Is R/D divide becoming more about metro areas than regions?

[Non Swing Voter]

e.g., states with large metro areas and surrounding states for the most part will continue voting (D) while states without large metro areas for the most part will not.

Large metro area examples = New York, LA, SF, Chicago, DC, Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Seattle, Detroit, Denver, Boston... etc.

Obviously some states with large metro areas such as Texas will probably continue to vote (R), while some states like New Mexico will probably continue to vote (D)... however, this seems to correlate better than regions.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nah, I think areas like Phoenix, San Diego, and every metro in the South prove this not to be the case. Southern metros are fundamentally different from Midwest and Northeast metros.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, we're not there yet, but we probably will get there in the next 10 years.  The R hold on FL/NC/GA/AZ will eventually slip away, as will the D hold on the more rural midwestern states and (eventually, I think) Northern New England.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, we're not there yet, but we probably will get there in the next 10 years.  The R hold on FL/NC/GA/AZ will eventually slip away, as will the D hold on the more rural midwestern states and (eventually, I think) Northern New England.

This will obviously be a net win for Democrats as they will gain more electoral votes from this equation than Republicans will. 

Would also be helpful in the House if they could eventually take full control of redistricting in a lot of large states.  But it would make a Senate majority almost impossible.  Although I would probably rather have control of the House than the Senate between the two.

[Mr. Illini]

The divide has always existed, but the fact is that certain metros are more conservative than others, and this can play a major factor. For example, Wisconsin would not be considered to be a swing state were its suburbs to vote more like the suburbs of Boston or even Chicago. Large metros exist in Tennessee and Arizona and Texas, but these states will remain Republican not because they necessarily a smaller portion of the population (sometimes it is so, other times not) but because they aren't overwhelmingly Democratic enough to flip the state.