AR-04: OnMessage (R): Westerman in the driver's seat

[Miles]

Article.

Westerman (R)- 47%
Witt (D)- 29%
Hamilton (L)- 7%
Undecided- 18%

Cotton leads 49/39 and Hutchinson 46/43 in CD4.

[Miles]

Granted, this is an internal, but it about lines up with TalkBusiness. I thought Witt would be a much better candidate. Westerman was considered the stronger Republican, but still.

[Miles]

^ Cotton should be clearly ahead if he were putting out a 10-point lead in CD4. The TalkBusiness poll only had Cotton +5 in CD4 but up 2 statewide.

If you adjust the TalkBusiness poll for a 49/39 Cotton lead in CD4 (easy because they weighted all CDs equal) Cotton would be up 45-41.5 (outside the MoE).

[Miles]

^ Keep in mind both Ross and Cotton are from this district; you'd expect to see the most Cotton/Ross voters here.

Ross hasn't represented the newer (and more solidly R) parts of CD4, which account for about 20% of the district. I'd say with the voters that know him best (in the old CD4), Ross is probably breaking even or might be ahead.