Election Day: June 9, 1992

[Thomas D]

Polling for the 1992 Presidential Election in June of 1992 looked something like this:

Perot       36%
Bush        32%
Clinton     26%

If Americans had gone to the polls with these being the numbers, What do you think the election map would have looked like?

[SPC]

You probably could get a taste of that by looking through the Usenet archives of that period.  The groups talk.politics.misc, alt.politics.usa, us.politics, and alt.politics.perot probably are good places to start.

Yeah, not quite the same as following it in real time though.  I did just find this repost on Usenet of an electoral college analysis from June 1992, which claimed Clinton only leading outside the margin of error in only Arkansas and DC:

link

Amazing that Clinton led the polls nationally just one month later.  In any case, the electoral map as described there would have been pretty crazy, with Perot holding a plurality of electoral votes, and battling to reach 270.

Interesting East-West phenomenon going on there.

Combining that source with the actual election results, I suspect the map could have ended up looking like this: