Cuomo v. Teachout

[cinyc]

If she couldn't get the Working Families Party endorsement, why would she win the less-liberal Democratic primary?

Internet "progressives" are convinced that because they think Cuomo is a DINO and a "Republican", all Democrats must hate him.  So says the echo chamber.  Yet independent polling shows Cuomo has wide support among Democrats.  And which type of Democrats like him the most?  Self-described Liberal Democrats, according to the polls.

[cinyc]

In many respects, this is no different from the very conservative voters who still opt for Vitter or DesJardins... it's the phenomenon of partisanship at work.

What I find weird, though, is that Cuomo's key is boosting turnout. The more publicized the battle, the more Dems will come vote for him. A low turnout affair only aids the pissed off Teachout slice... so...

Low turnout doesn't necessarily help Teachout.  Low turnout in NY primaries usually means that only the party bosses and their underlings are voting, which helps the person actually nominated by the party - Cuomo.

If Andrew Cuomo loses the primary, does he still appear on the ballot on the WFP line?

Unless he turns it down. 

[cinyc]

When are the polls closed?

They're not even open yet.  The election is next Tuesday.  IIRC, New York polls close at 9pm.

[cinyc]

Atlas Forum should do a drinking game for the NY primary. Every time Teachout wins a county, take a shot.

That's a great game if you don't want to get drunk.  Teachout's chances to win counties are overrated.

[cinyc]

I think  basically everything suggests panic - I don't know what else he'd have to do to convey "full-blown panic"? Arrest her?

https://twitter.com/AndreaWNYC/status/507551911609106432

If Cuomo were in panic mode, he'd be running ads against Teachout. I haven't seen one yet.

[cinyc]

He amped up his own personal ad spending -- they've decided not to even mention Teachout by name and are letting surrogates put down Teachout/Wu ('we don't know who these people are,' 'Teachout elevated Astorino in debate,' etc). They wouldn't dare run negative ads against her

If Cuomo were truly in trouble, he'd be savagely attacking Teachout as an inexperienced radical who would take New York backwards.  Instead, he is running positive ads touting his record and putting the public on notice that he backs Hochul for Lt. Governor.  He is sitting on millions of dollars in his campaign account.  Why not use it to try to run up the tally in the primary?

[cinyc]

I wish PPP would poll this (and the LG race).

Marist and Siena are about due to do their monthly New York poll this week.  They haven't polled the primary in the past, but just before the election would be a good time to start.

Marist's last poll in August showed that 78% of New York registered voters had never heard of or had no opinion of Teachout, and, among those who did, her approvals were underwater, even among Democrats (10-16) and self-described Liberals (11-17).  It's hard to see how any unknown candidate with bad favorables can win anything - or even come close.  It's not like Cuomo's favorables are in negative territory.  He's more-favored-than-not by all voters, Democrats and liberals.

[cinyc]

I'm in the NYC Media Market so I see all the Cuomo ads, and the ones I've been seeing in the last few days are basically "KATHY HOCHUL IS MY RUNNING MATE VOTE FOR HER TOO PLS" so her numbers must be in very poor shape.

I doubt her numbers are bad.  I suspect there are a lot of undecideds in any poll of the Lt. Governor's race.  It's much more likely that nobody knows who the Lt. Governor candidates or who they are affiliated with, and Cuomo is making sure that voters get the message that Hochul is with him through his ads and robocalls. 

Hochul will really clean up in Western New York.  Western New Yorkers have a history of overwhelmingly supporting candidates from their own region.  The aim of Cuomo's ads is to get her numbers up in the rest of the state.

[cinyc]

Teachout would easily beat the Republican if she somehow won the nomination, so there should be no worries about that.

Teachout would probably still get over 60% of the vote against the Republican candidate if she ends up beating Cuomo.

Considering that Cuomo would still be on the ballot on three minor party lines, I doubt that.  There's a good chance she and Cuomo would split the Democratic vote, allowing Astorino to win.  And even if Cuomo were to back out of the race after losing the Democratic primary, I doubt an unknown ultra-liberal with no political experience would do well enough to get 60%.  Astorino would clean up Upstate and in the suburbs.

[cinyc]

Would be nice if we got to see some polling. Even internal polling is better than nothing.

The momentum is going toward Teachout and Wu, but they have no real chance of winning.

I'm thinking high 30's for Teachout, but wouldn't be surprised to see her reach 40%. 42 or 43 percent would be a shock, but I refuse to rule it out. As far as Wu goes, she should get into the low 40's. Mid 40's would be a shock, but I refuse to rule it out.

The map will probably look a lot like a presidential election in NY. Teachout will play the part of the republican and Cuomo the part of the democrat, in that Teachout will carry upstate new york, but Cuomo's downstate margins will be far too big to overcome.

I'm not sure where this idea that there is momentum going for Teachout is coming from.  She's still way too unknown and going up against a sitting governor who is popular, especially among self-described liberals and Democrats.  And I'm not sure why the more liberal candidate should carry Upstate New York, where she's even less known than she is in NYC.  It usually works the other way around.  Upstate is more conservative than NYC.

My best guess is that Teachout doesn't exceed 25% in a very low turnout primary where the party establishment - all backing Cuomo - dominates the vote.

[cinyc]

Even absolute nobodies get 25% of the vote in New York state (see 2010 Democratic Senatorial Primary). Teachout will easily clear 30%.

Gillibrand still is not as well-known or liked as Cuomo.  Hillary Clinton won almost 82% of the vote in the 2000 Democratic primary and 84% in the 2006 primary.  So, no, absolute nobodies don't usually get 25% in New York Democratic Primaries.  Cuomo is as well-known to New Yorkers as Hillary, not Gillibrand.

[cinyc]

I don't agree with Wulfric's point - he'd be correct if Teachout was just a generic protest vote upstate voters could use to vote against Cuomo, but since she's actually running a campaign I'd expect her to do much better than generic R in Democratic strongholds. But to address your point, it's fairly common for something like that to happen - see FL Gov 2014. Rich overperformed (and actually won counties) in north Florida and the Panhandle, while underperforming in South Florida and I-4. Do the voters of Holmes County really prefer the liberal former state senator from South Florida with no money and no campaign north of I-4? Of course not, it's a way of voting against the Democratic establishment and their candidate. If voters upstate dislike the Cuomo administration they'll vote for the guy running against him, simple as that (and yeah, I realize the differences between FL and NY, especially the lack of the ancestral Southern Dem population like the Panhandle has, but still).

One major difference between New York and Florida is that there are three candidates in the race, not two.  If Teachout and Credico are both relative unknowns, why wouldn't they split the Cuomo protest vote Upstate?  Teachout would probably benefit a little from being listed first on the ballot this cycle, though.  On the other hand, she doesn't have a traditional first name, like Randy Credico.

I can see Teachout doing well in traditional Democratic Upstate strongholds like Tompkins (Ithaca), Ulster (Kingston), Columbia (Hudson) and maybe even Albany (Albany) counties.  Outside of those areas, I think she underperforms her statewide average Upstate, particularly in Erie County (Buffalo), where increased turnout for Cuomo's running mate should help him.  Western New York tends to turn out when one of their own is on a statewide ballot.

[cinyc]

I think clerking for a Supreme Court justice is more impressive and gives greater "experience" than serving one term as a backbench congressperson. This is the weirdest attack ever. He even sounds half-hearted defending Hochul's "experience."

Hochul has held more elective offices than just Congressman.  According to her Wikipedia page, Hochul was Erie County Clerk (an elected position in New York) and was elected to her town board.  She also worked as a staffer on Capitol Hill and in Albany.  So objectively, Hochul has more experience in politics than Wu.  Which may or may not be a good thing, depending on your perspective.

[cinyc]

Can someone provide the AP results page for NY???

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_county/NY_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[cinyc]

Manhattan is voting Cuomo/Wu so far with 15% in.

[cinyc]

94% reporting, Cuomo at 61.8%. Might well cross 62%.

He probably will.  There also should be some uncounted absentees, which theoretically could break either way, but in practice probably benefit the machine candidate.

[cinyc]

The question is: will he win 2/3 in November?

Maybe.  Cuomo only got 62.5% in 2010, but Paladino really cleaned up in Western New York, which Astorino won't do.  Astorino might do a little better in the NYC suburbs than Paladino, but probably not by that much.   So Cuomo cracking 2/3rds is certainly possible.

[cinyc]

With 98% reporting, Cuomo is at 62.1%.

Westchester is probably the most out at 82% in.  If past performance of that county's Board of Elections bureaucrats is typical, they've probably gone home for the night and won't report new results until tomorrow afternoon.  Westchester is one of the slowest-counting New York counties.

[cinyc]

With 98% reporting, Cuomo is at 62.1%.

Westchester is probably the most out at 82% in.  If past performance of that county's Board of Elections bureaucrats is typical, they've probably gone home for the night and won't report new results until tomorrow afternoon.  Westchester is one of the slowest-counting New York counties.

Westchester finally got their act together and posted results with 100% reporting on their website before the night was over.  Cuomo took 61.97% of the vote in the county, within a tenth or two of his actual statewide result.  AP hasn't updated their numbers to reflect Westchester's final tally.

[cinyc]

Hawkins will be holding a campaign rally with Ralph Nader in NYC next weekend!

Very excited to attend! With Cuomo's campaign collapsing into farce, double digits is looking more and more attainable!

Yuck. This makes me consider switching my endorsement. Nader has caused more damage to this country than Cuomo ever will. Too bad Rent Is Too Damn High isn't an option.

That's why I never supported Hawkins. I'd vote for another joke party if I lived in NY.

Unfortunately the only other options are Astorino and a libertarian. I guess it doesn't matter too much anyway since his candidacy is solely to send a message, but Naderites always leave a bad taste in my mouth.

There's also a Sapient Party candidate for Governor on the ballot.

[cinyc]

I doubt this will be true, but this little tidbit appeared in Dicker's column in today's New York Post:

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The main article discusses how Cuomo is setting himself up for a 2020 run if Hillary loses in 2016.