Who is more likely to win?

[IceSpear]

Davis, though obviously neither will.

[SWE]

corbett because incumbent

[Free Bird]

corbett because incumbent

muh incumbency

[Vega]

corbett because incumbent

[The Other Castro]

corbett because incumbent

muh incumbency

[ElectionsGuy]

Corbett

[NHLiberal]

The one who is down by an RCP average of 12 points rather than an RCP average of 18 points

[Maxwell]

Davis

[Talleyrand]

Not sure what argument can be made for Davis's chances being superior to Corbett's. Corbett is an unpopular incumbent in a state where his party does very well in statewide elections- he's going to lose, but he could conceivably turn it around.

Davis is an unpopular generic liberal Democrat running in a state totally inhospitable to her party against what are likely heavy Republican headwinds.

I'd guess that Corbett loses in the high single digits, while Davis goes down by mid to high double digits.

[IceSpear]

Not sure what argument can be made for Davis's chances being superior to Corbett's. Corbett is an unpopular incumbent in a state where his party does very well in statewide elections- he's going to lose, but he could conceivably turn it around.

Davis is an unpopular generic liberal Democrat running in a state totally inhospitable to her party against what are likely heavy Republican headwinds.

I'd guess that Corbett loses in the high single digits, while Davis goes down by mid to high double digits.

This would be the argument.

The one who is down by an RCP average of 12 points rather than an RCP average of 18 points

[Talleyrand]

That's a laughably simplistic argument. It's far easier for a Republican to make up an eighteen point deficit in a state like Pennsylvania (although I think Corbett probably won't make up more than about ten points) than for a Democrat to make up a twelve point deficit in a state like Texas (which has consistently seen candidates, many polling better than Davis is at this point, lose by that margin or higher come election day).

[IceSpear]

That's a laughably simplistic argument. It's far easier for a Republican to make up an eighteen point deficit in a state like Pennsylvania (although I think Corbett probably won't make up more than about ten points) than for a Democrat to make up a twelve point deficit in a state like Texas (which has consistently seen candidates, many polling better than Davis is at this point, lose by that margin or higher come election day).

Well, there's also the fact that Corbett's approval is at 35-55 and Wolf's favorables are at 46-14. In Texas, the most recent poll I can find has Davis at 34-41 and Abbott at 45-25.

[KCDem]

Both are equally likely to win: they have no prayer unless their opponent majorly implodes and they improve their own performance significantly.

[Suburbia]

Maybe Corbett, but I don't think he can win.

[IceSpear]

That's a laughably simplistic argument. It's far easier for a Republican to make up an eighteen point deficit in a state like Pennsylvania (although I think Corbett probably won't make up more than about ten points) than for a Democrat to make up a twelve point deficit in a state like Texas (which has consistently seen candidates, many polling better than Davis is at this point, lose by that margin or higher come election day).

What about 25 points?