Cuomo v. Teachout

[Progressive]

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2014/08/pef-endorses-teachout/

The state’s second-largest public workers union on Thursday endorsed Zephyr Teachout’s insurgent Democratic primary campaign for governor over incumbent Andrew Cuomo.

As I'm sure many of you know, NY is the most unionized state by % in the country. This is a big deal.

[Progressive]

Wonderful news!

Not really. I think many progressive New Yorkers are actually annoyed by Teachout's campaign AND I'm sure some more well-known liberals such as Mark Green feel that they could have amassed even greater establishment support.

[Progressive]

But is she on the ballot?

Yes. As of a day ago. She has been certified to be on the ballot, and my absentee ballot, according to elections officials in my local BOE, will have her name on it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/nyregion/cuomo-primary-opponent-can-run-judge-rules.html?_r=0

[Progressive]

I'm pretty sure Mark Green is basically a perennial loser, so an unknown force like Teachout is doing well for her name recognition.

Lots of Democratic has-beens or lower-profile electeds who do not like Cuomo.

[Progressive]

So is this a serious campaign now?

Only in the eyes of some liberals on this forum.

And only the second largest public employee union in the state.

http://www.thenation.com/article/181289/how-zephyr-teachout-became-contender#

I am voting for Cuomo but I really think Zephyr could alter the landscape, especially if she wins counties.

Here's the thing….
Counties upstate... with conservative Democrats who don't pay much attention to "downstate" politics may vote against Cuomo in the primary because they don't support Cuomo's gun policies etc. See Gillibrand and Gail Goode, a no-name challenger who wound up doing better upstate than downstate despite her running to the left of Gillibrand.

Counties downstate… NYC, Long Island, Hudson Suburbs (Westchester, Rockland etc) will anchor Cuomo in his re-election, but, many of these Working Families Party-esque voters will support Teachout, and now she has inroads with Diane Ravitch, PCCC, and the Public Employees Federation.


The danger, as I said before, also lies with Hochul. She is meeting largely with elected officials (not much with voters), and Wu may earn support from communities that would be glad to see the first ever Asian-American statewide official in NY.

[Progressive]

If she couldn't get the Working Families Party endorsement, why would she win the less-liberal Democratic primary?

Because very few people are actually registered WFP. Most of the WFP Committee Members are aligned with WFP due to association with a certain interest group, usually a union. There was pressure from individual unions to back Cuomo. And NY's progressive base still lies in the Democratic Party…WFP is instrumental in Democratic primaries through endorsements and field organizing, but not necessarily in determining the pulse of the Democratic wing of the party.

And I don't love Cuomo but I do not feel that Zephyr Teachout has earned the governorship at all. There are many talented individuals in New York who could have given Cuomo a serious, sincere, and substantive challenge.

[Progressive]

Hearing rumblings that NYT may endorse her.

That would be an incredible boost to her campaign, and a shocking one.

[Progressive]

Hearing rumblings that NYT may endorse her.

That would be an incredible boost to her campaign, and a shocking one.

Genuine question- when was the last time a newspaper endorsement dramatically changed the course of an election?

Well, not dramatically, but it's possible that the NY Times endorsement made the difference when Ned Lamont primaried Joe Lieberman.

Statewide, you are right, it won't affect the race. But there are certain communities that are known as the NYT Editorial areas, where the NYT nod almost always helps Council candidates etc clinch the nominations. The Upper West Side (especially), Upper East Side, Park Slope, Downtown Brooklyn, etc, have huge turnout #s even in uncompetitive, and the NYT endorsement could earn Teachout thousands of votes in these high turnout communities. You have to keep in mind that though Cuomo has a huge war-chest, his support among prime Democrats is tepid, and many don't even realize there is a primary.

[Progressive]

UPDATE:

New York State NOW (National Organization of Women) just backed Teachout. She continues to rack in establishment support…

http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/219249/state-now-chapter-endorses-teachout/

[Progressive]

BREAKING: Friend told me that Teachout just got Sierra Club endorsement, to be announced soon.

[Progressive]

I suggest everyone read the NYT editorial, it is a near endorsement of Teachout, via the wording.

Additionally, of note, Josh Fox, director of Gasland (about tracking), endorsed Teachout as did a prominent Bangladeshi political group--representing thousands mainly in Brooklyn and Queens. Getting very interesting.

[Progressive]

The Nation has just endorsed Teachout and the Rochester City Newspaper just published an article outlining Teachout's rise in this race. http://www.rochestercitynewspaper.com/rochester/teachouts-emerging-voice/Content?oid=2426828

[Progressive]

This may actually hurt Teachout. People may see Wu as the more viable of the two and focus on making sure Kathy Hochul doesn't win the primary.

[Progressive]

I think the big question here is how to NYC suburbs break down the vote. Nameliy: Nassau, Suffolk (Long Island), Westchester, but also suburban NYC including largely ethnic-white parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island. I don't expect Teachout to do well here, though, perhaps making matters worse for Cuomo in suburbia is that there are few (if any, that I can think of) state legislative races in the suburbs. This means that suburban New Yorkers, middle of the road Democrats, may be even less likely to turn out than usual.

Areas with major state legislative primaries:

Upper Manhattan: (a number of Assembly seats and the Adriano Espaillat State Senate seat). Largely black and Dominican and Puerto Rican.

Upper East Side: Open Assembly seat, large share are NYT readers, can be good for Wu, not sure about Teachout, since UES-ers are generally less liberal than rest of Manhattan.

Brooklyn: Primaries abound both in Brownstone Brooklyn (Teachout Heaven) and Caribbean-Brooklyn (heavy-union). 1199SEIU and TWU100 represent huge chunks of Brooklynites in the Caribbean communities. They've backed Cuomo, but a hot Assembly race in Brownstone Brooklyn may bring out Teachout voters.

Queens: Primaries abound in ethnic-Jewish, Asian, and mixed black/Caribbean communities here. Former City Comptroller John Liu, NYC's first Asian-American citywide officeholder is on the ballot and is backed by most unions, elected officials, and the party. This might boost Wu, big time.

Bronx: A number of primaries but the Jeff Klein v. Koppell race along with a few Assembly races will bring out a mix of upper middle class, but liberal, Jewish voters and black and Latino voters in the Assembly races.

So, assuming the competitive legislative districts in NYC have higher turnout for Gov/LG race, where does this lead Cuomo, Hochul, Teachout, and Wu? Short answer: no idea. Long answer: It depends--will people follow their unions? Are minority voters dissatisfied enough with Cuomo to vote for Teachout? Will Asian-Americans vote for Wu, the way they are expected to in the competitive State Senate races?

[Progressive]

Mark Green, 2001 Dem nominee for NYC Mayor and former NYC Public Advocate will be endorsing Teachout-Wu today, according to my friend who is somewhat "in the know."

[Progressive]

In addition to the Ruffalo endorsement (which will probably only generate headlines, if few votes), a slew of local newspapers have endorsed Teachout including the Hudson Valley News, representing part of NYC's northern suburbs. Also, Newsday, a newspaper for populous Long Island has been giving Teachout - Wu multiple articles of coverage a day.

I think smaller papers are endorsing Teachout and Wu, and covering them, because Cuomo has been so uninterested in giving them the time of day.

[Progressive]

http://observer.com/2014/09/wu-for-no-2/

The New York Observer just backed Wu for LG.

[Progressive]

I also wonder what a Teachout/Hochul voter is like if such a thing even exists (it'd be female I suppose).

Low information conservative (pro-gun/anti-gay) Democrats?

Not necessarily. Anti-Cuomo voters in Western NY who don't like Cuomo (either he's too conservative or too liberal) but like Hochul because of her Buffalo roots.

[Progressive]

I voted for Teachout and wrote in Christine Quinn for LG.

[Progressive]

I voted for Teachout and wrote in Christine Quinn for LG.

Weren't you voting for Cuomo? I'm glad you changed your mind, now you can keep your username

I changed my mind (solidly) when Mark Green endorsed Teachout. I know that sounds stupid, but, I've always admired Mark Green and felt comfortable in his vision of NY. The Times non-endorsement of Cuomo also helped. This is a protest vote, obviously. I wanted Quinn for LG before Hochul was announced.

[Progressive]

Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.

[Progressive]

Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.

What would you consider an underperformance though?

Barring Teachout and Wu both gettung under 15%, I think they will over-preform. I mean, they both started out unknown.

Any challenger (even a perennial non-candidate) will get some % of the vote, probably 10% at very least maybe even 15%. After all, Gail Goode, got 24% of the vote against Gillibrand in the 2010 Senate primary election and no one, literally, no one knew who Goode was. She got no endorsements, etc.

If Teachout gets under 30% of the vote, I think that would be a disappointment.

[Progressive]

A few things here…

1. Israel IS a New York issue because the State of New York purchases bonds in Israel AND has contracts with Israeli security, tech, etc. companies, and "talk" is not cheap when it comes to this issue.

2. IF Teachout and Cuomo were somehow to get the same number of votes, Teachout would have to win progressives in the city and anti-Cuomo people in Upstate New York. Cuomo will do well in Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester. These are moderate Democratic counties with large Italian populations where there is little WFP and agri-progressive grassroots organizing. Run of the mill, standard, unimpressed with Teachout's "change" and "progress" agenda.

3. The concern about Cuomo is that if Hochul loses (or if Cuomo gets under 70% of the vote), the third parties, minor but somewhat powerful, may no longer be interested in dealing with Cuomo and settling for tepid achievements.

[Progressive]

Anyone want to make a prediction about an off-chance result?

For example, if you really think Teachout might win or Malcolm Smith might remain in the State Senate, etc.

[Progressive]

I don't think anyone, in 2016, will really pounce on Hillary for not supporting somewhat of a fringe candidate who happened to get lucky and capitalized (at least in terms of endorsements, we'll see what happens on Tuesday) on a lot of lingering anti-Cuomo anger---and renewed anger about Kathy Hochul.

Will Hillary realistically move a lot of votes for Cuomo? Probably not but she will bring out some.

The real 9/9 path to votes is who is brought out by their respective union, elected official, newspaper, or an a pro-Cuomo or anti-Cuomo disposition.

In other words, the tepid voter will not show up to vote on 9/9 UNLESS: the union encouraged them to come out, an elected official does, a newspaper makes a compelling point, AND, and perhaps most likely, you are either anti-Cuomo or pro-Cuomo.