Republic of Texas – what if?

[CherryPanda]

Watching the situation in Ukraine – I mean, the Crimea seceding and Donetsk fighting to secede – I started thinking what if some states decided to become independed? If we look back at the history of US, we can easily recall the times when some of the states were just as separate as foreign countries, for example, Texas. And now Texas has even more possibilities to succede being independent: great territory, natural resources, and so on.
In my opinion, there are a couple of other candidates for independence: California with its technology development, and Alaska being quite far away from the ‘mainland’ and having its own economic infrasctructure.
What if they all decided to separate? Do you think it’s possible?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

lol

[King]

The semantics of a secession in 2014 would bankrupt any state within a few months.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I'd be fine with letting them go. We could handle the refugees.

[pbrower2a]

Texas would be quickly become a political cesspool, the right-wing equivalent of Belarus in the Americas. 

[pbrower2a]

I'd be fine with letting them go. We could handle the refugees.

But could Mexico?

[dead0man]

Now I'm not saying Texas would be better off being independent, but it would do fine.  Better than any Central American country, most South American countries and certainly light years better than Belarus.  You'd have to be pretty blinded by your biases to make such a claim me thinks.

[King]

I don't really think secession is practical for even large states like Texas or California. Third world economies are one thing but Texas in a secession would lose billions in defense related money from DC and defense contractors, would have to establish its own currency, military, set up border control with the USA, trade agreements, get recognized internationally, etc., etc. Business community would probably panic. People who didn't want to succeed would flee.

A state secession would be chaotic even under fairly peaceful circumstances.

[Sbane]

Now I'm not saying Texas would be better off being independent, but it would do fine.  Better than any Central American country, most South American countries and certainly light years better than Belarus.  You'd have to be pretty blinded by your biases to make such a claim me thinks.

The instability would ruin anything that is good about Texas. If the business community flees, what else is left?

[Brittain33]

Like Scotland and the EU or like Quebec, Texas would have to negotiate membership in NAFTA simply to maintain current ties with Mexico and Canada, and would suddenly be at a great competitive disadvantage relative to other states in trade with the U.S.A. While that gets worked out, this would cause an immediate recession as customs and immigration checkpoints are placed on the many connections between Texas and the U.S.A., and as companies doing business in the U.S.A. vacate Dallas and Houston for more stable homes.

Would Texas adopt the U.S. Dollar? If not, look for a massive economic crash and dislocation until Texas Dollars are established as a sort-of-sound currency. If they hang onto the U.S. Dollar, they'll have surrendered any influence in how the Federal Reserve sets rate.

Texas would need to beef up its government to handle immigration, foreign relations, national defense, and other issues the federal government now handles. Higher taxes. Lower spending than the already low spending on services and infrastructure.

I agree, Texas would still be doing better than Venezuela or Honduras, but it would be knocked several steps down the GDP per capital ladder simply by leaving the U.S.

[Brittain33]

Now I'm not saying Texas would be better off being independent, but it would do fine.  Better than any Central American country, most South American countries and certainly light years better than Belarus.  You'd have to be pretty blinded by your biases to make such a claim me thinks.

The instability would ruin anything that is good about Texas. If the business community flees, what else is left?

Yep, hard to imagine now but Montreal used to be the economic capital of Canada. Not any more.

[Deus Naturae]

Wouldn't an independent Texas start off with no tariffs? Given that, would it really be so bad if they were (temporarily or permanently) outside of US-negotiated trade agreements?

Also, what influence does Texas, or any State government for that matter, have on Federal Reserve policy? There's the Dallas Fed but just because it's in the State doesn't really give Texas any influence on what they do.

[pbrower2a]

Right-wing as the state's politics it would endure a brain drain as the leading politicians gut civil liberties.

[dead0man]

Now I'm not saying Texas would be better off being independent, but it would do fine.  Better than any Central American country, most South American countries and certainly light years better than Belarus.  You'd have to be pretty blinded by your biases to make such a claim me thinks.

The instability would ruin anything that is good about Texas. If the business community flees, what else is left?

Who owns the oil fields? (I honestly don't know, that's not a loaded question)

I don't see why an independent Texas would be doomed to a business fleeing economic basketcase.  It's full of smart people that love the state.  Way too much in my opinion, but none the less, people from Texas let you know they are from Texas.

The current GDP of Texas puts it 14th on the list of nations, ironically, (and this is fun) right between Spain and Mexico.  Sure it might not hold that spot with a split, but even if it drops ten fold (to 58th), it would still be twice the GDP of of any Central American country or Belarus.  handy cite.

Texas is full of Hank Hills, sure he's a stereotype, but it's a fairly accurate one as stereotypes go.

I think any of the mentioned states would do just fine on their own.  Probably not as good as they got it now, but fine.  I don't think any "inland" states could, you really need your own port.  Or at least they'd be starting behind a really big 8-ball.

[Brittain33]

Wouldn't an independent Texas start off with no tariffs? Given that, would it really be so bad if they were (temporarily or permanently) outside of US-negotiated trade agreements?

Even if Texas started out with no tariffs, the U.S. would by default impose tariffs on goods and services coming in from Texas. Not unless they negotiated prior to secession, but as we see with Scotland those negotiations get very difficult, very quickly, and most likely Texas would need to do a UDI a la Rhodesia to get independence.

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Absolutely location matters. That branch represents the needs and business climate of that part of the country and because it's a populous area, it likely punches above its weight. Moving forward, the Federal Reserve wouldn't have to consider if TX were overheating or lagging when making policy decisions.

[King]

Texas would eventually do fine, but the major recession that comes with such a radical change would probably lead to civil unrest.

The prospect of having to negotiate with Louisiana over shipping waters and oil refinery work, and have to regulate airspace separate from the FAA, shutting down NASA, the closing of Ft. Hood.

There is too much inter-dependency.

[Хahar 🤔]

Texas is also unusual in terms of the amount of public land owned by the state rather than the federal government.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Texas would eventually do fine, but the major recession that comes with such a radical change would probably lead to civil unrest.

The prospect of having to negotiate with Louisiana over shipping waters and oil refinery work, and have to regulate airspace separate from the FAA, shutting down NASA, the closing of Ft. Hood.

There is too much inter-dependency.

Why would NASA necessarily be shut down though?

Russian spaceships are still launched from Kazakhstan more than 20 years after the end of the Soviet Union.

[King]

Texas would eventually do fine, but the major recession that comes with such a radical change would probably lead to civil unrest.

The prospect of having to negotiate with Louisiana over shipping waters and oil refinery work, and have to regulate airspace separate from the FAA, shutting down NASA, the closing of Ft. Hood.

There is too much inter-dependency.

Why would NASA necessarily be shut down though?

Russian spaceships are still launched from Kazakhstan more than 20 years after the end of the Soviet Union.

Houston isn't the launch site, it's the control center. If anything, it would have to be made a US territory base within the Republic of Texas and not Texas property.

The US would have to want Texas to leave for a Texas secession to not be a disaster. If there's even an ounce of apprehension, the Texas economy would be in ruin without a military action needing to be taken.

[Sbane]

Now I'm not saying Texas would be better off being independent, but it would do fine.  Better than any Central American country, most South American countries and certainly light years better than Belarus.  You'd have to be pretty blinded by your biases to make such a claim me thinks.

The instability would ruin anything that is good about Texas. If the business community flees, what else is left?

Who owns the oil fields? (I honestly don't know, that's not a loaded question)

I don't see why an independent Texas would be doomed to a business fleeing economic basketcase.  It's full of smart people that love the state.  Way too much in my opinion, but none the less, people from Texas let you know they are from Texas.

The current GDP of Texas puts it 14th on the list of nations, ironically, (and this is fun) right between Spain and Mexico.  Sure it might not hold that spot with a split, but even if it drops ten fold (to 58th), it would still be twice the GDP of of any Central American country or Belarus.  handy cite.

Texas is full of Hank Hills, sure he's a stereotype, but it's a fairly accurate one as stereotypes go.

I think any of the mentioned states would do just fine on their own.  Probably not as good as they got it now, but fine.  I don't think any "inland" states could, you really need your own port.  Or at least they'd be starting behind a really big 8-ball.

I think it's safe to say Texas won't be as nice a place if it became independent, but it won't necessarily become Belarus either.

[King]

I would say Texas' GDP per capita would fall from about 46,500 today to around 30,000 and start growing back rapidly, but it would collapse initially.

[King]

Also, Texas has become a diverse state since the RoT days. Any secession talk would be coming from the East and panhandle. Most of West Texas would choose to stay in the USA, meaning the Alamo would no longer be in their Republic.