Who wins control?

[GaussLaw]

Dems hold the Senate 52-48.

Republicans pick up LA, MT, WV, SD
Democrats pick up KY and GA.

LOLno on Georgia.  Perdue is now up to 50 in SUSA's latest poll and all he has to do is keep Nunn under 50.

[NHLiberal]

Dems hold the Senate 51-49.

Republicans pick up LA, MT, WV, SD, and AR
Democrats pick up KY and GA.

[Vega]

Dems hold the Senate 51-49.

Republicans pick up LA, MT, WV, SD, and AR
Democrats pick up KY and GA.

At this point I think it is far more likely Democrats pick up GA than Georgia - though I doubt they'll win either.

[KCDem]

The Democratic party easily retains control.

[Dixie Reborn]

The Democratic party easily retains control.

Seriously, what the hell have you been smoking these past few months. Even if the Democratic party retains control, it won't be "easily".

[Free Bird]

The Democratic party easily retains control.

Seriously, what the hell have you been smoking these past few months. Even if the Democratic party retains control, it won't be "easily".

[KCDem]

The Democratic party easily retains control.

Seriously, what the hell have you been smoking these past few months. Even if the Democratic party retains control, it won't be "easily".

"Easily" doesn't necessarily mean they'll have a large majority. But the Democrats have a high floor and low ceiling in the Senate. Predictions that the Democrats will lose 8-9 seats are laughable and extremely unlikely. For Republicans, the hardest will be to get to that 6th net seat pickup. You all need to stop reading RedState and use some analytical thinking.

[Tender Branson]

Lean GOP (also voted so).

But still too early to tell.

[Frodo]

I expect to see the GOP in control of the upper chamber by this time next year, and (combined with opportunistic defections) with a margin large enough to survive 2016. 

[Talleyrand]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

[Flake]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Lol

But I predict the Democrats retain the Senate, from 50-50 to 52-48

[Free Bird]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Lol

But I predict the Democrats retain the Senate, from 50-50 to 52-48

Hey considering the map, it's possible

[Flake]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Lol

But I predict the Democrats retain the Senate, from 50-50 to 52-48

Hey considering the map, it's possible

But highly unlikely.

[Brittain33]

Lean GOP, with high variability. Right now the Dems lose SD, WV, and MT, are only even odds in AR, LA, NC, and AK (yes, Alaska will tighten up), and there's too much risk baked into IA and CO to feel comfortable. Match that against GA which is too inelastic to let Nunn win and KY, where Grimes is even odds to win, and I feel Dems need more breaks than Republicans to finish up even.

[Vosem]

The Democratic party easily retains control.

Seriously, what the hell have you been smoking these past few months. Even if the Democratic party retains control, it won't be "easily".

I mistook your signature for KCDem's reply: "What the hell have you been smoking?" "Common sense."

Anyway, in answer to the thread's question, probably Republicans, but quite narrowly and they could well lose it again in 2016.

[ElectionsGuy]

The Democratic party easily retains control.

Seriously, what the hell have you been smoking these past few months. Even if the Democratic party retains control, it won't be "easily".

"Easily" doesn't necessarily mean they'll have a large majority. But the Democrats have a high floor and low ceiling in the Senate. Predictions that the Democrats will lose 8-9 seats are laughable and extremely unlikely. For Republicans, the hardest will be to get to that 6th net seat pickup. You all need to stop reading RedState and use some analytical thinking.

No one is reading Red State (whatever that is). The majority of outlets that cover the 2014 election in depth and use "analytical thinking" say that the republicans have a higher chance of taking control of the senate than democrats do of retaining control. I agree that republicans gaining 8-9 seats is unlikely, but whats also unlikely is that democrats end up with 52 seats or more after this election.

[dmmidmi]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

[Free Bird]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

[dmmidmi]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Sure. Let's see the analytical website with the clear prediction that the GOP will pick up nine seats.

[Never]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Sure. Let's see the analytical website with the clear prediction that the GOP will pick up nine seats.

From what I see at Upshot as of today, it looks like the GOP could conceivably win three safe pickups (MT/SD/WV), hold on to its two competitive seats (GA/KY), and win six of the seven Democrat-held competitive seats to pick up a total of nine seats. I think that's unlikely; a Republican net pick up of six or seven Senate seats is the most plausible outcome, but nine seats could happen on a good night for the GOP. The chance is low, but still there. So there isn't anyone making a clear prediction that the GOP will make a pickup of nine seats, but it's not completely ridiculous. After all, a lot could happen between now and November.

[dmmidmi]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Sure. Let's see the analytical website with the clear prediction that the GOP will pick up nine seats.

From what I see at Upshot as of today, it looks like the GOP could conceivably win three safe pickups (MT/SD/WV), hold on to its two competitive seats (GA/KY), and win six of the seven Democrat-held competitive seats to pick up a total of nine seats. I think that's unlikely; a Republican net pick up of six or seven Senate seats is the most plausible outcome, but nine seats could happen on a good night for the GOP. The chance is low, but still there. So there isn't anyone making a clear prediction that the GOP will make a pickup of nine seats, but it's not completely ridiculous. After all, a lot could happen between now and November.

They identify six Senate seats that the GOP has >50% chance of picking up.

I'm still waiting on the analysis that says that nine is a very real scenario.

[Never]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Sure. Let's see the analytical website with the clear prediction that the GOP will pick up nine seats.

From what I see at Upshot as of today, it looks like the GOP could conceivably win three safe pickups (MT/SD/WV), hold on to its two competitive seats (GA/KY), and win six of the seven Democrat-held competitive seats to pick up a total of nine seats. I think that's unlikely; a Republican net pick up of six or seven Senate seats is the most plausible outcome, but nine seats could happen on a good night for the GOP. The chance is low, but still there. So there isn't anyone making a clear prediction that the GOP will make a pickup of nine seats, but it's not completely ridiculous. After all, a lot could happen between now and November.

They identify six Senate seats that the GOP has >50% chance of picking up.

I'm still waiting on the analysis that says that nine is a very real scenario.

There isn't an analysis showing that (I'm pretty sure I clarified this in my prior post), but with Sabato having the high end of Republican pickups at eight, it is not out of the question that we could see a more favorable Republican environment between now and November showing the upper range of Republican pickups at nine.

[dmmidmi]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Sure. Let's see the analytical website with the clear prediction that the GOP will pick up nine seats.

From what I see at Upshot as of today, it looks like the GOP could conceivably win three safe pickups (MT/SD/WV), hold on to its two competitive seats (GA/KY), and win six of the seven Democrat-held competitive seats to pick up a total of nine seats. I think that's unlikely; a Republican net pick up of six or seven Senate seats is the most plausible outcome, but nine seats could happen on a good night for the GOP. The chance is low, but still there. So there isn't anyone making a clear prediction that the GOP will make a pickup of nine seats, but it's not completely ridiculous. After all, a lot could happen between now and November.

They identify six Senate seats that the GOP has >50% chance of picking up.

I'm still waiting on the analysis that says that nine is a very real scenario.

There isn't an analysis showing that (I'm pretty sure I clarified this in my prior post), but with Sabato having the high end of Republican pickups at eight, it is not out of the question that we could see a more favorable Republican environment between now and November showing the upper range of Republican pickups at nine.

Good. That's what I was getting at here. Because of this:

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

[Never]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Sure. Let's see the analytical website with the clear prediction that the GOP will pick up nine seats.

From what I see at Upshot as of today, it looks like the GOP could conceivably win three safe pickups (MT/SD/WV), hold on to its two competitive seats (GA/KY), and win six of the seven Democrat-held competitive seats to pick up a total of nine seats. I think that's unlikely; a Republican net pick up of six or seven Senate seats is the most plausible outcome, but nine seats could happen on a good night for the GOP. The chance is low, but still there. So there isn't anyone making a clear prediction that the GOP will make a pickup of nine seats, but it's not completely ridiculous. After all, a lot could happen between now and November.

They identify six Senate seats that the GOP has >50% chance of picking up.

I'm still waiting on the analysis that says that nine is a very real scenario.

There isn't an analysis showing that (I'm pretty sure I clarified this in my prior post), but with Sabato having the high end of Republican pickups at eight, it is not out of the question that we could see a more favorable Republican environment between now and November showing the upper range of Republican pickups at nine.

Good. That's what I was getting at here. Because of this:

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Okay, we're on the same page about this. I'm an avid follower of the major predictions, and I haven't seen an analysis showing a Republican pick up that large so far this year.

[Person Man]

The tipping is most likely NC, AK or IA. CO NH and MI would be next. Maybe they will win 11. Maybe they will win 3.