FiveThirtyEight: 6 Most Likely Tipping Point Races

[JRP1994]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/six-consistently-close-races-will-probably-decide-control-of-the-senate/

Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Iowa
Louisiana
North Carolina

[Miles]

Not to undercut Enten, but I think any of us here could have told ya'll that.

[SWE]

Yeah, nothing we didn't already know

[Vosem]

Yeah

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not to undercut Enten, but I think any of us here could have told ya'll that.

Yeah, seriously, 538 has been beyond useless throughout this election cycle so far.

[Free Bird]

538's sterile, soulless approach to politics is really kind of off putting. It's like they don't really understand its "soul," yet treat it like this exact science. It's like a bunch of high schoolers writing a report about a topic, but not really having any passion for it but thinking they're experts.

[Free Bird]

And "a state like Colorado"? The hell is that supposed to mean? Since when was it a solid blue state?

[Miles]

^ It has a Democratic PVI. I don't think the implication was that it's solidly blue.

[Free Bird]

^ It has a Democratic PVI. I don't think the implication was that it's solidly blue.

Could have said that in the article. And the index is due to loony Republicans. Just looking at the last couple years there proves the PVI concept is crap

[Miles]

^ Er, ok. I don't consider McCain and Romney particularly 'loony' by Republican standards, but ok.

His point is that if Republicans are ousting an incumbent in a Democratic-tilting state, they've probably won the Senate. I agree.

[Vega]

Could have said that in the article. And the index is due to loony Republicans. Just looking at the last couple years there proves the PVI concept is crap

PVI might not be perfect, rarely things like it are, but it does give a good indication on where the state stands.

[Badger]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/six-consistently-close-races-will-probably-decide-control-of-the-senate/

Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Iowa
Louisiana
North Carolina

I predict (for now) CO & IA will stay Democratic, and AR will flip. LA will also likely flip if the Senate hangs in the balance for a runoff (but may still flip regardless). The others......

[Person Man]

^ It has a Democratic PVI. I don't think the implication was that it's solidly blue.

Could have said that in the article. And the index is due to loony Republicans. Just looking at the last couple years there proves the PVI concept is crap

and they keep nominating silly people. ^^

[GaussLaw]

^ It has a Democratic PVI. I don't think the implication was that it's solidly blue.

Could have said that in the article. And the index is due to loony Republicans. Just looking at the last couple years there proves the PVI concept is crap

I would say the same thing about Missouri and secular, pro-abortion Democrats, but the reality is that PVI is just a reflection of election results.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Harry Enten is awful at analysis. I have no idea why Silver hired him.

[TDAS04]

Makes sense. 

[Free Bird]

Harry Enten is awful at analysis. I have no idea why Silver hired him.

I refer you to my "soulless" comment

[backtored]

^ It has a Democratic PVI. I don't think the implication was that it's solidly blue.

Could have said that in the article. And the index is due to loony Republicans. Just looking at the last couple years there proves the PVI concept is crap

and they keep nominating silly people. ^^

Well, not really.  Gardner and Beauprez were considered the two most ideal statewide candidates the GOP has in Colorado, unless Bill Owens or John Elway were to run.  You might think they're not particularly good candidates, but the consensus is that the GOP did a phenomenal job recruiting in Colorado.

[backtored]

Could have said that in the article. And the index is due to loony Republicans. Just looking at the last couple years there proves the PVI concept is crap

PVI might not be perfect, rarely things like it are, but it does give a good indication on where the state stands.

I'm not sure about that.  PVIs don't stump on the campaign trail. They don't pick up endorsements.  They don't raise money.  They don't gaffe and charm voters.

Real candidates do that, and it is surely why Pat Toomey and Ron Johnson won in blue states in 2010 and why Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly won in red states in 2012. 

Interestingly, not a ton of people thought that any of those races would turn out that way precisely because they were stumbling over PVI numbers.

I suspect that Iowa and Colorado are more likely to flip this year than Alaska and North Carolina, and that is especially because of candidates and local dynamics that the PVI won't necessarily account for.

[backtored]

^ It has a Democratic PVI. I don't think the implication was that it's solidly blue.

Could have said that in the article. And the index is due to loony Republicans. Just looking at the last couple years there proves the PVI concept is crap

and they keep nominating silly people. ^^

Well, not really.  Gardner and Beauprez were considered the two fairly favorable statewide candidates the GOP has in Colorado, unless Bill Owens or John Elway were to run.  You might think they're not particularly good candidates, but the consensus is that the GOP did a phenomenal job recruiting in Colorado.

[Person Man]

^ It has a Democratic PVI. I don't think the implication was that it's solidly blue.

Could have said that in the article. And the index is due to loony Republicans. Just looking at the last couple years there proves the PVI concept is crap

and they keep nominating silly people. ^^

Well, not really.  Gardner and Beauprez were considered the two fairly favorable statewide candidates the GOP has in Colorado, unless Bill Owens or John Elway were to run.  You might think they're not particularly good candidates, but the consensus is that the GOP did a phenomenal job recruiting in Colorado.

Which doesn't say that much. They will win iff (if and only if )they campaign very well or Udall and Hick campaign badly. I'm sure the GOP will do very well with cabinet positions.

[Senator Cris]

Fortunately they will release their real model before September (words of Enten).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fortunately they will release their real model before September (words of Enten).

Inch'Allah.

[dmmidmi]

538's sterile, soulless approach to politics is really kind of off putting. It's like they don't really understand its "soul," yet treat it like this exact science. It's like a bunch of high schoolers writing a report about a topic, but not really having any passion for it but thinking they're experts.

They've made an effort to carve out a niche in projecting election winners/losers by utilizing algorithms instead of gut-feeling--which has paid dividends through more accurate projections than those done by "experts" like George Will, Paul Begala, Peggy Noonan, and Alex Castellanos.

Their model is predicated upon removing "feeling" and "soul" from the process, because those create biases.

[ElectionsGuy]

As expected. I think the order of likeliness of each being the tipping point is this:

1. Alaska
2. North Carolina
3. Louisiana
4. Iowa
5. Arkansas
6. Colorado