Cuomo v. Teachout

[Mister Mets]

A Times endorsement would have been a gamechanger. A noncommital is a nothingburger.

Primary challengers and tend to be strongest in small states. In one of the largest states in the country, it's tougher for a Zephyr Teachout to get sufficient publicity.

[Mister Mets]

A Times endorsement would have been a gamechanger. A noncommital is a nothingburger.

Primary challengers and tend to be strongest in small states. In one of the largest states in the country, it's tougher for a Zephyr Teachout to get sufficient publicity.

It doesn't read like a nothingburger, and based on the social media reaction I've seen, it seems like a big deal -- at least among the politico types who are now eyeing this campaign. Needless to say, Zephyr Teachout is not another Jonathan Tasini or Gail Goode. We'll just have to wait and see how the next two weeks go.

She would have to get the attention of 500,000 primary voters in the next two weeks.

An endorsement would have helped.

[Mister Mets]

After reading the NYT column, it seems pretty weak. It's basically saying "yes, we want to/should endorse Teachout, but we're not going to because reasons". I guess they don't want to make an enemy of Cuomo, but I think by not explicitly endorsing him they already have.

They may believe that a professor isn't ready to be their Governor.

[Mister Mets]

I wonder what the average Cuomo/Wu voter is like (asian-american I guess). I also wonder what a Teachout/Hochul voter is like if such a thing even exists (it'd be female I suppose).

Probably sympathetic to Teachout, but concerned about her qualifications.

Wu has a slightly more impressive background (he has had more impact as an academic) and he's running for a less impressive office against someone with a less impressive background (Hochul is a former county clerk turned one term congresswoman.)

[Mister Mets]

Chill, people. Teachout will be lucky to hit 40% or win a single county. The Cuomo campaign is worried because that an outside--but politically embarrassing--possibility, but they're not 'panicking' because there's no chance of an actual loss.

Eric Cantor wasn't 'panicking' either...

He also wasn't running in a statewide race in New York.

And...just because it's unexpected doesn't mean it can't happen. I don't think Teachout will win either, but Cantor's loss just goes to show you that the unexpected sometimes happens.

Last minute upsets are more likely to happen in congressional primaries or elections in small states (IE- Alaska's 2010 Republican primary.)

That said, 2010 Republican candidate Carl Paladino overperformed polls by about 20 points, so upsets are possible in New York primary electios. However, the Democratic primary will include more votes.

[Mister Mets]

I don't think anyone, in 2016, will really pounce on Hillary for not supporting somewhat of a fringe candidate who happened to get lucky and capitalized (at least in terms of endorsements, we'll see what happens on Tuesday) on a lot of lingering anti-Cuomo anger---and renewed anger about Kathy Hochul.

Will Hillary realistically move a lot of votes for Cuomo? Probably not but she will bring out some.

The real 9/9 path to votes is who is brought out by their respective union, elected official, newspaper, or an a pro-Cuomo or anti-Cuomo disposition.

In other words, the tepid voter will not show up to vote on 9/9 UNLESS: the union encouraged them to come out, an elected official does, a newspaper makes a compelling point, AND, and perhaps most likely, you are either anti-Cuomo or pro-Cuomo.

She robocalled for a corrupt male over a non corrupt female. She believes in the good ol' boys network except when it comes to herself.

I'm sure she believes she has earned her place in the old boy's network.

The Clintons have always rewarded loyalty, and Andrew Cuomo was in their cabinet.

[Mister Mets]

Would low turnout be a good sign for Cuomo?

I'd imagine so.

It tends to favor esablishment types with higher name recognition.

Higher turnout would suggest that people who don't typically vote in primaries have gone out to the polls.

[Mister Mets]

I'm kind of surprised everyone thinks that NYC Dems are all progressives rather than minorities and the working class.

also well-to-do white Bloomberg-Giuliani voters who pat themselves on the back for supporting gay marriage and legal abortion.

I read an interesting piece on different cultures in the US. One argument was that New York City and New England are open-minded for different reasons.

New England was tolerant because they thought it was the right thing to do.

New York City was tolerant because there's money to made. So while New Yorkers are tolerant of gay marriage now, they were also tolerant of slavery pre-Civil War.

[Mister Mets]

What is Zephyr Teachout's future?

Her name recognition is certainly high. If Schneiderman doesn't run for a third term as Attorney General, that is an office through which Teachout can pursue an anti-Wall Street agenda.