Rank the top five most likely people to be elected POTUS in November 2016
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  Rank the top five most likely people to be elected POTUS in November 2016
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Author Topic: Rank the top five most likely people to be elected POTUS in November 2016  (Read 10760 times)
porky88
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« Reply #50 on: November 07, 2014, 04:53:07 PM »

1. Hillary Clinton -- I think she gets enough of the Obama coalition to turnout that she can win the presidency with 40 or even 39 percent of the white vote. Under that scenario, I imagine something like 52 percent of the popular vote and 323 electoral votes. In many ways, she went from being overrated (she won’t win 350-plus electoral votes) to being underrated after the Midterm. The 2016 electorate is going to be dramatically different than 2014, and she’s the biggest benefactor from it.

2. Scott Walker -- Every block of the Republican Party has something good to say about Walker. The Establishment likes him because he has won three times in a blue state. Conservatives like him because he has a conservative record. His personality isn't controversial as Chris Christie's is, and his last name won’t drag him down like Bush‘s could. I think he's the Republican frontrunner. By default, that makes him the No. 2 most likely elected POTUS in 2016.

3. Chris Christie -- I actually think the Republican fight is going to be between Christie and Walker, not Rand Paul/Ted Cruz up against the establishment. Christie is a boom or bust candidate.  He ran a great 2013 re-election campaign. He ran a great 2014 campaign as the head of the RGA. His temperament could sink him, though.

4. Jeb Bush -- He’ll have all the establishment money at his back, but I think he faces an uphill climb nonetheless. In the primary, he needs to convince conservatives that he is one of them. In the general, he needs to convince the electorate he is more like his father than his brother. He can make this climb, especially if the political environment turns on the democrats as it did on the republicans in 2008. Nevertheless, I think a Bush vs. Clinton matchup is a referendum on the last names. That bodes well for Clinton, in my opinion.

5. Rand Paul -- Somehow, he manages to win the nomination by bringing together his father’s libertarian coalition, conservatives, and moderate Republicans that want a more dovish foreign policy. A recession hits, and the environment is toxic for any democrat. Paul does better than Romney did among whites, and he manages to win at least 45 percent of voters under 30. Honestly, I think he’s a distant fifth on the list, but the topic asked for five.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #51 on: November 07, 2014, 06:15:28 PM »

Hillary Clinton wins if the 2016 election is honest. But if it is compromised, she will have to get enough popular votes to win at least 320 electoral votes cleanly. Then perhaps Florida and Wisconsin add frosting to the cake.

I expect the Republicans to cheat. 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #52 on: November 07, 2014, 07:32:42 PM »

1. Scott Walker. Most reliable puppet of the Koch syndicate.  First President elected in a rigged election. Most reliable puppet of the Koch syndicate.

2. Hillary Clinton. If I did not recognize Americans for Prosperity (for only 1% and $crew the rest badly)

3. Jeb Bush

4. Joe Biden (in case something goes wrong with President Obama)

5. Amy Klobuchar (in case something goes wrong with the health of Hillary Clinton.

A warning about #1: the next President will win practically uncontested.

You've had quite the turnaround in just the past week.  Not long ago it was "blue firewall", "age wave", and:


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  


Now you post about democracy being "dead", and Scott Walker being more likely to be elected president than Hillary Clinton?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #53 on: November 07, 2014, 07:33:00 PM »

1. Rob Portman
2. Scott Walker
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Jeb Bush
5. Joe Biden (ascending to the Presidency due to some horrible event)

Obviously if by some miracle Hillary doesn't run then all bets are off.

What? You think Rob Portman, a guy who very well may not even run and would likely lose the primary if he did, is more likely to be elected president than the nearly certain Democratic nominee?
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #54 on: November 07, 2014, 08:20:31 PM »


lol
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #55 on: November 07, 2014, 11:46:16 PM »

1. Rob Portman
2. Scott Walker
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Jeb Bush
5. Joe Biden (ascending to the Presidency due to some horrible event)

Obviously if by some miracle Hillary doesn't run then all bets are off.

What? You think Rob Portman, a guy who very well may not even run and would likely lose the primary if he did, is more likely to be elected president than the nearly certain Democratic nominee?

Yes and Portman may very well run, he's just been smart enough not to paint a giant target on his back.  I actually think he'll probably be the Republican nominee if he runs (and I'd be beyond shocked if Hillary beat him).
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Fritz
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« Reply #56 on: November 08, 2014, 12:48:04 AM »

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Jeb Bush
3. Scott Walker
4. Rand Paul
5. Joe Biden
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #57 on: November 11, 2014, 08:59:36 AM »

1. Scott Walker. Most reliable puppet of the Koch syndicate.  First President elected in a rigged election. Most reliable puppet of the Koch syndicate.

2. Hillary Clinton. If I did not recognize Americans for Prosperity (for only 1% and $crew the rest badly)

3. Jeb Bush

4. Joe Biden (in case something goes wrong with President Obama)

5. Amy Klobuchar (in case something goes wrong with the health of Hillary Clinton.

A warning about #1: the next President will win practically uncontested.

You've had quite the turnaround in just the past week.  Not long ago it was "blue firewall", "age wave", and:


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  


Now you post about democracy being "dead", and Scott Walker being more likely to be elected president than Hillary Clinton?


Everything changed. The Koch brothers are the real power in America because they provide the Orwellian propaganda that decides elections. Newspeak kills democracy.

Scott Walker is the perfect stooge that the Koch brothers could have for President. That may matter more than anything else. I wish that I could have more optimism, but when politics are as ugly as they are in America today, optimism is for starry-eyed idealists.

If I had children I would prepare them to emigrate. There may be no room for conscience, empathy, or critical thought in America -- just blind obedience to the most rapacious plutocrats who ever lived.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #58 on: November 11, 2014, 11:07:26 AM »

Right now I think:

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Mitt Romney
3. Rand Paul
4. Jeb Bush
5. Elizabeth Warren

(6. Chris Christie)
(7. Brian Sandoval)
(8. Kirsten Gillibrand)
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bronz4141
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« Reply #59 on: August 03, 2015, 07:17:36 PM »

Right now:
1. Hillary Clinton
2. Jeb Bush
3. Donald Trump (if America wants to do, so be it)
4. Joe Biden
5. Marco Rubio
(6. Bernie Sanders)
(7. John Kasich)
(8. Martin O'Malley)
(9. Scott Walker)
(10. Mitt Romney-you never know, brokered convention?)
Honorable mentions: Paul Ryan, John Thune (brokered convention?), Mike Huckabee (Values still matter in this country in some areas)
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #60 on: August 03, 2015, 08:04:50 PM »

1. Clinton (I think she loses, but no one knows who the GOP nominates)
2. Walker
3. Bush
4. Rubio
5. Trump

Honorable Mention: Romney (broken convention)
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Crumpets
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« Reply #61 on: August 03, 2015, 08:05:20 PM »

1. Clinton
2. Bush
3. Kasich
4. Sanders
5. Walker
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EliteLX
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« Reply #62 on: August 03, 2015, 09:03:04 PM »

1) Hillary Clinton
2) Rand Paul
3) Jeb Bush
4) Marco Rubio

This is not to say who WILL be elected, just who has the best chance. Hillary vs A Sharp R Ticket is like a 55% to 45% chance for a GOP win, with Hillary up. No GOP ticket will have the advantage, they will have to work for it to win, still very very possible.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #63 on: August 03, 2015, 09:27:10 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2015, 09:30:01 PM by bronz4141 »

Right now:
1. Hillary Clinton
2. Jeb Bush
3. Donald Trump (if America wants to do, so be it)
4. Joe Biden
5. Marco Rubio
(6. Bernie Sanders)
(7. John Kasich)
(8. Martin O'Malley)
(9. Scott Walker)
(10. Mitt Romney-you never know, brokered convention?)
Honorable mentions: Paul Ryan, John Thune (brokered convention?), Rand Paul (Underestimate Libertarian voters at your peril), Mike Huckabee (Values still matter in this country in some areas)
I forgot to include Rand Paul, but I would not underestimate him. Libertarian voters are key in this country.
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MisSkeptic
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« Reply #64 on: August 03, 2015, 09:29:05 PM »

Both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden for the Democratic party

And Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Rand Paul for the Republican party.

Hillary will always be on top because of her popularity at this time. But the order is random.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #65 on: August 03, 2015, 09:36:45 PM »

1. Hillary Clinton
2. John Kasich
3. Scott Walker
4. Marco Rubio
5. Bernie Sanders
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RFayette
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« Reply #66 on: August 03, 2015, 09:47:37 PM »

1. Hillary Clinton
2. John Kasich
3. Scott Walker
4. Marco Rubio
5. Bernie Sanders
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SWE
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« Reply #67 on: August 03, 2015, 09:49:54 PM »

1. Clinton
2. Bush
3. Rubio
4. Walker
5. Sanders
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dudeabides
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« Reply #68 on: August 03, 2015, 09:50:59 PM »

1. Jeb Bush
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Kasich
4. Joe Biden
5. Scott Walker
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #69 on: August 04, 2015, 12:08:27 AM »

1. Paul
2. Cruz
3. Trump/Walker
4. Hilldawg
5. Jeb
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #70 on: August 04, 2015, 12:09:33 AM »


Quick question: do you follow American politics?
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #71 on: August 04, 2015, 02:11:47 AM »

The wrongests!


Also, I don't think Hillary is going to run, though if she does, she of course keeps the strongest Democrat alternatives out of the race.

Taking all that into account:
1. Rand Paul



Anybody have a different opinion after the midterms?

1. Scott Walker
2. Ted Cruz
3. Hillary Clinton

1. Rob Portman
2. Scott Walker
3. Hillary Clinton
Obviously if by some miracle Hillary doesn't run then all bets are off.

Bush, Walker, Ryan, Paul, Kasich, in no particular order



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Leinad
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« Reply #72 on: August 04, 2015, 05:21:20 AM »

Very likely to be one of these three:
1. Hillary Clinton (the DNC's chosen one, by far the Democratic favorite unlike any Republican.)
2. Scott Walker (conservative enough to maybe get the base behind him, but not too much to alienate the establishment like Cruz probably would.)
3. Marco Rubio (the most electable Republican in the race for the general, I think (Rand's up there, too) but he'll need to beat both Jeb and Walker to win the nomination.)

Not impossible:
4. Joe Biden (if he runs, he has the best shot at beating Hillary, and I think he has a better chance in the general election to win than she does.)
5. Jeb Bush (I see little reason to expect he can win, but he's the favorite to get the nomination because the idiotic establishment has anointed him as the winner.)
6. Ted Cruz (conservatives love him. He's the mirror image of Bernie, except the Republican establishment will be easier to beat than Hillary.)
7. Bernie Sanders (like Cruz, the grassroots base loves him. But he'll have a hard time beating Hillary.)

Everyone else is either ideologically impossible (I really hate to say this, but Rand won't be able to get enough support to win the nomination--libertarians just aren't a big enough force in the Republican party; also, Trump has literally no chance to win, but he might have a say in who does; Jim Webb can't win a majority of delegates in the 2016 Democratic party; etc.) or they have the ideology to both get a majority of their party's delegates and get more votes than the other party in enough states to get 270 electoral votes--but their alternatives are too strong to topple (Kasich and Christie won't beat Jeb, O'Malley won't beat Hillary, Jindal won't beat Cruz and Walker, etc.).
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #73 on: August 04, 2015, 05:40:52 AM »


Quick question: do you follow American politics?

He had Paul and Cain finishing in the top two in Iowa last time IIRC.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #74 on: August 04, 2015, 10:34:26 AM »

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Jeb Bush
3. Rand Paul
4. Scott Walker
5. Bernie Sanders
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