Could have said that in the article. And the index is due to loony Republicans. Just looking at the last couple years there proves the PVI concept is crap
PVI might not be perfect, rarely things like it are, but it does give a good indication on where the state stands.
I'm not sure about that. PVIs don't stump on the campaign trail. They don't pick up endorsements. They don't raise money. They don't gaffe and charm voters.
Real candidates do that, and it is surely why Pat Toomey and Ron Johnson won in blue states in 2010 and why Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly won in red states in 2012.
Interestingly, not a ton of people thought that any of those races would turn out that way precisely because they were stumbling over PVI numbers.
I suspect that Iowa and Colorado are more likely to flip this year than Alaska and North Carolina, and that is especially because of candidates and local dynamics that the PVI won't necessarily account for.
