How will Senators up for reelection perform relative to 2008?
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  How will Senators up for reelection perform relative to 2008?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Will each Senator over perform or under perform their 2008 margin?
#1
AL: Sessions will over perform (26.84)		  
#2
AL: Sessions will under perform (26.84)		  
#3
AK: Begich will over perform (1.3)		  
#4
AK: Begich will under perform (1.3)		  
#5
AR: Pryor will over perform (59.06)		  
#6
AR: Pryor will under perform (59.06)		  
#7
CO: Udall will over perform (10.3)		  
#8
CO: Udall will under perform (10.3)		  
#9
ID: Risch will over perform (23.6)		  
#10
ID: Risch will under perform (23.6)		  
#11
IL: Durbin will over perform (39.31)		  
#12
IL: Durbin will under perform (39.31)		  
#13
KS: Roberts will over perform (23.6)		  
#14
KS: Roberts will under perform (23.6)		  
#15
KY: McConnell will over perform (6.0)		  
#16
KY: McConnell will under perform (6.0)		  
#17
LA: Landrieu will over perform (6.4)		  
#18
LA: Landrieu will under perform (6.4)		  
#19
ME: Collins will over perform (22.7)		  
#20
ME: Collins will under perform (22.7)		  
#21
MN: Franken will over perform (.01)		  
#22
MN: Franken will under perform (.01)		  
#23
MS: Cochran will over perform (22.8 )		  
#24
MS: Cochran will under perform (22.8 )		  
#25
NH: Shaheen will over perform (6.34)		  
#26
NH: Shaheen will under perform (6.34)		  
#27
NM: Udall will over perform (22.6)		  
#28
NM: Udall will under perform (22.6)		  
#29
NC: Hagan will over perform (8.5)		  
#30
NC: Hagan will under perform (8.5)		  
#31
OK: Inhofe will over perform (17.5)		  
#32
OK: Inhofe will under perform (17.5)		  
#33
OR: Merkley will over perform (3.35)		  
#34
OR: Merkley will under perform (3.35)		  
#35
RI: Reed will over perform (46.8 )		  
#36
RI: Reed will under perform (46.8 )		  
#37
SC: Graham will over perform (15.2)		  
#38
SC: Graham will under perform (15.2)		  
#39
TN: Alexander will over perform (32.5)		  
#40
TN: Alexander will under perform (32.5)		  
#41
TX: Cornyn will over perform (12.0)		  
#42
TX: Cornyn will under perform (12.0)		  
#43
VA: Warner will over perform (31.3)		  
#44
VA: Warner will under perform (31.3)		  
#45
WY: Enzi will over perform (51.3)		  
#46
WY: Enzi will under perform (51.3)		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 28

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: How will Senators up for reelection perform relative to 2008?  (Read 629 times)
NHLiberal
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« on: August 19, 2014, 12:59:59 PM »
Of the Senators up for reelection in 2014, which do you think will over perform their 2008 margin and which do you think will perform worse than in 2008?

Margin of victory will refer to their percentage of the vote minus that of their closest challenger, so it would be 6.34 for Jeanne Shaheen and 59.06 for Mark Pryor. Of course, if you think a given Senator will lose reelection, that means he/she will underperform.
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SWE
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2014, 01:34:15 PM »
Pryor will over perform
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2014, 03:19:06 PM »
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IceSpear
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E: -6.19, S: -6.43

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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2014, 04:44:31 PM »

This.

Sessions will underperform as well.
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Indy Texas
independentTX
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E: 0.52, S: -3.48

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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2014, 06:02:12 PM »
Pretty much all the red-state Republicans will overperform. So will Franken.
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Dixie Reborn
BeyondTruthAndIdeals
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2014, 06:05:02 PM »

lol
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2014, 06:22:07 PM »
Sessions: Over perform (duh)
Begich: Under perform
Pryor: Under perform (duh)
Udall: Under perform
Risch: Over perform
Durbin: Under perform
Roberts: Under perform
McConnell: Under perform
Landrieu: Under perform
Collins: Over perform
Franken: Over perform (duh)
Cochran: Under perform
Shaheen: Over perform
Udall: Under perform
Hagan: Under perform
Inhofe: Over perform
Merkley: Over perform
Reed: Under perform
Graham: Under perform
Alexander: Under perform
Cornyn: Over perform
Warner: Under perform
Enzi: Under perform

AK, SC, TN, and WY were all tough, but I lean under perform for all.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2014, 06:18:53 AM »
Pretty amazing how unified many of these responses are. I mean, they're mostly pretty obvious, but even "obvious" questions on Atlas usually get at least 10% disagreeing if there's a partisan angle to it.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2014, 05:33:19 PM »
Quote from: Nichlemn on August 20, 2014, 06:18:53 AM
Pretty amazing how unified many of these responses are. I mean, they're mostly pretty obvious, but even "obvious" questions on Atlas usually get at least 10% disagreeing if there's a partisan angle to it.

Agreed- I'm glad there are no Dem hacks saying Hagan/Udall will over perform or Republican hacks saying McConnell will. The most split ones seem to be the meaningless ones like Wyoming and New Mexico, where it's clear that the incumbent will win big, but just not by how much because polling is often unreliable about the margins in landslides.
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