Predict winner/margin for Montana: Steve Daines vs Amanda Curtis

[JRP1994]

Go!

[solarstorm]

The typical Montana statewide election result: 48% D --- 47 % R --- 5% L

[Vega]

The typical Montana statewide election result: 48% D --- 47 % R --- 5% L

[The Other Castro]

The typical Montana statewide election result: 48% D --- 47 % R --- 5% L

lolwut

[Dixie Reborn]

Daines - 57%
Curtis - 40%

[solarstorm]

The typical Montana statewide election result: 48% D --- 47 % R --- 5% L

lolwut

2012 Gubernatorial race:

Steve Bullock: 48.90% --- Rick Hill: 47.34% --- Ron Vandevender: 3.76%

2012 Senatorial race:

Jon Tester: 48.58% --- Denny Rehberg: 44.86% --- Dan Cox: 6.56%

2012 Secretary of State:

Linda McCulloch: 51.32% --- Brad Johnson: 45.22% --- Roger Roots: 3.46%

[IceSpear]

Daines 54
Curtis 40
Roots 6

[NewYorkExpress]

Daines 52%
Curtis 45%

Curtis does a great job energizing the base, but the odds are stacked against her.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With no polling at all yet, it's hard to guess, but going with something around this for now:

Daines: 52%
Curtis: 41%
Roots: 7%

[7,052,770]

Looks like Curtis is a huge proponent of Manchin-Toomey background checks. If she makes this the #1 issue of her campaign, who knows.

[Miles]

Daines- 55%
Curtis- 41%
Roots- 4%

[Vosem]

Apparently Curtis has appeared at rallies sponsored by MAIG, and she's criticized Max Baucus (!) for being too pro-gun. Honestly, I think Daines will eclipse 60.

Daines-61%
Curtis-36%
Roots-3%

[7,052,770]

Apparently Curtis has appeared at rallies sponsored by MAIG, and she's criticized Max Baucus (!) for being too pro-gun. Honestly, I think Daines will eclipse 60.

Daines-61%
Curtis-36%
Roots-3%

You think Curtis speaking out for a policy that 90% of Americans support is going to send Daines over 60?

It's not like she's a hardcore gun grabber or anything (at least as far I could find), just a proponent of national background checks in a bill written by the most conservative Democrat in the Senate and a Tea Party loon.

[Panda Express]

Unfortunately, I don't see her faring too well in Montana in a year like this.

[ElectionsGuy]

Daines - 56%
Curtis - 41%

Apparently Curtis has appeared at rallies sponsored by MAIG, and she's criticized Max Baucus (!) for being too pro-gun. Honestly, I think Daines will eclipse 60.

Daines-61%
Curtis-36%
Roots-3%

You think Curtis speaking out for a policy that 90% of Americans support is going to send Daines over 60?

It's not like she's a hardcore gun grabber or anything (at least as far I could find), just a proponent of national background checks in a bill written by the most conservative Democrat in the Senate and a Tea Party loon.

Pat Toomey is a "tea party loon"??

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Apparently Curtis has appeared at rallies sponsored by MAIG, and she's criticized Max Baucus (!) for being too pro-gun. Honestly, I think Daines will eclipse 60.

Daines-61%
Curtis-36%
Roots-3%

You think Curtis speaking out for a policy that 90% of Americans support is going to send Daines over 60?

It's not like she's a hardcore gun grabber or anything (at least as far I could find), just a proponent of national background checks in a bill written by the most conservative Democrat in the Senate and a Tea Party loon.

This is Montana. Just because it is a purple state on a statewide level does not, in any way, mean that gun control is insanely popular.

Anyway, I predict the following:

Daines: 54%
Curtis: 40%
Roots: 6%

[7,052,770]

This is Montana. Just because it is a purple state on a statewide level does not, in any way, mean that gun control is insanely popular.

I know. All I could find on Curtis's "anti-gun" campaigning is speaking for background checks, which 90% of Americans, and supermajorities in every state, support.

If she actually is some kind of hard core gun control advocate and I just missed that, then I of course retract any previous comments.

Pat Toomey is a "tea party loon"??

"Loon" is a subjective term that I realize some people won't agree with, but yes, I would say so.

[KCDem]

As of now she loses by about 10 points.

Daines 53
Curtis 43
Others 4

Someone will poll here at some point and we'll see if there is any movement. I doubt it, but who knows? Montana is a (relatively) small state and retail politicking may tighten the margin. Curtis' chances of winning are currently <2%

[Vosem]

This is Montana. Just because it is a purple state on a statewide level does not, in any way, mean that gun control is insanely popular.

I know. All I could find on Curtis's "anti-gun" campaigning is speaking for background checks, which 90% of Americans, and supermajorities in every state, support.

That's all there is to it. While 90% of Americans do support it, her outspoken advocacy for it will make it easy to paint her as a gun grabber, and Montana is a very rural, pro-gun state. There's a reason that it failed while 90% of Americans support it, which is that supporting it and then facing a pro-gun electorate is quite perilous because it's easy to say that you 'support gun control initiatives'. Curtis' other problem is that Democrats have almost certainly triaged Montana and won't be helping her out much. Obama lost 55-42 in a more Democratic environment than 2014. I strongly, strongly doubt Curtis will reach 40%. Daines reaching 60, on second thought, might be a bit of a reach in Montana with a third-party on the ballot, but it's not impossible; Rehberg was nothing special as a candidate, but he still beat a legitimate challenger (Monica Lindeen, who passed up this race as she thought her chances of winning were too low) 59-39 in 2006, and eclipsed 60% in 2008. The environment was much worse for Republicans then; Obama came within a few points of winning Montana in 2008.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Amanda Curtis has balls of steel for going against Daines as a freshman state Rep, and with only 3 months to campaign no less. I have enormous respect for her, but barring an Akin-esque gaffe on Daine's part I don't see her winning, though I do believe it will be closer than current polling because of the Libertarian vote.

Daines 50%
Curtis 45%
Roots (L) 5%

[ElectionsGuy]

I think Montana is the 3rd most pro-gun state behind only Alaska and Wyoming. If she actually does support more than background checks on guns, then she's done.

[eric82oslo]

Amanda Curtis sounds and behaves a bit like a teenager I think. (Not that that necessarily is a bad thing, but it doesn't exactly scream Senate election advantage to me.) With 34 years she is barely legal to even be elected to the Senate in the first place lol.
Montana has a tradition of fostering excentric politicians. I'm not sure if she's more excentric than Brian Schweitzer for instance, though she'd probably come close.
If elected, she would become the first nose-ringed Senator in US history, not exactly a small achievement.
Also she seems to be very, very, very liberal, which is a good thing.
She seems to hate the Republican party's anti-human policies with an intense passion and to a degree I can only remember seeing in Elizabeth Warren lately.

[KCDem]

Amanda Curtis sounds and behaves a bit like a teenager I think. (Not that that necessarily is a bad thing, but it doesn't exactly scream Senate election advantage to me.) With 34 years she is barely legal to even be elected to the Senate in the first place lol.
Montana has a tradition of fostering excentric politicians. I'm not sure if she's more excentric than Brian Schweitzer for instance, though she'd probably come close.
If elected, she would become the first nose-ringed Senator in US history, not exactly a small achievement.
Also she seems to be very, very, very liberal, which is a good thing.
She seems to hate the Republican party's anti-human policies with an intense passion and to a degree I can only remember seeing in Elizabeth Warren lately.

please use more emojis

[Tender Branson]

Impossible to say at this point.

[smoltchanov]

Daines by 19-20. Something about 58-39