Gallup on States' Scorecards 2014

[eric82oslo]

In time for the 2014 midterm elections, Gallup has asked a sample of 600 in each 50 states 14 questions on 14 different issues, ranging from ideology and partisanship via the economy and Obama approval to religiosity. Here I'll rank each state on some of these issues, namely on the following:

1) Partisanship
2) Ideology (conservative minus liberal)
3) Obama approval
4) Religiosity (% very religious)
5) Would like to remain in state (% who does not want to move to another state)


Partisanship (going from most Democratic to least)

1. Massachusetts: +24% (D advantage)
2. Maryland: +22%
3. Delaware: +18%
3. Rhode Island: +18%
5. Vermont: +17%
5. New York: +17%
7. California: +16%
7. Illinois: +16%
9. Hawaii: +15%
10. New Jersey: +12%
10. Connecticut: +12%
12. Minnesota: +8%
12. Michigan: +8%
14. Washington: +7%
14. Pennsylvania: +7%
14. New Mexico: +7%
14. West Virginia: +7%
18. Oregon: +5%
National average: +4%
19. Florida: +4%
19. Louisiana: +4%
21. Maine: +3%
21. Nevada: +3%
21. New Hampshire: +3%
24. Wisconsin: +2%
24. Arkansas: +2%
26. Virginia: +1%
26. Iowa: +1%
26. North Carolina: +1%
29. Colorado: 0%
30. Ohio: -1%
31. Georgia: -2%
32. Missouri: -3%
33. Arizona: -4%
33. South Carolina: -4%
35. Texas: -5%
36. Kentucky: -6%
36. North Dakota: -6%
38. Indiana: -7%
38. Oklahoma: -7%
40. Alaska: -8%
41. Nebraska: -10%
41. Mississippi: -10%
43. Tennessee: -11%
44. Kansas: -13%
45. Alabama: -14%
46. Montana: -17%
47. South Dakota: -20%
48. Idaho: -30%
49. Utah: -36%
50. Wyoming: -37% (R advantage)


Ideology (going from least to most conservative)

1. Massachusetts: -8%
2. Hawaii: -4%
3. Vermont: -1%
4. Maryland: +2%
4. New York: +2%
4. California: +2%
7. New Jersey: +3%
7. Washington: +3%
9. Connecticut: +4%
10. Delaware: +5%
11. Illinois: +6%
11. Oregon: +6%
13. Rhode Island: +7%
14. Minnesota: +8%
14. Maine: +8%
14. Nevada: +8%
14. Colorado: +8%
18. New Hampshire: +11%
19. Pennsylvania: 12%
20. New Mexico: +13%
National average: +13%
21. Michigan: +14%
21. Florida: +14%
21. Virginia: +14%
21. Iowa: +14%
25. Ohio: +15%
25. Arizona: +15%
27. Wisconsin: +16%
28. North Carolina: +18%
28. Alaska: +18%
28. Kansas: +18%
31. Georgia: +19%
32. Montana: +20%
33. West Virginia: +21%
33. Missouri: +21%
35. Texas: +22%
35. Kentucky: +22%
35. Indiana: +22%
35. Nebraska: +22%
39. Arkansas: +24%
39. South Carolina: +24%
39. North Dakota: +24%
42. Oklahoma: +25%
42. Tennessee: +25%
42. South Dakota: +25%
45. Louisiana: +28%
46. Wyoming: +29%
47. Alabama: +30%
47. Idaho: +30%
49. Utah: +31%
50. Mississippi: +36%


Obama approval

1. Massachusetts: 54%
2. Maryland: 52%
2. Hawaii: 52%
4. New York: 51%
4. California: 51%
6. New Jersey: 50%
7. Rhode Island: 49%
7. Illinois: 49%
9. Delaware: 48%
9. Connecticut: 48%
11. Minnesota: 46%
12. Washington: 45%
12. Maine: 45%
12. Michigan: 45%
15. Vermont: 44%
15. Oregon: 44%
National average: 43%
17. New Hampshire: 43%
17. Florida: 43%
17. Virginia: 43%
17. Wisconsin: 43%
21. Pennsylvania: 42%
21. Georgia: 42%
23. Nevada: 41%
23. Colorado: 41%
23. North Carolina: 41%
26. Arizona: 40%
26. Louisiana: 40%
26. Mississippi: 40%
29. Ohio: 39%
29. South Carolina: 39%
31. New Mexico: 38%
31. Iowa: 38%
31. Texas: 38%
34. Nebraska: 35%
35. Missouri: 34%
35. Alaska: 34%
35. Indiana: 34%
35. Tennessee: 34%
39. Arkansas: 33%
39. Alabama: 33%
41. Kansas: 32%
41. South Dakota: 32%
43. North Dakota: 31%
43. Oklahoma: 31%
45. Kentucky: 29%
45. Montana: 29%
47. Utah: 28%
48. Idaho: 25%
49. West Virginia: 24%
50. Wyoming: 19%


Religiosity (from least to most very religious)

1. Vermont: 19%
2. Maine: 22%
3. New Hampshire: 25%
4. Massachusetts: 27%
5. Oregon: 29%
6. Washington: 30%
6. Connecticut: 30%
8. Nevada: 31%
9. New York: 33%
9. Colorado: 33%
11. Hawaii: 34%
11. California: 34%
11. Rhode Island: 34%
14. Alaska: 35%
14. Montana: 35%
14. Wyoming: 35%
17. New Jersey: 36%
18. Arizona: 37%
19. Florida: 38%
20. Maryland: 39%
20. Illinois: 39%
20. Michigan: 39%
20. Pennsylvania: 39%
20. Ohio: 39%
20. West Virginia: 39%
20. Kansas: 39%
27. Delaware: 40%
27. Minnesota: 40%
27. New Mexico: 40%
27. Iowa: 40%
27. Wisconsin: 40%
27. North Dakota: 40%
27. South Dakota: 40%
National average: 41%
34. Idaho: 42%
35. Virginia: 43%
35. Missouri: 43%
37. Indiana: 44%
38. Nebraska: 46%
39. Texas: 47%
40. Oklahoma: 48%
41. Georgia: 49%
41. Kentucky: 49%
41. Tennessee: 49%
44. North Carolina: 51%
44. South Carolina: 51%
46. Louisiana: 53%
47. Arkansas: 54%
48. Alabama: 58%
48. Utah: 58%
50. Mississippi: 60%


Would like to stay in state (from least to most)

50. Connecticut: 48%
49. Illinois: 49%
48. Maryland: 51%
47. Nevada: 55%
45. New York: 56%
45. Rhode Island: 56%
43. New Jersey: 58%
43. Massachusetts: 58%
41. Mississippi: 59%
41. Arizona: 59%
40. Louisiana: 60%
38. Indiana: 61%
38. Georgia: 61%
35. Pennsylvania: 62%
35. Delaware: 62%
35. Virginia: 62%
31. Michigan: 63%
31. Kansas: 63%
31. New Mexico: 63%
31. North Carolina: 63%
29. Ohio: 64%
29. California: 64%
National average: 65%
26. Missouri: 65%
26. Alaska: 65%
26. South Carolina: 65%
25. Washington: 66%
21. Kentucky: 67%
21. Arkansas: 67%
21. Tennessee: 67%
21. Florida: 67%
20. Nebraska: 68%
13. Vermont: 69%
13. Wisconsin: 69%
13. Oklahoma: 69%
13. Alabama: 69%
13. Idaho: 69%
13. Utah: 69%
13. North Dakota: 69%
12. Iowa: 70%
11. South Dakota: 71%
9. West Virginia: 72%
9. Wyoming: 72%
7. Minnesota: 73%
7. Colorado: 73%
6. Texas: 74%
3. New Hampshire: 75%
3. Montana: 75%
3. Hawaii: 75%
1. Maine: 76%
1. Oregon: 76%

Apparently, Oregon and Maine are the most attractive states in the US to live in. One very rapid-growing state and one with a stagnant population.

And Massachusetts clearly is still the most Democratic/liberal/progressive/academic/scientific state in the nation. It's harder to pick out the most Republican/conservative/dogmatic/religious one. Utah is perhaps a better candidate than Wyoming, due to Wyoming hardly being very religious at all.


Link to the Gallup pages: http://www.gallup.com/poll/174620/california-scorecard.aspx

[GaussLaw]

West Virginia more Democratic than Oregon?  I know there is a historic D registration advantage, but it's surprising Obama hasn't obliterated it.... I wonder what % of the WV Democrats voted against Obama.  Must be fairly high.

[eric82oslo]

West Virginia more Democratic than Oregon?  I know there is a historic D registration advantage, but it's surprising Obama hasn't obliterated it.... I wonder what % of the WV Democrats voted against Obama.  Must be fairly high.

Apparently only Wyomingites have more distaste for Obama than Western Virginians.

[Rockefeller GOP]

How does Utah become more Republican and conservative than Wyoming just because it's more, in your words, "dogmatic and religious"?  That's a pretty ridiculous, black and white view of things.  If this polls shows anything about the connection, it's that there are still several socially conservative and religious Democrats in places like WV and AR.  And they're not "DINOs."  They still identify as Democrats, just not Obama's more socially liberal types.

[eric82oslo]

How does Utah become more Republican and conservative than Wyoming just because it's more, in your words, "dogmatic and religious"?  That's a pretty ridiculous, black and white view of things.  If this polls shows anything about the connection, it's that there are still several socially conservative and religious Democrats in places like WV and AR.  And they're not "DINOs."  They still identify as Democrats, just not Obama's more socially liberal types.

Arkansas could vote for Hillary as president. Can't really see which Democrat a majority in West Virginia would be willing to vote for, other than their own favourite sons, like Joe Manchin. Democrats will never become a pro coal party again, so the only way up for Democrats in the state would be if they were to start investing in another boom industry like the Research Triangle in NC, Silicon Valley and so on. But how likely is that? Not very I guess. So West Virginia is probably gone on the presidential level for the next generation.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Need to work on our religiosity (over 1/3 is still terrifying) and New Jerseyans have to stop buying into the stereotype/baseless jokes and realize that NJ is a perfectly fine place to live.   Other than that, we've come a long way since the 80s. 

 

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Need to work on our religiosity (over 1/3 is still terrifying) and New Jerseyans have to stop buying into the stereotype/baseless jokes and realize that NJ is a perfectly fine place to live.   Other than that, we've come a long way since the 80s. 

 

Preach it

[ElectionsGuy]

West Virginia more Democratic than Oregon?  I know there is a historic D registration advantage, but it's surprising Obama hasn't obliterated it.... I wonder what % of the WV Democrats voted against Obama.  Must be fairly high.

According to 2008 exit polls, 28% of democrats voted for McCain. Same number for Arkansas. There was no exit poll done in 2012, but it had to be much higher than that, probably beyond 35%. Not to mention independents now lean heavily republican.

Also, just a side note on Louisiana. White democrats voted 60-38 McCain. Yes, those are "democrats". And white democrats in Oklahoma only went 59-41 Obama. So you can see that there are many democrats registered in some of these states by tradition and not by voting/ideology.

[Person Man]

2016... (not to be taken seriously)

Based on Obama Approval

by Party Affiliation..

by Ideology...

Average them out and you get - (Republicans in a better situation with Ohio, even if Nevada pulls away)

[eric82oslo]

Great maps MooMooMoo.

Now one can see why Republicans were salivating about holding their convention in Ohio. However I'm sure Democrats won't mind substituing Ohio for North Carolina necessarily.

[Person Man]

Great maps MooMooMoo.

Now one can see why Republicans were salivating about holding their convention in Ohio. However I'm sure Democrats won't mind substituing Ohio for North Carolina necessarily.

Solidifying Mississippi and Ohio rivers forces Democrats to look out west and down the I-95 corridor for more votes.

[henster]

I would be more concerned about OH if Republicans had a 5-10 point party ID advantage but a  1 point lead in a midterm year is not the end of the world its not far off from IA, CO, and VA.