AK GOP Primary Prediction

[Senator Cris]

Please predict the AK GOP Senate primary results.

Sullivan (R)
Treadwell (R)
Miller (R)
Jaramillo (R)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sullivan wins, but by much less than expected.  Treadwell seems to have the late momentum (somehow ).

[Vega]

Sullivan 40%

Treadwell 35%

Miller 22%

Jaramillo 3%

[Maxwell]

A just for fun prediction that will be wrong -

34% Miller
32% Treadwell
31% Sullivan
3% Jaramillo

And my actual -

36.8% Treadwell
36.4% Sullivan
26.8% Miller
2% Jaramillo

[Dixie Reborn]

Joe Miller surprises the nation and wins.

[RogueBeaver]

Sullivan by less than 5. Similar to Rauner's primary in March.

[JRP1994]

Here's the real question... If Miller manages an upset, does Alaska become Likely D or Safe D?

[Vega]

Here's the real question... If Miller manages an upset, does Alaska become Likely D or Safe D?

Likely D and third party candidates start to gain ground.

[SPC]

Joe Miller surprises the nation and wins.

Extrapolating the trend from the last two PPP polls would give Treadwell 32%, Sullivan 30%, Miller 26%. In light of the increased importance of momentum in primary elections, a Miller victory does not seem that unreasonable.

[NewYorkExpress]

Treadwell 34%
Sullivan 33%
Miller 32.1%
Jaramillo 0.9%

[IceSpear]

Sullivan 35
Treadwell 33
Miller 30
Jaramillo 2

[ElectionsGuy]

Sullivan - 37%
Treadwell - 32%
Miller - 26%

[The Other Castro]

Sullivan: 41%

Treadwell: 35%

Miller: 23%

Jaramillo: 1%

[Tender Branson]

35.4% Sullivan
31.1% Treadwell
30.2% Miller
  3.3% Jaramillo

[Senator Cris]

The polls average would say...

Sullivan 47%
Treadwell 35%
Miller 19%
Jaramillo 1%

... but the real results will be different.

[KCDem]

Not confident enough to predict, but advantage Sullivan. Miller will do better than the polls suggest, but it won't be enough.

[Miles]

Sullivan- 38%
Treadwell- 34%
Miller- 26%

[Keystone Phil]

I swear I was going to predict an "upset" with Miller in second.