Cuomo v. Teachout

[xavier110]

Great news! Hope she pulls at least 35-40% of the vote.

[xavier110]

Great news! Hope she pulls at least 35-40% of the vote.

I hope she wins

Oh, same. At least she'll have Tompkins County.

[xavier110]

So is this a serious campaign now?

Only in the eyes of some liberals on this forum.

And only the second largest public employee union in the state.

http://www.thenation.com/article/181289/how-zephyr-teachout-became-contender#

I am voting for Cuomo but I really think Zephyr could alter the landscape, especially if she wins counties.

But you call yourself a progressive?

And ooh, Teachout is not holding back, as she shouldn't - a no good, conservative crook runs NY. ABC profiled her, calling her the 'thorn in Cuomo's side.'

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/08/the-thorn-in-andrew-cuomos-side-10-questions-with-zephyr-teachout/#.U-6HiYeBgky.twitter

[xavier110]

If she couldn't get the Working Families Party endorsement, why would she win the less-liberal Democratic primary?

Didn't he buy the line after making his pledge?

[xavier110]

If she couldn't get the Working Families Party endorsement, why would she win the less-liberal Democratic primary?

Internet "progressives" are convinced that because they think Cuomo is a DINO and a "Republican", all Democrats must hate him.  So says the echo chamber.  Yet independent polling shows Cuomo has wide support among Democrats.  And which type of Democrats like him the most?  Self-described Liberal Democrats, according to the polls.

In many respects, this is no different from the very conservative voters who still opt for Vitter or DesJardins who pay mere lip service to the values they claim to stand for... it's the phenomenon of partisanship at work.

What I find weird, though, is that Cuomo's key is boosting turnout. The more publicized the battle, the more Dems will come vote for him. A low turnout affair only aids the pissed off Teachout slice... so...

[xavier110]

Hearing rumblings that NYT may endorse her.

[xavier110]

The most interesting (and highly possible) prospect sans a Zephyr surge through MSM endorsements is Cuomo winning but Hochul, who has no base among Dem primary voters, losing.

[xavier110]

And the NYT continues its Teachout coverage!

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/08/25/nyregion/cuomo-opponent-unbowed-by-underdog-status.html?referrer=&_r=0

[xavier110]

My prediction:

82% Cuomo
17% Teachout
  1% Credico

Veteran NY journalist Joe Mahoney says he hears of upper-echelon Dems being stunned by Teachout's rise... 17% is around what Tasini and Goode got with little effort and support--Teachout's floor. At this point, I would guess she pushes 200k and passes 30%.

[xavier110]

What's the likelihood Teachout wins the WFP endorsement, along with their ballot line in November?

Cuomo already has it after negotiating a deal with its party bosses, thereby winning the convention. So if Teachout were to pull off the "upset of the century," she would still face him on the Independence and Working Families lines (and I guess this woman's party line, or whatever they invented), along with the Republican nominee.

[xavier110]

BREAKING: New York Times publicly rebukes Cuomo, declines to endorse him, essentially endorses Teachout (as good as she'll get from them)

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/27/opinion/editorial-governor-cuomo-ethics-reform-hinders-endorsement-zephyr-teachout.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

!!!!

The Teachout campaign must be thrilled--the whispers I heard were right.

[xavier110]

This is such a fast turn of events. Not sure voters are going to change that quickly.

I think she could possibly even hit 40%. The people who will turn out will be disenchanted with him, her name recognition is only climbing, and the NYT rebuke (and nearly uniformly positive ink about Teachout) will boost her among the reliable latte libs and those already concerned about her pet issues like Common Core, fracking, etc.

[xavier110]

A Times endorsement would have been a gamechanger. A noncommital is a nothingburger.

Primary challengers and tend to be strongest in small states. In one of the largest states in the country, it's tougher for a Zephyr Teachout to get sufficient publicity.

It doesn't read like a nothingburger, and based on the social media reaction I've seen, it seems like a big deal -- at least among the politico types who are now eyeing this campaign. Needless to say, Zephyr Teachout is not another Jonathan Tasini or Gail Goode. We'll just have to wait and see how the next two weeks go.

[xavier110]

Any realistic chance Teachout could carry a single county (and if so which one)?

Tompkins... any anti-fracking upstate counties, probably

[xavier110]

The New York Times endorses Teachout's running mate Tim Wu

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/opinion/timothy-wu-for-lieutenant-governor.html?ref=opinion

[xavier110]

Some gems from this: Cuomo potentially dropping Hochul, all agree Teachout is going to hit at least 30%, and Wu will have a closet for an office if he wins

http://nypost.com/2014/09/01/cuomo-may-dump-hochul-fearing-a-tim-wu-primary-win/

Since camp Cuomo can't really work with the unions, they're meeting with Jewish communities to turn out the vote

http://jpupdates.com/2014/09/01/nygov-cuomo-eyeing-jewish-vote-bid-overcome-teachoutwu-challenge/

[xavier110]

Lol.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ny1.com/content/politics/ny1_political_itch/214793/ny1-itch--how-the-governor-tanks-a-debate/

[xavier110]

Cuomo actually said today that the only number that matters is 50%. Oof. Kinda like the only poll that matters is Election Day.

[xavier110]

Cuomo actually said today that the only number that matters is 50%. Oof. Kinda like the only poll that matters is Election Day.

Wow, are his internals that bad?

https://twitter.com/eorden/status/506862415502655490

They're pulling out de Blasio to wax rhapsodic about conservadem Hochul tomorrow. Fun!

[xavier110]

Cuomo actually said today that the only number that matters is 50%. Oof. Kinda like the only poll that matters is Election Day.

Wow, are his internals that bad?

https://twitter.com/eorden/status/506862415502655490

They're pulling out de Blasio to wax rhapsodic about conservadem Hochul tomorrow. Fun!

I wish de Blasio was supporting Teachout. It would be a lot better for his policy goals (if she were to win, but I guess he thinks that's impossible).

Well, Teachout/Wu are combating the de Blasio event with a rally featuring Mark Ruffalo, who's endorsing them today

[xavier110]

I also wonder what a Teachout/Hochul voter is like if such a thing even exists (it'd be female I suppose).

Female upstater... in fact, I think Teachout may do exceedingly well up there, winning several upstate counties (if not possibly most!)

[xavier110]

Atlas Forum should do a drinking game for the NY primary. Every time Teachout wins a county, take a shot.

I support this idea. Hopefully we'll be getting pretty hammered. Hopefully.

Can anyone think of a comparable primary where the upstart surged in the last three weeks, receiving actual press attention and even some high profile endorsements over the incumbent? Since we have no polls, I sort of have lost all clue about what is going on here... all my recent comparisons are Tea Partiers, and I don't know how they relate to the situation in NY

[xavier110]

Eraserhead is correct - Cuomo's behavior is the best guide that we have, and so far it hasn't betrayed the full-blown panic that we might see if they expected Teachout to take more than a third of the vote (at most).

I think  basically everything suggests panic - I don't know what else he'd have to do to convey "full-blown panic"? Arrest her?

https://twitter.com/AndreaWNYC/status/507551911609106432

[xavier110]

I think  basically everything suggests panic - I don't know what else he'd have to do to convey "full-blown panic"? Arrest her?

https://twitter.com/AndreaWNYC/status/507551911609106432

If Cuomo were in panic mode, he'd be running ads against Teachout. I haven't seen one yet.

He amped up his own personal ad spending -- they've decided not to even mention Teachout by name and are letting surrogates put down Teachout/Wu ('we don't know who these people are,' 'Teachout elevated Astorino in debate,' from Paterson, Klein, etc). They wouldn't dare run negative ads against her and know it could backfire a la Cantor.

[xavier110]

He amped up his own personal ad spending -- they've decided not to even mention Teachout by name and are letting surrogates put down Teachout/Wu ('we don't know who these people are,' 'Teachout elevated Astorino in debate,' etc). They wouldn't dare run negative ads against her

If Cuomo were truly in trouble, he'd be savagely attacking Teachout as an inexperienced radical who would take New York backwards.  Instead, he is running positive ads touting his record and putting the public on notice that he backs Hochul for Lt. Governor.  He is sitting on millions of dollars in his campaign account.  Why not use it to try to run up the tally in the primary?

I just don't think any of that would work - and would reek of desperation - especially in NY. He can't just pummel her now. He obviously did what he needed to do initially: ignore her, not act like there was any challenge to his left. To call her a radical would incense the liberal Democratic base. To call her a carpetbagger would make him look extremely petty after all the court action.

But now...
https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/507607747521544192
https://twitter.com/DavidKlepper/status/507607480667365376

So, in the past two days, it's been Paterson, de Blasio, and now Silver. I don't know how this doesn't mean they're afraid.