Clinton Vs. Paul

[Mister Mets]

I would personally vote for Rand Paul.

I don't know who would win.

Hillary's the more polished candidate, and Paul would be vulnerable to any gaffes. It's easier to define him than someone who has been a national figure since 1992.

However, the 2008 primaries demonstrated Hillary's vulnerability to a disciplined newcomer who can appeal to people who don't regularly vote. And Romney did well with the youngest voters in 2012.

[Mister Mets]

Probably this:

Hillary Clinton 323
Rand Paul 215

Paul ceiling:

Hillary Clinton 270
Rand Paul 268

Hillary ceiling:

Hillary Clinton 358
Rand Paul 180

I think Paul would have a fairly high ceiling. There are people who would vote for him, but not for a Jeb Bush, or (at this point) a Chris Christie.

One problem is that he's not a completely known quantity, nor has he been a national figure long. He could screw up badly in a national campaign and get clobbered.

But he could also run a better campaign in an environment that's better for Republicans.