Who wins control?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP will gain 3-4 seats WVA, MT, and SD.

Dems should carry Ak,and NC.

AR and KY and GA, slight GOP lean.

La pure tossup

[dmmidmi]

Democrats. Republicans will inevitably piss away 2-3 races they should otherwise win. Again.

Is that true objective thinking or a bias speaking when there is no evidence a candidate in this field would do that?

To answer your question: this is true, objective thinking.

[backtored]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction. 

[Miles]

FWIW, the Upshot has Republicans' chanes up to 61%.

[Senator Cris]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction. 

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

[dmmidmi]

FWIW, the Upshot has Republicans' chanes up to 61%.

Is the Upshot a poor man's version of FiveThirtyEight?

[backtored]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction.  

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

Gardner will win for the same reason that I could see Tillis losing in North Carolina.  It is hard to overstate how unpopular Democrats have become in Colorado because of the president's unpopularity here and also because of the great overreach in the state legislature by local Democrats.  Since the 2012 landslide, and really for the first time in at least eight years, Republicans have been winning almost everything in the state--ballot initiatives, local races, and, of course, the recalls.  Not only have they been winning, but they've actually been winning by striking margins that literally no local politico has expected.   The anti-Democrat sentiment in the state will take an absolute toss-up race and give it a slight GOP advantage.  

In North Carolina the opposite dynamic could sink Tillis, especially given his leadership in the NC assembly, although Tillis' numbers are really bad and yet he is still at least even with Hagan.  If the legislature's unpopularity in the state hasn't sunk him by now, it likely won't before November and he'll win by a few points.

[TDAS04]

Democrats via the Tie-Breaking vote of Vice President Biden.

Explain seats.

Republicans pickup AR, LA, SD, MT and WV.

This.

[Free Bird]

UpShot still being stupid with Iowa, I see

[Free Bird]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction.  

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

Gardner will win for the same reason that I could see Tillis losing in North Carolina.  It is hard to overstate how unpopular Democrats have become in Colorado because of the president's unpopularity here and also because of the great overreach in the state legislature by local Democrats.  Since the 2012 landslide, and really for the first time in at least eight years, Republicans have been winning almost everything in the state--ballot initiatives, local races, and, of course, the recalls.  Not only have they been winning, but they've actually been winning by striking margins that literally no local politico has expected.   The anti-Democrat sentiment in the state will take an absolute toss-up race and give it a slight GOP advantage.  

In North Carolina the opposite dynamic could sink Tillis, especially given his leadership in the NC assembly, although Tillis' numbers are really bad and yet he is still at least even with Hagan.  If the legislature's unpopularity in the state hasn't sunk him by now, it likely won't before November and he'll win by a few points.

So Colorado is experiencing a state version of 1994?

[Gass3268]

Republicans win  AR, LA, SD, MT and WV.  AK, CO, IA and NC are close but don't flip. GA and KY are also close.

Democrats hold the Senate with Biden's vote.

[Del Tachi]

GOP +8 (MT, SD, WV, LA, AR, IA, NC, AK)

[backtored]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction.  

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

Gardner will win for the same reason that I could see Tillis losing in North Carolina.  It is hard to overstate how unpopular Democrats have become in Colorado because of the president's unpopularity here and also because of the great overreach in the state legislature by local Democrats.  Since the 2012 landslide, and really for the first time in at least eight years, Republicans have been winning almost everything in the state--ballot initiatives, local races, and, of course, the recalls.  Not only have they been winning, but they've actually been winning by striking margins that literally no local politico has expected.   The anti-Democrat sentiment in the state will take an absolute toss-up race and give it a slight GOP advantage.  

In North Carolina the opposite dynamic could sink Tillis, especially given his leadership in the NC assembly, although Tillis' numbers are really bad and yet he is still at least even with Hagan.  If the legislature's unpopularity in the state hasn't sunk him by now, it likely won't before November and he'll win by a few points.

So Colorado is experiencing a state version of 1994?

No, Colorado is having its 2010 four years later than the rest of the country.  Or, possibly, even a 1980-esque realignment, although it will be several years before that can be determined.  Gun control flipped Texas to the GOP, and it might have done it for Colorado, too.

The reality is that the red buttons in state politics are tax hikes and gun controls, and the Democrats hit both in the same year.  It shattered the illusion of  libertarian-y Democratic Party in the west that independents and squishy Republicans could get behind.  The last year has been about piecing together the whole thing and figuring out how it all goes, where old electoral alliances stand.  So far that has meant a firm rejection of Democratic ideas and candidates, and I suspect that that trend continues into November and beyond.

[Free Bird]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction.  

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

Gardner will win for the same reason that I could see Tillis losing in North Carolina.  It is hard to overstate how unpopular Democrats have become in Colorado because of the president's unpopularity here and also because of the great overreach in the state legislature by local Democrats.  Since the 2012 landslide, and really for the first time in at least eight years, Republicans have been winning almost everything in the state--ballot initiatives, local races, and, of course, the recalls.  Not only have they been winning, but they've actually been winning by striking margins that literally no local politico has expected.   The anti-Democrat sentiment in the state will take an absolute toss-up race and give it a slight GOP advantage.  

In North Carolina the opposite dynamic could sink Tillis, especially given his leadership in the NC assembly, although Tillis' numbers are really bad and yet he is still at least even with Hagan.  If the legislature's unpopularity in the state hasn't sunk him by now, it likely won't before November and he'll win by a few points.

So Colorado is experiencing a state version of 1994?

No, Colorado is having its 2010 four years later than the rest of the country.  Or, possibly, even a 1980-esque realignment, although it will be several years before that can be determined.  Gun control flipped Texas to the GOP, and it might have done it for Colorado, too.

The reality is that the red buttons in state politics are tax hikes and gun controls, and the Democrats hit both in the same year.  It shattered the illusion of  libertarian-y Democratic Party in the west that independents and squishy Republicans could get behind.  The last year has been about piecing together the whole thing and figuring out how it all goes, where old electoral alliances stand.  So far that has meant a firm rejection of Democratic ideas and candidates, and I suspect that that trend continues into November and beyond.

In this case, why do the polls look tied up (this race is really underpolled) and why is everyone on the forum convinced it's Udall? Then again never question the delusion of the users here xD

[backtored]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction.  

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

Gardner will win for the same reason that I could see Tillis losing in North Carolina.  It is hard to overstate how unpopular Democrats have become in Colorado because of the president's unpopularity here and also because of the great overreach in the state legislature by local Democrats.  Since the 2012 landslide, and really for the first time in at least eight years, Republicans have been winning almost everything in the state--ballot initiatives, local races, and, of course, the recalls.  Not only have they been winning, but they've actually been winning by striking margins that literally no local politico has expected.   The anti-Democrat sentiment in the state will take an absolute toss-up race and give it a slight GOP advantage.  

In North Carolina the opposite dynamic could sink Tillis, especially given his leadership in the NC assembly, although Tillis' numbers are really bad and yet he is still at least even with Hagan.  If the legislature's unpopularity in the state hasn't sunk him by now, it likely won't before November and he'll win by a few points.

So Colorado is experiencing a state version of 1994?

No, Colorado is having its 2010 four years later than the rest of the country.  Or, possibly, even a 1980-esque realignment, although it will be several years before that can be determined.  Gun control flipped Texas to the GOP, and it might have done it for Colorado, too.

The reality is that the red buttons in state politics are tax hikes and gun controls, and the Democrats hit both in the same year.  It shattered the illusion of  libertarian-y Democratic Party in the west that independents and squishy Republicans could get behind.  The last year has been about piecing together the whole thing and figuring out how it all goes, where old electoral alliances stand.  So far that has meant a firm rejection of Democratic ideas and candidates, and I suspect that that trend continues into November and beyond.

In this case, why do the polls look tied up (this race is really underpolled) and why is everyone on the forum convinced it's Udall? Then again never question the delusion of the users here xD

1.) Because Colorado is a ferociously polarized state almost evenly divided between deeply conservative Republicans and increasingly liberal Democrats. 

2.) Because it is, after all, the forum.

[Free Bird]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction.  

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

Gardner will win for the same reason that I could see Tillis losing in North Carolina.  It is hard to overstate how unpopular Democrats have become in Colorado because of the president's unpopularity here and also because of the great overreach in the state legislature by local Democrats.  Since the 2012 landslide, and really for the first time in at least eight years, Republicans have been winning almost everything in the state--ballot initiatives, local races, and, of course, the recalls.  Not only have they been winning, but they've actually been winning by striking margins that literally no local politico has expected.   The anti-Democrat sentiment in the state will take an absolute toss-up race and give it a slight GOP advantage.  

In North Carolina the opposite dynamic could sink Tillis, especially given his leadership in the NC assembly, although Tillis' numbers are really bad and yet he is still at least even with Hagan.  If the legislature's unpopularity in the state hasn't sunk him by now, it likely won't before November and he'll win by a few points.

So Colorado is experiencing a state version of 1994?

No, Colorado is having its 2010 four years later than the rest of the country.  Or, possibly, even a 1980-esque realignment, although it will be several years before that can be determined.  Gun control flipped Texas to the GOP, and it might have done it for Colorado, too.

The reality is that the red buttons in state politics are tax hikes and gun controls, and the Democrats hit both in the same year.  It shattered the illusion of  libertarian-y Democratic Party in the west that independents and squishy Republicans could get behind.  The last year has been about piecing together the whole thing and figuring out how it all goes, where old electoral alliances stand.  So far that has meant a firm rejection of Democratic ideas and candidates, and I suspect that that trend continues into November and beyond.

In this case, why do the polls look tied up (this race is really underpolled) and why is everyone on the forum convinced it's Udall? Then again never question the delusion of the users here xD

1.) Because Colorado is a ferociously polarized state almost evenly divided between deeply conservative Republicans and increasingly liberal Democrats. 

2.) Because it is, after all, the forum.

In that case it's going to be a matter of turnout. If CO is dead even , then whoever gets polled just a tad more tips it. With Democrat enthusiasm down this year, I see reason to be optimistic.

[Person Man]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction.  

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

Gardner will win for the same reason that I could see Tillis losing in North Carolina.  It is hard to overstate how unpopular Democrats have become in Colorado because of the president's unpopularity here and also because of the great overreach in the state legislature by local Democrats.  Since the 2012 landslide, and really for the first time in at least eight years, Republicans have been winning almost everything in the state--ballot initiatives, local races, and, of course, the recalls.  Not only have they been winning, but they've actually been winning by striking margins that literally no local politico has expected.   The anti-Democrat sentiment in the state will take an absolute toss-up race and give it a slight GOP advantage.  

In North Carolina the opposite dynamic could sink Tillis, especially given his leadership in the NC assembly, although Tillis' numbers are really bad and yet he is still at least even with Hagan.  If the legislature's unpopularity in the state hasn't sunk him by now, it likely won't before November and he'll win by a few points.

So Colorado is experiencing a state version of 1994?

No, Colorado is having its 2010 four years later than the rest of the country.  Or, possibly, even a 1980-esque realignment, although it will be several years before that can be determined.  Gun control flipped Texas to the GOP, and it might have done it for Colorado, too.

The reality is that the red buttons in state politics are tax hikes and gun controls, and the Democrats hit both in the same year.  It shattered the illusion of  libertarian-y Democratic Party in the west that independents and squishy Republicans could get behind.  The last year has been about piecing together the whole thing and figuring out how it all goes, where old electoral alliances stand.  So far that has meant a firm rejection of Democratic ideas and candidates, and I suspect that that trend continues into November and beyond.

In this case, why do the polls look tied up (this race is really underpolled) and why is everyone on the forum convinced it's Udall? Then again never question the delusion of the users here xD

1.) Because Colorado is a ferociously polarized state almost evenly divided between deeply conservative Republicans and increasingly liberal Democrats.  

2.) Because it is, after all, the forum.

It could be a 2010 style thing, but I don't think there will be a long lasting realignment. Well, maybe the Republicans will do very well until they over extend on civil rights(abortion,gay rights, immigration), education and the environment (mining operations damaging hunting grounds). It is perhaps already happening in Jefferson County(where business groups are endorsing local democrats over local Republicans because of the radical right-libertarians that were nominated there). I don't see Colorado being  made a "red state", though. I think, at most, it will be like 1994 to 2004, where Democrats did poorly, but the state never was out of play save when Bush did very well in 2000 because Nader played well and Gore didn't campaign.

I am still not concern Gardner is favored at all though, there is very little pooling of this race, there have been ethical issues down ballot and he is trying to sell a very conservative platform that he is trying to say he favors and opposes at the same time. Also the $ race isn't going as well as it could for the GOP.   Let me just put it this way- I'm not expecting a wave in Colorado, but if does happen its because Democrats had a sh**t campaign, but if the Republicans don't at least win a chamber in the GA and do well down ballot, it was because they ran a sh**t campaign.

Though one thing- there do seem to be a lot of paleoconservative and conservative bumper stickers on cars and I do see Fox News on in public places, too. There was a fracking ban that got voted down by 4 points but the proponents were outfunded 10:1.

[GaussLaw]

The 52/48 split here shows that this forum is very left-leaning.  When virtually every forecaster is to the right of Atlas, it shows some bias here. 


The GOP nominated a pretty solid slate of candidates this year, and it seems tough to envision them not getting at least 5, and 6 seems like at least a 50/50 at this point, especially with Colorado's rapid GOP trend and McConnell's/Perdue's strength.

[Free Bird]

The 52/48 split here shows that this forum is very left-leaning.  When virtually every forecaster is to the right of Atlas, it shows some bias here. 


The GOP nominated a pretty solid slate of candidates this year, and it seems tough to envision them not getting at least 5, and 6 seems like at least a 50/50 at this point, especially with Colorado's rapid GOP trend and McConnell's/Perdue's strength.

It's not that the forum itself is left leaning, there are just more Democrats. But people really do need to wake up here. There are basically 3 seats down, 2 locking up, and that only leaves 1 more, and withholding a Democrat blowout, which just isn't happening this year, is Bound to happen in one of the 4 with excellent candidates. It is simple logic

[Vega]

It's not that the forum itself is left leaning, there are just more Democrats.

And what are most, if not all Atlas Democrats? Left Leaning.

Nit picking aside, there do seem to be more Democrats + Greens than Republicans + Libertarian etc.

[7,052,770]

Democrats. Republicans will inevitably piss away 2-3 races they should otherwise win. Again.

Is that true objective thinking or a bias speaking when there is no evidence a candidate in this field would do that?

Not that Iowa was ever in the Republican camp, but Ernst likely fits the bill of the O'Donnell type who blows a potentially winnable race. Tillis is another subpar candidate who may piss away a winnable race.

Overall, though, I think you're right in that Republicans are finally cutting down on these situations.

[Free Bird]

Democrats. Republicans will inevitably piss away 2-3 races they should otherwise win. Again.

Is that true objective thinking or a bias speaking when there is no evidence a candidate in this field would do that?

Not that Iowa was ever in the Republican camp, but Ernst likely fits the bill of the O'Donnell type who blows a potentially winnable race. Tillis is another subpar candidate who may piss away a winnable race.

Overall, though, I think you're right in that Republicans are finally cutting down on these situations.

I will forever say until Election Day that if Ernst wins, it's actually Braley losing

[Person Man]

Democrats. Republicans will inevitably piss away 2-3 races they should otherwise win. Again.

Is that true objective thinking or a bias speaking when there is no evidence a candidate in this field would do that?

Not that Iowa was ever in the Republican camp, but Ernst likely fits the bill of the O'Donnell type who blows a potentially winnable race. Tillis is another subpar candidate who may piss away a winnable race.

Overall, though, I think you're right in that Republicans are finally cutting down on these situations.

I will forever say until Election Day that if Ernst wins, it's actually Braley losing

I would say that about this election in general. Whoever loses just CAN'T run a campaign (Republicans or post-Obama Democrats).

[King]

Slight GOP increase in the Senate, slight Democrat increase in the House, no change to control.

[Brewer]

Dems hold the Senate 52-48.

Republicans pick up LA, MT, WV, SD
Democrats pick up KY and GA.