NM: Research & Polling Inc: Gov. Martinez (R) up 9
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  NM: Research & Polling Inc: Gov. Martinez (R) up 9
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Author Topic: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Gov. Martinez (R) up 9  (Read 1453 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: August 17, 2014, 07:28:45 AM »

New Poll: New Mexico Governor by Research & Polling Inc on 2014-08-14

Summary: D: 41%, R: 50%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2014, 07:36:25 AM »

Yepp.

54-45 is something I could see Martinez winning with.
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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2014, 07:38:57 AM »

No senate poll?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2014, 07:40:08 AM »


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Wink
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2014, 07:49:09 AM »

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Worthless.
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KCDem
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« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2014, 09:55:32 AM »

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Worthless.

So the poll screen is even more restrictive than those who voted in 2010, HA! Joke poll.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2014, 10:14:56 AM »

FWIW, how she performed in 2010 with their regional breakdowns:

1: 53/47
2: 57/43
3: 38/62
4: 71/29
5: 53/47
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2014, 01:12:31 PM »

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Worthless.

So the poll screen is even more restrictive than those who voted in 2010, HA! Joke poll.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2014, 01:57:39 PM »

Yeah, clearly this poll is screwed, but I also think the one showing a tie was off too. Realistically right now Martinez is leading by 4-6-- still a popular incumbent Governor but has made a few missteps-- but I think she'll end up winning by more than that, not on her own merits but because Gary King right now is basically Generic D and will end up being worse than that.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2014, 06:54:09 PM »

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Worthless.

So the poll screen is even more restrictive than those who voted in 2010, HA! Joke poll.

It seems it's becoming a trend for pollsters to use their LV screen as "did you vote in 2010?". Of course, nobody expects a 2008/2012 like electorate to turn out, but it's certainly not going to be a 2010 electorate either.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2014, 12:11:59 AM »

In Austria, pollsters ask people if they are "certain, likely, unlikely or very unlikely to vote" in the next election.

Turnout finally almost always matches the "certain to vote" figure, while the ones who say they are "likely, unlikely or very unlikely" are staying at home.

For example, in the 2013 federal election 70-78% said they are "certain" to vote, final turnout then was 75%.

Don't know if this is the case in the US as well, but pollsters should ask all registered voters if they are "certain" to vote in the mid-terms and only use these people for likely voter samples.
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King
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2014, 01:12:21 PM »

It feels like she's up 20 on the ground.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2014, 12:01:34 AM »

Yepp.

54-45 is something I could see Martinez winning with.

Yep, maybe similar to her 2010 result 53-47.
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