Florida (SurveyUSA): Hillary leads Romney by 7
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  Florida (SurveyUSA): Hillary leads Romney by 7
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Author Topic: Florida (SurveyUSA): Hillary leads Romney by 7  (Read 1436 times)
IceSpear
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« on: August 19, 2014, 11:33:24 PM »

Clinton 48
Romney 41

Dominating!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2014, 01:22:57 AM »

Also, Biden vs. Romney:

Romney 47%
Biden 39%

Clinton vs. Romney race:

Whites
Romney 46%
Clinton 44%

Blacks
Clinton 72%
Romney 14%

Asians
Clinton 50%
Romney 35%

Cuban Hispanics
Romney 56%
Clinton 37%

non-Cuban Hispanics
Clinton 59%
Romney 33%

In the Biden vs. Romney matchup, Romney actually leads among both Asians and non-Cuban Hispanics.

Clinton vs. Romney education:
high school only: Clinton +8%
some college: Clinton +8%
college graduate: Clinton +6%
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2014, 06:38:28 AM »

I know that breakdowns in polls like these are almost useless given the statistical uncertainty, but Hillarys performance amongst minorities is comparatively weak, while her performance with whites is comparatively strong.
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Zyzz
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2014, 10:02:26 PM »

I know that breakdowns in polls like these are almost useless given the statistical uncertainty, but Hillarys performance amongst minorities is comparatively weak, while her performance with whites is comparatively strong.

Obama is black.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2014, 10:17:14 PM »
« Edited: August 23, 2014, 08:39:02 AM by pbrower2a »

That Hispanics of Cuban origin are approaching the voting patterns of other Hispanics indicates that the GOP is losing them.

It could be that Mitt Romney lost Florida in 2012 with the infamous Spanish-language ad that tried to connect President Obama to Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez... but a 7% lead is much bigger than the margin of either Obama victory in Florida.  

(Sorry -- I misread the stats due to dirty glasses).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2014, 05:18:54 AM »

That Hispanics of Cuban origin are approaching the voting patterns of other Hispanics indicates that the GOP is losing them.

In what way does this poll suggest that their voting patterns are converging?  They look pretty different in this poll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2014, 06:34:48 AM »

That Hispanics of Cuban origin are approaching the voting patterns of other Hispanics indicates that the GOP is losing them.

In what way does this poll suggest that their voting patterns are converging?  They look pretty different in this poll.


From the poll:

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Cuban-Americans in Florida used to be a reliably-Republican voting bloc. Republicans can no longer rely upon the appeal that "Democrats are tools of Fidel Castro".
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2014, 06:43:53 AM »

That Hispanics of Cuban origin are approaching the voting patterns of other Hispanics indicates that the GOP is losing them.

In what way does this poll suggest that their voting patterns are converging?  They look pretty different in this poll.


From the poll:

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Cuban-Americans in Florida used to be a reliably-Republican voting bloc. Republicans can no longer rely upon the appeal that "Democrats are tools of Fidel Castro".

Huh

What are you talking about?  Romney has a huge lead among Cubans in that poll, according to the very numbers that you're quoting, while Clinton has a huge lead among non-Cuban Hispanics.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2014, 07:16:43 AM »

That Hispanics of Cuban origin are approaching the voting patterns of other Hispanics indicates that the GOP is losing them.

In what way does this poll suggest that their voting patterns are converging?  They look pretty different in this poll.


From the poll:

Quote
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Cuban-Americans in Florida used to be a reliably-Republican voting bloc. Republicans can no longer rely upon the appeal that "Democrats are tools of Fidel Castro".

Huh

What are you talking about?  Romney has a huge lead among Cubans in that poll, according to the very numbers that you're quoting, while Clinton has a huge lead among non-Cuban Hispanics.


I discuss a change from the past in which most Cuban-Americans, at least in Florida, were reliable voters for Republicans in Presidential elections. Not all Hispanics in Florida are Cuban-Americans, and non-Cuban were never as amenable to GOP appeals that "Democrats are buddies of Fidel Castro". If one is a Mexican-American, is "Fidel Castro" as visceral a set of syllables as they were to someone who had fled Fidel Castro?

From the poll:

Quote
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This is very different from:

Quote
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I think that we are seeing Republicans show that they have become incompetent at making successful and relevant appeals to Hispanics of any kind, and the execrable performance of Republicans among Cuban-Americans shows that such a failure comes from a difference in culture. To be sure, "Cuban Hispanics" are no longer as lily-white as they were in the 1960s due to a large number of Afro-Cubans in the Mariel boat-lift.

But even without the racial angle, younger Cuban-Americans are peeling away from the GOP on economic and cultural issues that have nothing to do with opposition to Communism.  Democrats have learned to say nothing flattering about Fidel Castro. Culture matters, and Cuban-Americans are heavily Catholic. Catholics on the whole have little use for GOP pandering to Protestant fundamentalists on such superstition and pseudoscience as creationism.

 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2014, 07:32:20 AM »

I discuss a change from the past in which most Cuban-Americans, at least in Florida, were reliable voters for Republicans in Presidential elections.

How is this a change from the past, when this very poll, the very numbers that you're quoting, shows most Cuban-Americans in Florida currently supporting Romney over Clinton in a hypothetical presidential matchup?

Now, you can argue that the sample size on these subgroups are too small to mean anything, but that's not what you're saying.  You seem to think that this poll shows Cuban-Americans in Florida supporting Democrats when that's the opposite of what it shows.  It shows Romney doing better with Cuban-Americans in Florida than he does with either non-Cuban Hispanics or with whites.  Is that really so confusing?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2014, 08:53:57 AM »

I misread it (dirty glasses!), inverting the approval. Glasses cleaned, I take back some of what I said as simply wrong.  But even so, Cuban-Americans in Florida used to vote something like 75-25 for Republicans.

Any erosion of support from any once-solid constituency hurts the Party that used to rely upon that constituency. So if the vote of unionized workers or Jews for a Democratic pol goes from 80% to 60%, then the Democrat has a problem -- most likely one that goes beyond unionized workers or Jews. Likewise, if the small-business-ownership vote for Republicans goes from 80% to 60%, then Republicans have a problem, one that may go beyond the specific vote. Erosion of the base is still one way to lose the next election.

Perhaps something can be changing in a constituency that once seemed natural. Maybe unionized workers are no longer the struggling "Norma Rae" and are now well-paid skilled workers who have developed some concern for a tax bite that they can rarely avoid. Maybe  the Republicans are better addressing dangers to Israel than the Democrats do at the time. On the other hand, small business may be seeing Republicans siding with Big Business to squeeze out competition from small business and Democrats less likely to do so. Go figure. Parties figure such out or must seek new constituencies.

Maybe Cuban-Americans are beginning to become less concerned with Communism as the younger ones have no personal link to the controversies about what to do with Fidel Castro. Remember: any Cuban-American who fled Cuba before 1964 is now at least 50. Maybe Cuban-Americans are beginning to assimilate into non-Cuban-American populations. Maybe the Cuban-American population in 2014 isn't as 'white' as the refugees of the early 1960s (Mariel boatlift).
   
56-37 looks solid enough, but if it is down from 75-22 or so, then the Republicans have a problem in Florida.   
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2014, 09:11:48 AM »

56-37 looks solid enough, but if it is down from 75-22 or so, then the Republicans have a problem in Florida.   

When was it 75-22?  Do you have a citation for this?  The exit polls don't usually break it down between "Cuban" and "other Hispanic".
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2014, 12:27:01 PM »

56-37 looks solid enough, but if it is down from 75-22 or so, then the Republicans have a problem in Florida.   

When was it 75-22?  Do you have a citation for this?  The exit polls don't usually break it down between "Cuban" and "other Hispanic".


Probably until about 1990.
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henster
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2014, 12:07:30 AM »

Clinton is actually doing a lot worse among Cubans than Obama (he lost them 52-48) so she's doing about 11 points worse than Obama did with them. For some reason SUSA always has black support weak for Dems when its always 90+ in the end.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2014, 12:38:01 AM »

Clinton is actually doing a lot worse among Cubans than Obama (he lost them 52-48) so she's doing about 11 points worse than Obama did with them. For some reason SUSA always has black support weak for Dems when its always 90+ in the end.

Which is interesting, since Obama said he would meet with any international leader, even the Castro brothers (the Cuban ones I mean Tongue), something Hillary thought was a naive position to take.
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Devils30
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2014, 02:31:21 PM »

Polling the Cubans was a nightmare in 2012, the polls have vastly underestimated Dems with Hispanics nationally too.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2014, 02:48:16 PM »


What!? How long have you been sitting on this information?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2014, 08:48:04 AM »

56-37 looks solid enough, but if it is down from 75-22 or so, then the Republicans have a problem in Florida.   

When was it 75-22?  Do you have a citation for this?  The exit polls don't usually break it down between "Cuban" and "other Hispanic".


Probably until about 1990.

But what is your source for saying that it was 75-22?  I understand that it's a Republican demographic, but how do you know what the margin was in the 1970s or 1980s?
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« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2014, 01:04:28 PM »

This link, which is fairly comprehensive in discussing specific elections, says Democratic presidential candidates "traditionally received only 13 percent to 15 percent of the Florida Cuban vote." That changes beginning with Clinton in 1992 (22%) and especially '96 (35%).

Hillary is actually positioned to Obama's left on Cuba - her book says she privately urged an end to the trade embargo when she was SoS. No idea if that's felt in these numbers.
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