Will VA (R) and North Carolina (D) ever again split in the opposite direction?

[JRP1994]

The Virginia/North Carolina split. It happened in 1976. It happened again in 2012. In 2012, VA went Democrat and NC went Republican. Will it ever happen again that VA goes Republican while NC goes Democrat? If so, what sort of circumstances would it take?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Who knows, and who cares?

[TJ in Oregon]

Ever? Sure, but it won't happen for the foreseeable future with the current partisan alignment. Perhaps come 2044 when the hot button issue will be forced cloning or Iraq War Part 14 or something else impossible to consider in today's terms, it'll happen. It won't happen soon, but ever is a long time.

[Mister Mets]

It's possible. Both are states parties will compete for reasonably close elections, which means it can swing either way.

I'd expect Democrats are more likely to win VA when Republicans win NC as the party has a stronger bench of plausible presidential contenders in VA.

[MATTROSE94]

Maybe if Hillary Clinton decides not to run in 2016 and Joe Biden or Martin O'Malley get the Democratic nomination instead.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Sure, in 2016.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Probably.

[IceSpear]

Maybe if Hillary Clinton decides not to run in 2016 and Joe Biden or Martin O'Malley get the Democratic nomination instead.

? Why would North Carolina be more Democratic than Virginia if Biden/O'Malley are the nominee?

The only way I could see this happening in current political circumstances is if a North Carolinian is on the Dem ticket and/or a Virginian on the Rep ticket, but even then it's a stretch.

[DS0816]

2012 was the first time it was North Carolina officially Republican and Virginia officially Democratic.

They're about five points in spread. (Some elections even less.)

If the U.S. Popular Vote is similar in margin to the outcome of 2012, they'll carry differently; othewise, the two states will carry the same.

[Miles]

When Bev Perdue runs I could see that scenario. Maybe she'd lose VA to a generic R.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

A stray North Korean or Terrorist nuke hits DC and NOVA, devastating both areas and destroying the democratic base in VA. Then in 2016, VA votes for the Republican while NC votes Democratic.

Or some randian tea party nut wins and with a Republican congress slashes government spending to the bone. Then the fast growth of the NOVA suburbs would slow down, while NC led by the research triangle keeps trending Democratic. Thus in 10 years it could happen.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Just FTR, are we all completely resigned to the idea that NOVA is forever Democratic?  It was once the only Republican friendly part of the state, and it's not like it's necessarily been THAT much more liberal than VA for a long time (ala Chicago in IL) and is finally turning the state because it's big enough (like Chicago did to IL).  Pretty much pre-2004, it was SAFE GOP territory.  I think Obama was a good fit for the area.  I'm not saying it'll come back in the near future or anything, but the idea that it will eventually trend VA to become the next IL or NY is a bit out there, IMO.

[Skill and Chance]

Just FTR, are we all completely resigned to the idea that NOVA is forever Democratic?  It was once the only Republican friendly part of the state, and it's not like it's necessarily been THAT much more liberal than VA for a long time (ala Chicago in IL) and is finally turning the state because it's big enough (like Chicago did to IL).  Pretty much pre-2004, it was SAFE GOP territory.  I think Obama was a good fit for the area.  I'm not saying it'll come back in the near future or anything, but the idea that it will eventually trend VA to become the next IL or NY is a bit out there, IMO.

Look at what has happened in MD since 2004.  It has now gone from about D+7 to about D+11.  And most of that change has come from the immediate DC suburbs blueing.  I don't think anyone believes VA will be D+11 in the 2020's, but there's a clear precedent for it to keep moving left, perhaps to an Upper Midwest level of partisanship.  I also expect that any future federal GOP effort to balance the budget will only accelerate the trend and could easily drive the DC suburbs from 60%D to 70+%D.

So I would say that NOVA is not coming back to the GOP.  The rest of the state could if they can figure out how to get >20% of the black vote, though.   

[MATTROSE94]

Maybe if Hillary Clinton decides not to run in 2016 and Joe Biden or Martin O'Malley get the Democratic nomination instead.

? Why would North Carolina be more Democratic than Virginia if Biden/O'Malley are the nominee?

The only way I could see this happening in current political circumstances is if a North Carolinian is on the Dem ticket and/or a Virginian on the Rep ticket, but even then it's a stretch.

I meant for Virginia to go Democratic and North Carolina to go Republican. That's what you get for not reading the title of the thread.

[Badger]

Quite possibly. The trend in VA is quite Democratic with the burgeoning NOVA and Hispanic vote, and the SW part of the state abandoning Democrats much as they lose share of state population. NC meanwhile doesn't have nearly the same strong demographic trend. Democrats have expected it to emerge there any election now for three decades, but the northern transplants haven't been nearly as Democratic as say FL as expected, and Dixiecrat drain just continued and continued....

I wouldn't be surprised to see their PVI grow farther apart, and readily split in close elections for a while.

[illegaloperation]

Well, I won't say never, but it is very unlikely I the near future.

The Research Triangle and Charlotte will continue to cause NC to keeping moving to the left, but I really doubt that it will be able to overtake Washington suburb in VA as a more influential part of the state.

[Never]

It could happen, but it would depend more on events affecting Virginia than North Carolina. There is a scenario other than an attack on the nation's capital and Northern Virginia that could throw a wrench in Democratic chances in the Old Dominion: What if the United States went bankrupt and the federal government cut a significant number of jobs? Now, I'm not saying this will happen soon (surely not by 2016), but this kind of event could definitely occur in the long term and cause significant population loss in NoVA, the most Democratic area of the state. North Carolina would probably be adversely affected, but since it doesn't rely on the government to the extent Virginia does for providing jobs, it wouldn't see as much of a change from its current trajectory. In this case, North Carolina might be able to stay Democratic and Virginia could start voting Republican again. Of course, that would also depend on who the blame was laid on regarding the nation's bankruptcy, but I would forsee it as being equally placed on both major parties.

Another way that Virginia could go Republican and North Carolina could vote Democratic in the same presidential election is if Republicans had someone on the ticket from Virginia while Democrats had a candidate from North Carolina. Still, that would necessitate  Republicans winning Governor's Mansion or one of the Senate seats in Virginia first, and barring any crazy circumstances, that can't happen before 2016.

Other than those cases, Virginia should consistently be to the left of North Carolina for quite some time.

[Skill and Chance]

It could happen, but it would depend more on events affecting Virginia than North Carolina. There is a scenario other than an attack on the nation's capital and Northern Virginia that could throw a wrench in Democratic chances in the Old Dominion: What if the United States went bankrupt and the federal government cut a significant number of jobs? Now, I'm not saying this will happen soon (surely not by 2016), but this kind of event could definitely occur in the long term and cause significant population loss in NoVA, the most Democratic area of the state. North Carolina would probably be adversely affected, but since it doesn't rely on the government to the extent Virginia does for providing jobs, it wouldn't see as much of a change from its current trajectory. In this case, North Carolina might be able to stay Democratic and Virginia could start voting Republican again. Of course, that would also depend on who the blame was laid on regarding the nation's bankruptcy, but I would forsee it as being equally placed on both major parties.

Another way that Virginia could go Republican and North Carolina could vote Democratic in the same presidential election is if Republicans had someone on the ticket from Virginia while Democrats had a candidate from North Carolina. Still, that would necessitate  Republicans winning Governor's Mansion or one of the Senate seats in Virginia first, and barring any crazy circumstances, that can't happen before 2016.

Other than those cases, Virginia should consistently be to the left of North Carolina for quite some time.

I'm not convinced about your first scenario.  I think that only works if the Democrats would have to be in full control federally at the time of the collapse.  Because if they weren't, they would just campaign on restoring as many of those lost jobs as possible.  It's difficult to imagine the Republicans outbidding Democrats in an effort to grow/stabilize federal jobs.  Some would leave for sure, but those who stay would be more unanimously Dem than they are now.  The DC area in a default/bankruptcy would be like Detroit in 2008 or Oklahoma in 1932.

[ag]

They are close enough that a very popular Republican governor of Virginia running in an otherwise democratic year could do this. Especially, if he had done something to piss NC off

[illegaloperation]

It could happen, but it would depend more on events affecting Virginia than North Carolina. There is a scenario other than an attack on the nation's capital and Northern Virginia that could throw a wrench in Democratic chances in the Old Dominion: What if the United States went bankrupt and the federal government cut a significant number of jobs? Now, I'm not saying this will happen soon (surely not by 2016), but this kind of event could definitely occur in the long term and cause significant population loss in NoVA, the most Democratic area of the state. North Carolina would probably be adversely affected, but since it doesn't rely on the government to the extent Virginia does for providing jobs, it wouldn't see as much of a change from its current trajectory. In this case, North Carolina might be able to stay Democratic and Virginia could start voting Republican again. Of course, that would also depend on who the blame was laid on regarding the nation's bankruptcy, but I would forsee it as being equally placed on both major parties.

Another way that Virginia could go Republican and North Carolina could vote Democratic in the same presidential election is if Republicans had someone on the ticket from Virginia while Democrats had a candidate from North Carolina. Still, that would necessitate  Republicans winning Governor's Mansion or one of the Senate seats in Virginia first, and barring any crazy circumstances, that can't happen before 2016.

Other than those cases, Virginia should consistently be to the left of North Carolina for quite some time.

John Edwards vs Bob McDonnell 😃

[MATTROSE94]

It could happen, but it would depend more on events affecting Virginia than North Carolina. There is a scenario other than an attack on the nation's capital and Northern Virginia that could throw a wrench in Democratic chances in the Old Dominion: What if the United States went bankrupt and the federal government cut a significant number of jobs? Now, I'm not saying this will happen soon (surely not by 2016), but this kind of event could definitely occur in the long term and cause significant population loss in NoVA, the most Democratic area of the state. North Carolina would probably be adversely affected, but since it doesn't rely on the government to the extent Virginia does for providing jobs, it wouldn't see as much of a change from its current trajectory. In this case, North Carolina might be able to stay Democratic and Virginia could start voting Republican again. Of course, that would also depend on who the blame was laid on regarding the nation's bankruptcy, but I would forsee it as being equally placed on both major parties.

Another way that Virginia could go Republican and North Carolina could vote Democratic in the same presidential election is if Republicans had someone on the ticket from Virginia while Democrats had a candidate from North Carolina. Still, that would necessitate  Republicans winning Governor's Mansion or one of the Senate seats in Virginia first, and barring any crazy circumstances, that can't happen before 2016.

Other than those cases, Virginia should consistently be to the left of North Carolina for quite some time.

John Edwards vs Bob McDonnell 😃

Another possibility would be Roy Cooper (assuming that he defeats Pat McCrory in the 2016 North Carolina Gubernatorial Election) vs Barbara Comstock (assuming that she is elected to the House of Representatives this year and to the Virginia Governorship in 2017).

[Never]

It could happen, but it would depend more on events affecting Virginia than North Carolina. There is a scenario other than an attack on the nation's capital and Northern Virginia that could throw a wrench in Democratic chances in the Old Dominion: What if the United States went bankrupt and the federal government cut a significant number of jobs? Now, I'm not saying this will happen soon (surely not by 2016), but this kind of event could definitely occur in the long term and cause significant population loss in NoVA, the most Democratic area of the state. North Carolina would probably be adversely affected, but since it doesn't rely on the government to the extent Virginia does for providing jobs, it wouldn't see as much of a change from its current trajectory. In this case, North Carolina might be able to stay Democratic and Virginia could start voting Republican again. Of course, that would also depend on who the blame was laid on regarding the nation's bankruptcy, but I would forsee it as being equally placed on both major parties.

Another way that Virginia could go Republican and North Carolina could vote Democratic in the same presidential election is if Republicans had someone on the ticket from Virginia while Democrats had a candidate from North Carolina. Still, that would necessitate  Republicans winning Governor's Mansion or one of the Senate seats in Virginia first, and barring any crazy circumstances, that can't happen before 2016.

Other than those cases, Virginia should consistently be to the left of North Carolina for quite some time.

John Edwards vs Bob McDonnell 😃

Another possibility would be Roy Cooper (assuming that he defeats Pat McCrory in the 2016 North Carolina Gubernatorial Election) vs Barbara Comstock (assuming that she is elected to the House of Representatives this year and to the Virginia Governorship in 2017).

I could definitely see Cooper and Comstock on their party's respective tickets in 2020.

[MATTROSE94]

It could happen, but it would depend more on events affecting Virginia than North Carolina. There is a scenario other than an attack on the nation's capital and Northern Virginia that could throw a wrench in Democratic chances in the Old Dominion: What if the United States went bankrupt and the federal government cut a significant number of jobs? Now, I'm not saying this will happen soon (surely not by 2016), but this kind of event could definitely occur in the long term and cause significant population loss in NoVA, the most Democratic area of the state. North Carolina would probably be adversely affected, but since it doesn't rely on the government to the extent Virginia does for providing jobs, it wouldn't see as much of a change from its current trajectory. In this case, North Carolina might be able to stay Democratic and Virginia could start voting Republican again. Of course, that would also depend on who the blame was laid on regarding the nation's bankruptcy, but I would forsee it as being equally placed on both major parties.

Another way that Virginia could go Republican and North Carolina could vote Democratic in the same presidential election is if Republicans had someone on the ticket from Virginia while Democrats had a candidate from North Carolina. Still, that would necessitate  Republicans winning Governor's Mansion or one of the Senate seats in Virginia first, and barring any crazy circumstances, that can't happen before 2016.

Other than those cases, Virginia should consistently be to the left of North Carolina for quite some time.

John Edwards vs Bob McDonnell 😃

Another possibility would be Roy Cooper (assuming that he defeats Pat McCrory in the 2016 North Carolina Gubernatorial Election) vs Barbara Comstock (assuming that she is elected to the House of Representatives this year and to the Virginia Governorship in 2017).

I could definitely see Cooper and Comstock on their party's respective tickets in 2020.

Who do you see winning/who would you support if Roy Cooper was the Democratic nominee and if Barbara Comstock was the Republican nominee?

[Never]

It could happen, but it would depend more on events affecting Virginia than North Carolina. There is a scenario other than an attack on the nation's capital and Northern Virginia that could throw a wrench in Democratic chances in the Old Dominion: What if the United States went bankrupt and the federal government cut a significant number of jobs? Now, I'm not saying this will happen soon (surely not by 2016), but this kind of event could definitely occur in the long term and cause significant population loss in NoVA, the most Democratic area of the state. North Carolina would probably be adversely affected, but since it doesn't rely on the government to the extent Virginia does for providing jobs, it wouldn't see as much of a change from its current trajectory. In this case, North Carolina might be able to stay Democratic and Virginia could start voting Republican again. Of course, that would also depend on who the blame was laid on regarding the nation's bankruptcy, but I would forsee it as being equally placed on both major parties.

Another way that Virginia could go Republican and North Carolina could vote Democratic in the same presidential election is if Republicans had someone on the ticket from Virginia while Democrats had a candidate from North Carolina. Still, that would necessitate  Republicans winning Governor's Mansion or one of the Senate seats in Virginia first, and barring any crazy circumstances, that can't happen before 2016.

Other than those cases, Virginia should consistently be to the left of North Carolina for quite some time.

John Edwards vs Bob McDonnell 😃

Another possibility would be Roy Cooper (assuming that he defeats Pat McCrory in the 2016 North Carolina Gubernatorial Election) vs Barbara Comstock (assuming that she is elected to the House of Representatives this year and to the Virginia Governorship in 2017).

I could definitely see Cooper and Comstock on their party's respective tickets in 2020.

Who do you see winning/who would you support if Roy Cooper was the Democratic nominee and if Barbara Comstock was the Republican nominee?

I would definitely support Comstock; she's one of my favorite candidates for Congress this year, though Cooper is pretty good. I just prefer Comstock. 

By 2020, I'm not sure how a candidate like Cooper would reasonate with the Democratic party. For one, he opposes gay marriage. That might dampen support from the left.