Rank the top five most likely people to be elected POTUS in November 2016

[Mister Mets]

1) Hillary Clinton
She is more likely to win her nomination than any Republican is to win theirs (or that all the other Democrats put together are to win the party's nomination.)

I'm not even sure there's anyone else with a ten percent chance of being the Democratic nominee in 2016.

2) Rand Paul
Top-tier Republican almost certain to run. Has had a good year.
Likely to do well in early primaries.

3) Paul Ryan
He's been on a national ticket. The party would like to see a young smart guy get nominated. He's from a state next to Iowa. I'd rate him above Rand Paul if I was certain he was running.

4) Chris Christie
Tremendous political talents. Relatively likely to run. Tainted by Bridgegate, but no other shoes have dropped there.

5) Marco Rubio
My hunch is that he's more likely to run than Jeb. And Republicans like the idea of nominating a young Hispanic man with conventional conservative views.

[henster]

Paul is too conservative to survive a GE his voting record will haunt him ads I doubt he even survives the primary anyways.

[cbannon5]

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Jeb Bush

3. Chris Christie

4. Joe Biden

5. Marco Rubio

[progressive85]

1. Hillary Rodham Clinton
2. Jeb Bush
3. Mitt Romney
4. Rick Perry
5. Chris Christie

[User157088589849]

1 Hillary Clinton
2 Jeb Bush
3 Rand Paul
4 Chris Christie
5 Rick Santorum

If Hillary doesn't win the nomination then we have a republican president.

[GaussLaw]

Why do people put Jeb at #2?  His last name would destroy him in a general.  I would argue just about everyone, maybe even Ted Cruz(probably not though), would be more electable than him. 

[User157088589849]

Why do people put Jeb at #2?  His last name would destroy him in a general.  I would argue just about everyone, maybe even Ted Cruz(probably not though), would be more electable than him. 

He talks sense
He would carry the state of Florida
He would bring money
He would unite the party
He would make them electable.

[Lief 🗽]

Jeb Bush is never going to win a Republican primary. He supports immigration reform and Common Core.

[Mister Mets]

Why do people put Jeb at #2?  His last name would destroy him in a general.  I would argue just about everyone, maybe even Ted Cruz(probably not though), would be more electable than him. 

George W Bush has become more popular as a former President.

He's not the anchor he was in 2008.

[© tweed]

Why do people put Jeb at #2?  His last name would destroy him in a general.  I would argue just about everyone, maybe even Ted Cruz(probably not though), would be more electable than him. 

George W Bush has become more popular as a former President.

that happens with every ex-president.  even Nixon.

[Badger]

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Jeb Bush

3. Chris Christie

4. Joe Biden

5. Marco Rubio

[Mr. Morden]

Paul seems to be the most popular non-Clinton choice on people's lists here.  I think you guys are overestimating him.  Even if he wins the GOP nomination, his nomination could very well tear the party apart, as a substantial fraction of GOP elites are allergic to his positions on foreign policy and civil liberties.  The ensuing firestorm could torpedo his (perhaps not terribly strong to begin with) GE chances.

I also think people here tend to underestimate Rubio.  I'll have another thread on this at some point, but one thing that shouldn't be underestimated is the importance of really really wanting to be president.  Many candidates aren't that desperate for it.  They run to sell books, or they think there's an opening, and they can slide into the right niche without doing the hard work.  Romney *really* wanted the nomination in 2012, and was willing to do or say whatever was necessary to get it.  His challengers, like Perry, Gingrich, Paul, etc., didn't seem so desperate to get it.  Likewise, in 2008, McCain and Romney wanted the nomination the most, and they finished 1 and 2 in the primaries.

I'm not exactly sure yet who wants it most in 2016, but Rubio would be high up on the list, so I'm still rating him relatively highly in this very wide open field.  However, if Bush were to run, Rubio will probably have to wait until 2020 to launch a bid of his own.  But I'm not that high on Bush's chances of doing so, at the moment.

So my own list, as of now, would be:

1) Clinton
2) Christie
3) Rubio
4) Walker
5) Bush

[Vega]

1. Chris Christie

2. Hillary Clinton

3. Rand Paul

4. Brian Schweitzer

5. Mitt Romney

[5280]

Jeb Bush won't make nomination. He's a RINO, neocon, and warmonger just like Bush and Obama.

[Mr. Smith]

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Rand Paul
3. Chris Christie
4. Some dark horse candidate
5. Another dark horse candidate

[IceSpear]

1) Hillary
2) Walker
3) Paul
4) Bush
5) Christie

Still this.

[Ljube]

I think similar. I'm just going to change the order of candidates slightly:

1. Hillary
2. Walker
3. Bush
4. Christie
5. Paul

[pbrower2a]

1. Scott Walker. Most reliable puppet of the Koch syndicate.  First President elected in a rigged election. Most reliable puppet of the Koch syndicate.

2. Hillary Clinton. If I did not recognize Americans for Prosperity (for only 1% and $crew the rest badly)

3. Jeb Bush

4. Joe Biden (in case something goes wrong with President Obama)

5. Amy Klobuchar (in case something goes wrong with the health of Hillary Clinton.

A warning about #1: the next President will win practically uncontested.

[Consciously Unconscious]

1. Clinton
2. Walker
3. Bush
4. Clinton
5. Generic Democrat

[SPC]

1. Clinton (I find this much less likely than anybody else on this board, although given the cluster**** that will be the 2016 Republican primaries, she takes the top spot both due to the certainty of her being the Democratic nominee and the possibility that the GOP will once again find a way to lose)

2. Christie (Like McCain, I think rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. I previously thought his bully personality would get in the way of either winning the primary or the general election, but now I believe that that abrasiveness will actually work to his advantage with both electorates.)

3. Paul (He's doing the work needed to appeal to a general election audience, and could benefit from a split in the field between palatable alternatives. Remember that his father nearly won Iowa and New Hampshire; imagine how the 2012 race could have gone if Ron Paul had been marginally more palatable to Republican primary voters. Of course, this relies on a narrow set of circumstances; if either the far right or the center of the party manages to coalesce behind a single candidate before the caucus, then Paul's window of opportunity closes.)

4. Cruz (With the rise of several palatable alternatives, Cruz might be competing only with Carson and Perry for the far right's backing, and thus like Paul could benefit from a narrow set of circumstances where the establishment vote is split between several candidates. The best scenario for this is if Paul either wins New Hampshire and the establishment decides to back a weaker general election candidate in exchange for retaining Republican orthodoxy on foreign policy and civil liberties, or if New Hampshire is close enough between two establishment candidates that neither of them can decisively win over that segment of the electorate. As for the general, Cruz is no idiot, and would probably pivot enough to the center once the nomination is wrapped up to prove much more competitive than he is currently. The shutdown will have occurred eons ago by the time 2016 rolls along.)

5. Walker (if he can emerge as a compromise between the two predominant factions before the primaries start, he stands a good chance of winning the nomination. He has gone three election cycles without making any career-ending gaffes, and does not seem like one who could easily be pigeonholed as plutocratic or racist, so would probably be sufficiently viable in a general election.)

[Bull Moose Base]

After Hillary, I still think the next 5 or more Republicans are about equal in likelihood to get elected president. I'd have to factor in chance of running and leave off Romney, Pence who still seem unlikely to run, Bush, Kasich, Rubio who still seem close to 50/50, Huckabee who seems likely but with info too hard to trust. Guess until the field clears up, I'd go...

2. Cruz
3. Walker
4. Paul
5. Christie

[dmmidmi]

1. Hildog
2. Marco Rubio
3. Tony Soprano
4. Rand Paul
5. Scott Walker (I guess)

[ShadowRocket]

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Chris Christie
3. Scott Walker
4. Jeb Bush
5. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination in the scenario that Hillary doesn't run

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

1. Rob Portman
2. Scott Walker
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Jeb Bush
5. Joe Biden (ascending to the Presidency due to some horrible event)

Obviously if by some miracle Hillary doesn't run then all bets are off.

[SWE]

Bush, Walker, Ryan, Paul, Kasich, in no particular order