Will ACA be (at least mostly) the law of the land in ten years from now?

[Person Man]

Begin!

[7,052,770]

Of course.

Vermont and potentially some other states will have received a waiver for state innovation and moved on to a single-payer system, but the ACA will be the primary law governing health insurance in most states.

[Person Man]

Of course.

Vermont and potentially some other states will have received a waiver for state innovation and moved on to a single-payer system, but the ACA will be the primary law governing health insurance in most states.

So, you think that a half a dozen very liberal states would have moved beyond ACA by then, even if most states go back to a model based on either getting insurance through loans or salaried work?

[Vega]

Probably. I don't see the Republicans getting a super-majority in the Senate within the next 10 years

[Person Man]

Probably. I don't see the Republicans getting a super-majority in the Senate within the next 10 years

Could they defend through reconciliation?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Yes, but it will be heavily amended.

[Vega]

Probably. I don't see the Republicans getting a super-majority in the Senate within the next 10 years

Could they defend through reconciliation?

Perhaps, but I don't see that happening either.

[GaussLaw]

Yes, but it will be heavily amended.

Yeah, some states like Indiana will basically be operating ACA-free due to a litany of lawsuits.

[Modernity has failed us]

Yes.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Probably. I don't see the Republicans getting a super-majority in the Senate within the next 10 years

Could they defend through reconciliation?

Perhaps, but I don't see that happening either.

With Obama in office he'll probably only approve very small changes (workweek back to 40 hours, medical device tax repeal with very small cuts, etc.) if the GOP takes the Senate 2015-2017 for "muh bipartisanship", but if the GOP gains the White House in 2017 there will be some major overhauls. I give repeal only a very small chance, even if the Republicans control the WH/Senate/House trifecta unless they tread very, very carefully.

[Vosem]

The likeliest option -- that it will never be fully repealed but will slowly be amended into something that looks very little like the original bill -- was left out

[Person Man]

The likeliest option -- that it will never be fully repealed but will slowly be amended into something that looks very little like the original bill -- was left out

At a certain point, it becomes a defacto "repeal" or "replacement".

For example, this bill was supposed lower the uninsured rate to 4% but now looks like 7% because of medicaid expansion being nullified. If the bill was change so that the uninsured rate stayed above 10%, you could argue that the bill has been "repealed".

Given these definitions...