What year will a Democrat win the Texas governorship?

[Suburbia]

If Democrat Wendy Davis loses in November 2014, which looks likely, which year do you see a Democrat finally winning the Lone Star State?

[Free Bird]

If Democrat Wendy Davis loses in November 2014, which looks likely, which year do you see a Democrat finally winning the Lone Star State?

When

[Kushahontas]

2022

[SWE]

2022 will be a Democratic wave because of the unpopularity of President Mike Pence, so I'm going to say that.

[King]

It'll be awhile since midterm minority turnout is so low. They'll probably get Democratic Senators first, during Presidential elections

[IceSpear]

A very long time. I put 2030 as a wild guess.

[LeBron]

It will take a long time since Democrats are overestimating just how blue Texas really is now + lower turnout in midterms, but my best guess right now is 2030.

When Abbott does retire from the Governorship (likely between 2022-2030), that would give Dan Patrick, the crazy Tea Party guy to Dewhurst's right, the golden opportunity to go for the GOP nomination. If he does run and win the primary, that's a good chance to win the Governor seat in itself as long as Democrats ran a strong rising star like Rafael Anchia or one of the Castro's.

[Dixie Reborn]

Depends on the quality of the candidate(s) and the national scene during that year.

[Vega]

A very long time. I put 2030 as a wild guess.

[Badger]

It'll be awhile since midterm minority turnout is so low. They'll probably get Democratic Senators first, during Presidential elections

Nah, federal races will remain too nationalized/polarized for years to come.

IF Democrats seriously put money into state voter registration and GOTV like they've been talking about, they MIGHT have a shot in 2022 depending largely on who the candidates are.

2030 is probably a more likely guess.

[windjammer]

Never.

The Republicans will finally improve their performance in the Latino community, so Texas sgould stay republican.

[IceSpear]

Never.

The Republicans will finally improve their performance in the Latino community, so Texas sgould stay republican.

Never? That's ridiculous. Democrats have won Wyoming and Republicans have won Vermont as recently as 2006.

[windjammer]

Never.

The Republicans will finally improve their performance in the Latino community, so Texas sgould stay republican.

Never? That's ridiculous. Democrats have won Wyoming and Republicans have won Vermont as recently as 2006.

In a long long time if you prefer!

[IceSpear]

Never.

The Republicans will finally improve their performance in the Latino community, so Texas sgould stay republican.

Never? That's ridiculous. Democrats have won Wyoming and Republicans have won Vermont as recently as 2006.

In a long long time if you prefer!

Yes, that's a lot better.

[windjammer]

Never.

The Republicans will finally improve their performance in the Latino community, so Texas sgould stay republican.

Never? That's ridiculous. Democrats have won Wyoming and Republicans have won Vermont as recently as 2006.

In a long long time if you prefer!

Yes, that's a lot better.

But seriously, I was more thinking that when I said "never" .

[Maxwell]

Greg Abbott, after three terms, retires, and a Democrat wins that election in 2026.

[ElectionsGuy]

Beyond 2026

[badgate]

It'll be awhile since midterm minority turnout is so low. They'll probably get Democratic Senators first, during Presidential elections

Unfortunately Ted Cruz's next presidential reelection is not until 2024.

[Brittain33]

Biggest factor is whether Democrats can put up remotely viable candidates. Not to win in their own right, but to be there in case a Mourdock/Akin situation happens and the seat falls in their lap. No idea. In theory that could have happened this year, but it won't.

[MATTROSE94]

I guess in either 2030 or 2034.

[TDAS04]

2022 is possible, but I don't think it will be before 2030. 

[Person Man]

Around the time they have a working fusion reactor or put boots on Mars.

[NHLiberal]

Greg Abbott, after three terms, retires, and a Democrat wins that election in 2026.

While we can't predict into the future because we have no idea what will happen with the parties, the candidates, demographics, etc, I tend to agree with this, especially if Patrick is the Republican nominee whenever Abbott retires.

[pikachu]

In normal conditions, probably not until the late 2020s, if ever. But if there's a really unpopular incumbent (Quinn, Corbett, Brownback level) and the Texas Democrats put up a good challenger, then I think there's a pretty good shot. IIRC, White actually came pretty close to Perry in polls during 2010, but it was too Republican a year to actually have a chance at winning.

[badgate]

Greg Abbott, after three terms, retires, and a Democrat wins that election in 2026.

While we can't predict into the future because we have no idea what will happen with the parties, the candidates, demographics, etc, I tend to agree with this, especially if Patrick is the Republican nominee whenever Abbott retires.

Patrick will be 76 in 2026. More likely he challenges Abbott in '18 or '22.