Yale around the same time with a three year overlap (she was a year ahead of me.)  I do remember her as the Editor‐in‐Chief of The Yale Daily News Magazine.  It would not surprise me if she and I attended some political science class at the same time.  Anyway none of this would get me to vote for her as if given a chance I would for sure vote Cuomo. 

[jaichind]

Just a personal note me and Teachout.  She and I were actually attending Yale around the same time with a three year overlap (she was a year ahead of me.)  I do remember her as the Editor‐in‐Chief of The Yale Daily News Magazine.  It would not surprise me if she and I attended some political science class at the same time.  Anyway none of this would get me to vote for her as if given a chance I would for sure vote Cuomo.  

WTF? Why didn't you ask her out?

This is impossible for a couple of reasons

1) Let me clarify what I said.  Back in college I knew of Teachout but I did not know her.  I knew a bunch of people on the Yale Daily News Magazine so it is very possible if not likely I have meet her in some social gatherings but that is not the same as having known her.

2) As a personal matter to be applied to myself, I am not for miscegenation.  Ergo I would not consider dating someone that is not Chinese.  My current DW is indeed of Chinese origin just like myself.

[jaichind]

I realize there's something about this whole affair I don't understand, in terms of New York law: given that the primary is run by the state for multiple parties, why didn't the Working Families Party have a primary on the same day, rather than determining its ballot line earlier at some sort of convention, as it did?

I believe Working Families Party selects its candidates by convention.  In fact I think that is how Teachout even got to run for governor.  What took place was that  the Working Families Party considered nominating Teachout for governor but eventually at the convention decided to back Cuomo.  But it seems the process got Teachout interested in running in the Dem primary.

[jaichind]

2) As a personal matter to be applied to myself, I am not for miscegenation.  Ergo I would not consider dating someone that is not Chinese.  My current DW is indeed of Chinese origin just like myself.

The fact you apply it only too yourself doesn't make it any less horribly racist.

A personal lifestyle choice, true, but a theroughly racist one just the same.

Sorry for getting off topic and sounding like a smart aleck.  I guess upon further reflection I think both the miscegenation and racism terminology are not appropriate here in the sense that my views on this is much more narrow-minded than those two terms would imply when it comes how my views on how I would approach love and marriage for myself.   Both the word racism and miscegenation really places boundaries at the racial level.  If that were the case then I would be fine with a spouse that is of the Mongoloid race (like Japanese or Koreans.)  That is for sure not the case.  A better term would be nationalist in terms on how I would select a mate since I would only accept a Chinese.  In fact even that is too open-minded as I would insist that she is fluent in Chinese  Mandarin and a Chinese-American that does not speak Chinese well would not be acceptable either.  So there is a culturalist angle to that as well.  So the best way to label my view on love and marriage for myself would be a nationalist-culturalist and racist most likely is too open minded of a term. My fault for using the term miscegenation as that gives a falsely open minded view of my algorithm for selecting a mate for myself.

[jaichind]

My various trips around Westchester county where I plus other parts of NY state last couple of months live gives me the view that this election for Astorino is more about him building up his brand, especially in Westchester.  This seems to make sense as there is no chance that Astorino could win anyway.  While there is no sign of the Astorino campaign outside of Westchester county, the Astorino campaign is quite significant in Westchester, especially in places around where I live, Scarsdale and surrounding townships.  I go jogging after work and it takes me to all sort of places in Scarsdale as well as surrounding townships.  I can say for sure that the Astorino campaign is much more active than Paladino campaign in 2010 in my part of Westchester.   The level of support seems to be relatively high in surrounding townships of Scarsale and is related to household income.  In Scarsdale itself, the $200K-$500K household income areas has a significant where household income have a significant Astorino presence.  The $500K+ household income areas of Scarsdale are uaually non-political and that is no different this year.  In the surrounding townships of Scarsdale where household income are around $150K-$300K the level of support for Astorino seems even higher.  In other parts of Westchseter  where I have visited last couple of months I see the same pattern.  Outside of Westchester I do not see much of the Astorino campaign regardless of the what the household income are.  This has me convinced that for Astorino it is more about the Westchester election of 2017 and him rising in the ranks of the GOP in NY so he has a shot at higher office in case the GOP fortunes in NY state revives.   

[jaichind]

My various trips around Westchester county where I plus other parts of NY state last couple of months live gives me the view that this election for Astorino is more about him building up his brand, especially in Westchester.  This seems to make sense as there is no chance that Astorino could win anyway.  While there is no sign of the Astorino campaign outside of Westchester county, the Astorino campaign is quite significant in Westchester, especially in places around where I live, Scarsdale and surrounding townships.  I go jogging after work and it takes me to all sort of places in Scarsdale as well as surrounding townships.  I can say for sure that the Astorino campaign is much more active than Paladino campaign in 2010 in my part of Westchester.   The level of support seems to be relatively high in surrounding townships of Scarsale and is related to household income.  In Scarsdale itself, the $200K-$500K household income areas has a significant where household income have a significant Astorino presence.  The $500K+ household income areas of Scarsdale are uaually non-political and that is no different this year.  In the surrounding townships of Scarsdale where household income are around $150K-$300K the level of support for Astorino seems even higher.  In other parts of Westchseter  where I have visited last couple of months I see the same pattern.  Outside of Westchester I do not see much of the Astorino campaign regardless of the what the household income are.  This has me convinced that for Astorino it is more about the Westchester election of 2017 and him rising in the ranks of the GOP in NY so he has a shot at higher office in case the GOP fortunes in NY state revives.   

Lawn signs don't vote and Astorino (and any other Republican) has no future statewide in New York politics.

Lets be clear.  I am not making any predictions on how many votes Astorino wil get in Westchester either in absolute or relative terms.  I am merely making a comment on what I perceive how Astorino  is investing his resources and his motivations might be behind such a distribution of investments.

[jaichind]

http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/2014/10/zephyr_teachouts_campaign_manager_endorses_andrew_cuomo_for_governor.php

Zephyr Teachout's Campaign Manager Endorses Andrew Cuomo for Governor

[jaichind]

I think it will end up being something like 57-35-7

[jaichind]

I doubt this will be true, but this little tidbit appeared in Dicker's column in today's New York Post:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The main article discusses how Cuomo is setting himself up for a 2020 run if Hillary loses in 2016.

To be fair, deep down I think Cuomo prefers if the State Senate goes back to GOP.  This way he has a way to hedge himself against De Blasio.

[jaichind]

For the forth year in a row, I was voter number 1 in my Scarsdale voting location.  I did consider voting for Cuomo on the Independence line but in the end went with Astorino.  I congratulate Cuomo on his expected victory and wish him all the best in his second term hopefully working hand-in-hand with the new GOP state senate.