NC: PPP: Hagan up in close race

[Miles]

^ 38% is actually pretty decent for the white vote. Dole carried whites 57/39 in 2008.

If Hagan held that same level of support and the black share of the vote fell by, say 5%, she would have still cleared 50% of the two-party vote.

For comparison, my target for Landrieu is between 30-33%. The whites in LA are more hostile, but blacks should make up between 27-30% of the electorate, compared to less than a quarter for NC.

[Free Bird]

Miles or someone else who knows NC well, what is Hagan's target for the white vote? Romney carried the state 51-48 while Obama won only 31% of the white vote, and Hagan is currently receiving 38% in this poll. Obviously, black turnout will likely be down (though who knows how much) and they may go for Hagan by a slightly smaller margin, but at the moment she's only getting 67% which seems extremely unlikely. I couldn't find 2010 exit polls to compare to.

The ads she is putting out is trying to paint herself as a moderate who is for the working class.

Tillis ads? What is the general feeling from people you have spoken to about the race?

[Vern]

Miles or someone else who knows NC well, what is Hagan's target for the white vote? Romney carried the state 51-48 while Obama won only 31% of the white vote, and Hagan is currently receiving 38% in this poll. Obviously, black turnout will likely be down (though who knows how much) and they may go for Hagan by a slightly smaller margin, but at the moment she's only getting 67% which seems extremely unlikely. I couldn't find 2010 exit polls to compare to.

The ads she is putting out is trying to paint herself as a moderate who is for the working class.

Tillis ads? What is the general feeling from people you have spoken to about the race?

I haven't seen to many Tillis ads. But many people don't like either candidate.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-08-17

Summary: D: 42%, R: 38%, I: 8%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details