Who wins control?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 12:03:47 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Who wins control?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4
Poll
Question: Who will win Senate control in November?
#1
Republicans		  
#2
Democrats		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 77

Author Topic: Who wins control?  (Read 4795 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 19, 2014, 07:26:44 PM »
« edited: August 19, 2014, 07:30:09 PM by FreedomHawk »
Decided to reinstate this poll due to recent developments and such. Try not to be delusional when discussing. You can also discuss with how many seats!
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2014, 07:29:45 PM »
Republicans
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2014, 07:30:22 PM »

With exactly 6 seats I presume?
Logged
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2014, 07:49:48 PM »
Democrats via the Tie-Breaking vote of Vice President Biden.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2014, 07:53:50 PM »
Quote from: Vega on August 19, 2014, 07:49:48 PM
Democrats via the Tie-Breaking vote of Vice President Biden.

Explain seats.
I'm seeing WV, SD, MT, AR, IA, NC, and then LA in December flipping.
Logged
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2014, 08:00:12 PM »
Quote from: FreedomHawk on August 19, 2014, 07:53:50 PM
Quote from: Vega on August 19, 2014, 07:49:48 PM
Democrats via the Tie-Breaking vote of Vice President Biden.

Explain seats.

Republicans pickup AR, LA, SD, MT and WV.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2014, 08:02:48 PM »

Yes. The tipping point for me is Alaska, which no one thinks will go republican. Polls have consistently showed Begich ahead by no more than 5 points, and Alaska polling is usually proven afterward to underestimate republicans.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2014, 08:03:51 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on August 19, 2014, 08:02:48 PM

Yes. The tipping point for me is Alaska, which no one thinks will go republican. Polls have consistently showed Begich ahead by no more than 5 points, and Alaska polling is usually proven afterward to underestimate republicans.

What are your overall pickup states
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2014, 08:08:56 PM »
Quote from: FreedomHawk on August 19, 2014, 08:03:51 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on August 19, 2014, 08:02:48 PM

Yes. The tipping point for me is Alaska, which no one thinks will go republican. Polls have consistently showed Begich ahead by no more than 5 points, and Alaska polling is usually proven afterward to underestimate republicans.

What are your overall pickup states
Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,309
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2014, 08:28:16 PM »
Quote from: Vega on August 19, 2014, 07:49:48 PM
Democrats via the Tie-Breaking vote of Vice President Biden.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,325
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2014, 08:34:45 PM »
Gun to my head, Republicans, ATM.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2014, 08:38:55 PM »
Republicans.

AR, LA, SD, MT, WV, and NC.
Logged
GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2014, 10:31:48 PM »
Republicans.

All the Romney states (other than Alaska) + Iowa and maybe Colorado
Logged
Senator Cris
Cris
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,613
Italy


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2014, 01:55:58 AM »
I'm still convinced that the GOP will gain SD, MT, WV and AR. Also the GOP will probably carry LA, with Landrieu that has still a possibility If the Dems will win the control in November.
So, I say 50-50 but the GOP has great opportunity, in order of probability, in AK, NC, IA and CO.
Logged
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,637
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2014, 05:53:13 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2014, 06:58:11 AM by solarstorm2012 »
In my estimation, there will be a net change of +1R:
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2014, 06:02:30 AM »
Quote from: solarstorm2012 on August 20, 2014, 05:53:13 AM
In my estimation, there won't be a net change:



Politely turn in your sanity badge if you think Montana will stay D
Logged
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,637
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2014, 06:35:21 AM »
Have you seen a poll between Daines and Curtis?
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2014, 06:40:38 AM »
Quote from: solarstorm2012 on August 20, 2014, 06:35:21 AM
Have you seen a poll between Daines and Curtis?

Have you seen a poll between Daines and Walsh? So if a poll doesn't exist, it's D favored? Greeat. Look at the broader picture. This candidate has next to no experience, has virtually no time to campaign, is on the coattails of an unpopular president, and maintains the shameful flavor Walsh left, versus a man who had a huge lead over someone who is in shame now, and was the favorite to begin with. Get your head out of the gutter and look at the facts instead of bringing up nonexistent arguments that would further sink this horrible prediction.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2014, 06:41:48 AM »
Quote from: solarstorm2012 on August 20, 2014, 06:35:21 AM
Have you seen a poll between Daines and Curtis?

Because a lefty-liberal little known state senator is going to perform so much better in a poll than an appointed Lt. Governor incumbent who been in the race for months.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2014, 06:43:29 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on August 20, 2014, 06:41:48 AM
Quote from: solarstorm2012 on August 20, 2014, 06:35:21 AM
Have you seen a poll between Daines and Curtis?

Because a lefty-liberal little known state senator is going to perform so much better in a poll than an appointed Lt. Governor incumbent who been in the race for months.

In a red state for that matter
Logged
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,637
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 20, 2014, 06:54:19 AM »
Okay, I've changed my map so that everybody will be content...
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2014, 06:58:21 AM »
Quote from: solarstorm2012 on August 20, 2014, 06:54:19 AM
Okay, I've changed my map so that everybody will be content...

Then there's Kentucky and Georgia... and Arkansas to an extent...
Logged
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,095
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 20, 2014, 06:59:33 AM »
Democrats. Republicans will inevitably piss away 2-3 races they should otherwise win. Again.
Logged
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,637
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 20, 2014, 07:01:00 AM »
Quote from: FreedomHawk on August 20, 2014, 06:58:21 AM
Quote from: solarstorm2012 on August 20, 2014, 06:54:19 AM
Okay, I've changed my map so that everybody will be content...

Then there's Kentucky and Georgia... and Arkansas to an extent...

If you don't shut up I'll color West Virginia red. Tongue
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 20, 2014, 07:26:39 AM »
Quote from: dmmidmi on August 20, 2014, 06:59:33 AM
Democrats. Republicans will inevitably piss away 2-3 races they should otherwise win. Again.

Is that true objective thinking or a bias speaking when there is no evidence a candidate in this field would do that?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.043 seconds with 13 queries.