Cold War Reloaded: American Perspective

[OAM]

Prologue:  The 1948 US Presidential Election

November 4, 1948

DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.  The words stared the President in the face as a stark proclamation.

"Jesus.  They were so confident they printed it early, eh?"  Harry S. Truman muttered this as he turned to one of the few aids still in the building.  Most had gone elsewhere to get a few hours of sleep before the work of presenting a dignified concession began.

"I guess so.  Won't come back to bite them this time, but if they keep that up it will someday."  The aid put a hand to his forehead and shook a sad nod back and forth.  A lot of them had been  fairly hit hard by the news, but of course not as much as Truman himself.  "Not like the Tribune would ever be supportive of your campaign."

"Heh.  True... you know they're still predicting that I've won the popular vote!"  There was still a bit of fire in his voice, before he too sadly sighed.  "I just don't understand.  Well, I suppose on some level I do.  Politics, after all.  We were just doing so well until these past few months.  What went wrong?"  There was a long, uncomfortable pause.  The aid didn't really want to speak up, especially at a time like this.  Truman sighed again and continued in a more resigned tone.  At least the weight would be off his shoulders soon now.  "Eh, don't worry about telling me.  It's a question for the historians now.  But damn, projecting a majority, not just winning, but a MAJORITY of the popular vote, yet... this!"  Truman tossed the paper back onto the low sitting table and slouched back in his chair.

"It's the Soviets...  Those new trade agreements...  New York, New England... they're really not happy."  It was a good theory, and at least something for the aid to throw to Truman to latch onto.

"Maybe... just maybe....  well... it's still out of our hands.  If the public thinks I didn't do a good enough job dealing with Khrushchev, I'm sure they'll love how Dewey handles things!"  Smug sarcasm was always nice in defeat, but Truman could only hope for vindications.

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1948 US Presidential Election

Governor Thomas E. Dewey (R-NY)/Governor Earl Warren (R-CA) - 327 EV/44.2% PV
President Harry S. Truman (D-MO)/Senator Alben W. Barkley (D-KY) - 158 EV/49.7% PV
Senator Strom Thurmond (SR-SC)/Governor Fielding L. Wright (SR-MI) - 46 EV/ 5.9% PV

[OAM]

Hello everyone, just wanted to say something from the author's PoV for a second.  This is a TL I've been thinking about for awhile, but mostly from an international PoV.  I've decided it'd be easier for me, and easier to find an audience, if I made it a bit more US focused in it's telling.  Also the actual chapters will likely be a lot more history book style in content.  Also there's a few clues snuck into this post about what's been going on.  Chapter One will start the story proper with the PoD in 1945.

[Simfan34]

Looking forwards to it.

[OAM]

Chapter One:  1945 - The End of WWII

While historians have difficulty pinpointing exactly when the Cold War started, there is much less question as to when the Second World War ended.  There had been historical tensions between Western powers and the Soviet Union almost since before the latter even existed, if it were at all possible, so quantifying political and diplomatic conflict is neither easy nor entirely the best metric.  Indeed, there's a reason that the early portion of the Cold War is referred to as the second Red Scare.  With that being said, World War Two and the immediate aftermath can be seen as one of the peaks in the cycle of Soviet-Western relationships.

World War Two is frequently said to officially end on the 2nd of September, 1945, with the formal surrender of the Japanese on the battleship Missouri in Tokyo Bay.  In terms of shaping the post-war landscape, though, July 26th of the same year holds contention for the title, as the formal end of British Prime Minister Winston Churchill's term, the last of the famous "Big Three" still in power.  He was defeated in a landslide election and was replaced with Labour leader Clement Attlee.  American President Roosevelt had died in April from general complications worsened by the strain of war, and Joseph Stalin died exactly one month later in a freak accident, having been found to have choked to death while he had been eating a brief breakfast alone on May 12th before an important meeting.  As with much of Soviet political machinations of the time, there is a woeful lack of transparency as to how events actually unfolded, but in the years since there has been not one single shred of evidence uncovered to implicate any sort of plot against Stalin.

What is certain is that when the Potsdam Conference occurred in late July and early August to discuss further post-war plans, the Soviets were still in a highly disorganized state.  No solid force was ready to fill the vacuum left by the late dictator's demise.  The Soviet delegate reflected this lack of coordination by featuring a very diverse lineup.  Major players who attended included Marshal Zhukov, First Deputy Molotov, and a leading, upcoming politician named Nikita Khrushchev, who would eventually wind up in the role of mouthpiece for unified decision making.  He would later capitalize on this role to assume the role of First Secretary of the Communist Party in mid-spring of 1946, once the Soviet system had recovered to a point where selecting a new leader was viable.  All things equal, Khrushchev would  likely have not risen to such prominence, but all of the more powerful factions could not gain control on their own, and at such a critical juncture most level-headed individuals agreed that a suitable compromise candidate would be preferable to internal strife, or even a low-level civil war, especially given the unimaginable toll of the recent war.  Notably absent from the conference was Lavrentiy Beria, who is believed to have stayed in Moscow in an effort to solidify his own power base.  Whatever his efforts might be, they would come to an abortive end later in 1945.  He was found dead in November, likely, but unconfirmed, by poison.

As a result of this confusion within the Soviet Delegation, the entire Potsdam conference was in a minor state of disarray, and for a time in jeopardy of failing entirely.  President Truman's relative inexperience and the British leadership shuffle did not help matters.  After the first few days the situation improved, though, as the Soviets were able to adopt a "polite, but firm" approach.  In general they were able to maintain a relatively hard line, but remain diplomatic about affairs.  Several agenda items wound up with significant decisions being made in the end.

Germany would be divided into four spheres of influence and demilitarized, with a similar division of Austria.  Both nation's capitals would have a four way split as well.  All Nazi annexations would be reversed in full.  In addition major border changes would take place in regards to Poland.  The Soviet Union was unwilling to give up gains from 1939.  The Soviet delegation argued for, and won, compensation of Poland with German territory instead.  In return, the Soviets agreed to share a percentage of their war reparations from Germany with Poland, and to allow internal elections within Poland "with all due haste".  The Soviets were unwilling to just surrender their occupation of Poland, however, feeling they had some stake in the matter of Polish government both as a buffer state and as long due compensation from the war in the 20s.  The Soviets made it clear that they would not be going anywhere anytime soon, and held the Polish share of war reparations as collateral to maintain a degree of control as a condition of the arrangement.  The Soviet stance was that Poland should be happy to have Soviet "help", unlike many of the other Soviet-occupied countries that didn't have many legs to stand on at the negotiating table.  Still, at the time there was a lot of uncertainty going forward as to Poland's long-term status.

Also going forward were plans on how to reintegrate other areas of Europe and Asia that had either been occupied or liberated from various Axis powers.  This included the decision for the Soviet Union to enter the war against Japan, a decision originally made by Stalin and confirmed to be honored personally by Zhukov at the conference.  In conjuncture with the two atomic bombings of Japan, Soviet entry into the war eventually forced the final surrender of Japan, as previously stated.  For their brief participation the Soviets would get functional control of Manchuria, until it could be repatriated to proper Chinese authorities, and control of half of Korea, in a similar agreement to one made regarding Chinese and British forces occupying Indochina due to a lack of French manpower.  The Second Great War had finally ended, and while there was a lot of work left to do organizing the peace, for now the world breathed a collective sigh of relief.  There was no telling how long this state of affairs would last, though...

Next Chapter:  The Road to Korea Runs Through DC

[OAM]

(AN:  This update covers a lot more than most will, in a rather rapid fashion, as I covered the 1948 elections previously, and I'd like to get to the point where things are substantially different than IOTL)

Chapter Two - The Road to Korea Runs Through DC

Immediately post-war the world was relatively quiet, relatively being the operative word.  There was of course much work to be done in restoring the peacetime condition, along with events such as war crime trials for Nazi officials, but for the most such things were more expected than noteworthy.  Price controls and the like were slowly phased out to bring the economy back on track.  Though not unexpected and an unavoidable issue, the economic shock from returning veterans did cause some problems.  Given a few years the economy was naturally able to recover, at least in the United States, but short term pressures were enough to give the Republican Party control of Congress between the '46 and '48 elections.  Ironically, even as President Truman was voted out, his party was voted back in in Congress.

What may have been the tipping point was the economy in Europe, as strange as that may first seem, given Americans' penchant historically for ignoring foreign affairs.  A few months before the election a major foreign aid project was negotiated and passed, dubbed "The Marshall Plan."  At its core, most Americans found no fault with the program.  It delivered much needed reconstruction aid to the devastated continent.  Most saw this as a worthy use of the United States' economic might.  As they say, however, the devil is always in the details.

The program had been offered in partnership with the Soviets, though many were genuinely surprised that they had accepted.  Some figured humanitarian aid was humanitarian aid, and would support such measures unconditionally, but many had suspected the offer was more a PR move than anything, at least at the start, and didn't really expect the Soviets to embrace the idea.  Of course, on it's face, the Soviets didn't accept the Marshall Plan, but diplomacy and international relations is a large part about appearances.  The end result saw a lot less US aid going to Eastern European countries than would be credible to make a significant difference, but the Soviets successfully inserted themselves into the global picture as concerned members of the international community, just like the West, rather than power-hungry would-be controllers, as many anti-communists would like to portray them.  Reality is, as usual, much more complicated.  As part of their participation the Soviets organized the "Eastern European Trade Zone", as it was commonly referred to in English, allegedly to coordinate more effective reconstruction efforts.  The organization did indeed help those under Soviet influence rebuild, but it can be safely said that the more realist purpose of the group was to give the Soviets more leverage over "their half" of Europe.  Poland was included in the Zone, as was Finland, though Soviet control over Finland's internal policy remained almost non-existent.  As per earlier agreements, Finland was to remain strictly neutral in foreign affairs.  Seeing as European reconstruction was now officially an effort by all powers involved in WWII, the Soviets "graciously" amended the previous agreements to allow Finland to receive the foreign aid if they agreed to oversight on the payments through the Zone.

The program was finalized in late June of 1948, during the height of the election cycle.  In the end, countries under Soviet control were really only receiving around 30% of those in Western Europe, but the situation still did not sit very well with the voting public.  Blame was largely placed solely at the feet of Truman, in large part due to Dewey's campaign, and thus Dewey's base was likewise strengthened.  Dewey had a reputation for being somewhat isolationist, but during WWII he amended his views to include concessions that at least some attention to foreign affairs was required in the modern system.  He was successfully able to play himself off as a moderate who would be cautious when it came to foreign policy, but also able to make the tough calls when they needed to be made.

President Dewey seemed more bluster than bite, however, once he actually assumed office.  On domestic affairs he largely kept the New Deal intact, though with a Democratic Congress it's arguable about how much power he would have actually had to dismantle any key elements.  Dewey settled for merely accelerating peace time demobilization as his first domestic goal.  If events had merely stayed on course, Dewey likely could have coasted to an easy second term merely by holding the office when he did and not rocking the boat.  Such things were not be, however.

Having made foreign policy a talking point in the 48 election, even if a talking point many Americans didn't think too terribly hard about, there was at least some expectation that Dewey would be able to competently handle whatever the world threw his way.  That faith was challenged less than a year into his term, though, when the Chinese Civil War appeared to result in a complete victory for the Communists.  Fortunes had been faltering for the RoC for some time, and Chiang Kai-shek's forces were in full retreat to the islands off China's Southern coast.  Meanwhile Mao proclaimed the establishment of the People's Republic of China in Beijing, vowing that soon the last KMT forces would be put down.

Initially Dewey was quite indifferent to the situation.  Though a major ally in WWII, enough so to garner a seat on the UN Security Council, and a potential major trading partner, the RoC had never been stable enough to really be worth investing in.  The public felt quite differently, however, and soon a Second Red Scare was on.  This was exactly the type of thing they feared Truman's actions would have led to.  Sitting idly by would be political suicide.  Top advisers and cabinet members eventually convinced Dewey to offer full naval support to KMT forces.  The US Seventh Fleet was scrambled into the Taiwain Strait to prevent any crossings by communist forces and greatly reinforced in strength.  However, Dewey, nor anyone else in positions of Western leadership, had any intention of helping the KMT fight back into mainland China.  Unless they wanted to commit to another war on the same scale as the previous, only a scant four years distant, they wouldn't make any headway, and Chiang's little "republic" had already been far more of a moneysink than it had been worth.  For now, the USN would simply enforce a new status quo, such as it were.  The KMT would retain control of Taiwan, Hainan, and a few other smaller islands.  Mao was furious, but at present time there wasn't much he could do about it, though he never let up in his condemnations of the action.  The Soviets, to a lesser extent, protested the escalation, but with the KMT having asked for US assistance there was only so much noise they could make before the arguments just got ridiculous.

Dewey also quickly took several "tough on communism" actions too, to bolster public support.  One of which that would quickly come back to bite him was the canceling of upcoming elections on the Korean Peninsula involving a number of options regarding reunification, citing that "the current political atmosphere in Asia is not conducive to fair elections" and that the referendum packet would be better held after the current crisis had ended.  Seeing as the Chinese situation did not appear to have any clear ending in sight, this angered many Koreans, despite assurances that the elections would most likely be rescheduled for 1951, and most certainly before 1954.  Previously both the United States and the Soviet Union had formed "temporary" governments in their respective halves of Korea, and while the process up until this point had been going relatively smoothly, there were a few problems.  Firstly, no one on either side really knew how to handle the endgame if the eventual resultant elections didn't go their way.  Unfortunately for the United States, the margin of certainty really was way to small to be confident about the upcoming elections.  The South Korean government had a tendency to be heavy handed and rife with corruption, which was the opposite of endearing to the people.  The communists had their issues too, but seeing potential gain the Soviets were doing their best to offer an attractive option.  They had a natural advantage by controlling the more urbanized area of the country, along with support flowing in from the newly formed PRC, and Dewey's knee-jerk reaction to the Chinese Crisis only further bolstered support.

In the short term, Dewey did gain from his actions.  His response appeared tough, and while it's hard to quickly judge the effectiveness of actions, it was what the people wanted.  The Republicans managed to regain control of congress in the 1950 mid terms.  As the new Senators and Representatives were still getting used to their new desks, however, the bad consequences made themselves frightfully apparent.  On May 10, 1951, North Korean forces came screaming across the 38th parallel, taking the South Koreans completely by surprise.  Fearing that the negotiations on the matter would never resume, and judging themselves to have enough support not only from Chinese and Soviet allies, but also among the greater Korean population, the North had decided the best option was unify Korea by force.  The North was well armed and organized, while the South's army was barely as effective as a wooden fence.

Almost immediately an emergency session of the United Nations was called, but the United States found it bombarded by the Soviets for breaking off earlier negotiations.  Whatever truth the statement held, most countries didn't feel as if the situation warranted an invasion in response, but the issue of aid to South Korea never progressed very far, with threats of Soviet veto.  The United States would have to support its ally, but by and large they were going to have to go it alone...

Next Chapter:  Early Korea and the 1952 Election

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Interesting work so far. Hopefully I can keep up with this.

[OAM]

Chapter Two:  Early Korea and the 1952 Election

As far as fortunes of war go, the Korean Conflict has an explosive opening, but managed to stabilize after a few months.  By the end of the first month South Korean forces were pushed back into a perimeter around the Southeastern port city of Pusan.  American forces arrived quickly to hold the line, but in the long term this situation would be unacceptable.  A daring attack behind North Korean lines at the port city of Inchon by top commander Douglas MacArthur in late June reversed the situation for awhile, allowing a large potion of the North Korean army to be trapped and destroyed, the rest fleeing mostly back across the 38th parallel.  When it was time for a counterattack in early July, however, the United States found itself facing countless Chinese divisions ready to bolster a renewed Northern attack.  By mid-August the front had stabilized about 30 miles South of Seoul in a stalemate.

On the diplomatic front, the United States was able to convince some to assist in the defense of South Korea.  The United Kingdom joined the fight, as did most of the Commonwealth nations, but notably France decided to sit this one out, feeling as if they had enough on their plates with the situation in Indochina.  There was a bit of shock in the international community of China's sudden entry into the conflict, but Chinese authorities simply countered that they had already been at a state of war with the United States since 1949, and it has simply taken this long for the tides of conflict to produce actual violence.  For all their rhetoric, though, there was no "Second Front" opened by either side in Southern China.  Both sides were quite wary that at some point in the future the conflict might escalate to that point, however, and President Dewey almost doubled the USN's Pacific presence over the following year.  Air power, especially from carrier task groups, was vital in countering the numerically superior communist forces, even more so in the first months before significant allied ground assets could be transferred to the Korean Peninsula.  Stretching the Seventh Fleet too thin might have given the Chinese just the chance they needed, however, so the overall strategy boiled down to "wait for the navy," which meant by the time an attempt to retake Seoul could be readied it was better off to wait for the harsh Korean winter to pass, further frustrating both troops on the ground and the public at large with a lack of progress.

The question of nuclear weapons and their use was also harshly debated.  A large segment of the public, along with some top officials, including MacArthur, were in favor of their use.  Dewey and others kept the discussion off the table at the highest levels, though.  For one thing, and perhaps their argument that was most persuasive to those in favor, using nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula would be very counterproductive for reconstruction after the war.  At this time it was largely assumed the goal of the conflict would be to eliminate the Northern government entirely to remove future threats and absorb the land into the Southern government, despite lack of any conditions on the ground that would suggest this goal feasible.  Some who advocated for nuclear weapons wanted to use them as strategic weapons against China, but once again this was rejected.  China was pouring a lot of effort into the conflict, but could likely escalate the situation even further.  The Civil War experience would likely blunt some of the effects of a bombing campaign, as Chinese industry wasn't in very good shape to begin with, yet they could still field a very large force.  Lastly, there were of course humanitarian reasons, though the effects of radiation were still not quite fully understood at the time.  It was also feared that the escalation would provoke the Soviet Union into providing the Northern forces with more support, and increase the ammunition they had to hammer the West with diplomatically.  At the present time it was unlikely the Soviets would, or even could, respond in kind with nuclear assistance, though depending on how long the war stretched on that might eventually be a possibility.  Experts predicted that should the Soviets' atomic bomb program become able to mass produce weapons that Moscow would almost never trust its allies with such weapons, and that it would take years before the Soviets had enough to matter anyway.

The whole conversation was very public, and at one point MacArthur directly called the President out as being unable to prosecute the war to its fullest extent.  There were even talks about a primary challenge from MacArthur going into the 1952 election.  Dewey largely remained silent publicly on the issue and let it roll away, though not without taking serious damage to his popularity.  In private he rebuked MacArthur in a heated argument, but wound up convincing him to tone it down.  Dewey still had enough supporters, especially among the Northeastern business elite, to remain solidly as the Republican candidate.  It is likely that a deal was struck to offer the 56 nomination to MacArthur in return for his support, though there's no verifiable evidence, and future events would render the deal irrelevant anyway, should it have existed.

Korea wasn't the only issue going into 1952, but foreign affairs did largely block out domestic affairs.  The economy was good, but people cared more about how those who had been just too young to miss WWII were now being shipped off to die in yet another war.  People's inherent attitudes were not as anti-war as they are today, but the key issue seemed to be that the war was placed squarely at Dewey's perceived ineptitude in handling matters abroad.  As WWII had proved, Americans were willing to die for a good cause, but in their opinion Korea was not a good cause.  South Korea shouldn't be abandoned, but the fact that there was a conflict in the first place drew massive ire.  The general mishandling of events, furthermore, seemed to be spiraling into more headaches for the US around the world.  In January of 1952 the Soviet Union announced they were expanding the EETZ and creating a parallel organization for defense.  The re-armament of Europe was on.  To counter, the United States had to supply its own allies with weapons to get their militaries back up to snuff too, of course.  It was too soon to see if this would have any economic effects, but in general the public was now growing wary of just how much capital was flowing out of the United States.

Dewey's opponent going into the election was Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson.  He wasn't the most popular with the people, but the establishment liked him well enough.  He had a lot of ideas about how politics should work, and how to handle foreign affairs, in a manner which was fair and cooperative.  Most of it was over a lot of people's heads, but it sounded nice.  He was able to use this as a campaign point.  The public wouldn't get their pro-nuke candidate, but they would get a candidate that was for group solutions, good diplomacy, and responsible conduct.  While not backing down from Korea, Stevenson presented it as a problem that could be de-escalated and solved through international efforts, and promised that, if elected, he would seek out more partners on the issue.  While never said, it was also understood that while it was possible diplomacy couldn't be used as a tool in this situation, that Stevenson's talking points could also be taken as code for "pressure our other allies to get more involved" or "beat the Soviets at their own, sweet-talking game".  Though Dewey had largely left the New Deal alone, Stevenson also benefited from being of the party responsible and the still strong coalition that supported it.  In an attempt to bolster support from the South nonetheless, Stevenson's running mate was Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver.

In the end, though, the Democratic campaign didn't matter that much.  Dewey was largely regarded as a failure, though history would be much more kind to him.  People weren't so much voting for Stevenson as they were against Dewey, though Stevenson did at least seem like he had a viable alternative.  The result was almost a landslide, though not as bad as many during the depression.  Stevenson had one basic mandate:  Solve the Korean Crisis.  Time would tell how his brand of diplomacy would fare.

Governor Adlai Stevenson (D-IL)/Senator Estes Kefauver (D-TN) - 428 EV/56.1% PV
President Thomas E. Dewey (R-NY)/Vice PresidentEarl Warren (R-CA) - 103 EV/43.5% PV

Next Chapter:  The Stevenson Years and the 1956 Election

[OAM]

Chapter Three:  Early Korea and the 1952 Election

Stevenson wasted no time in jumping into the Korean Crisis.  Unfortunately, the time for decisive action may have passed.  Despite Stevenson's best efforts, the extra level of support he drummed up for South Korea was negligible.  France could not be convinced, in the highest profile failure of that campaign, and in the end the only additions to the coalition were some extra soldiers from Australian and New Zealand, as well as a small contribution from the newly independent Philippines.  The front largely stabilized into a static line, though the communists had complete control of the tempo.  The United States didn't have the numbers to push forward against the massive Chinese force, yet said numbers from the communists also could not penetrate a defense lead by superior US technology and air support.

The continuing conflict led to stress at home.  Unlike World War II, where nearly everyone was impacted and contributed to the fighting, the burden of Korea was falling disproportionately on the lower class and minorities such as African Americans.  Those who could find ways out of serving didn't want to get caught up in "Dewey's Blunder" as it was referred to in that context.  At the same time, while the economy was still good, it was starting to slow down a bit, to the point that those with a disadvantage would start to grumble slightly.  Calls for more protections for the poor and for minorities were starting to be heard, enough so that by 1955 a national movement for civil rights had formed, its first objective being the end of segregation in the South.  The movement seemed to explode out of nowhere overnight, but by that point many who had served their time in Korea were returning home and providing an ample support base for the movement.  Certain segments of the Northern population were also swayed by the message.  For the time being, however neither major party would comment on the issue.  The Republicans could potentially stand to gain by making it an issue, but to do so would require careful planning as to handle it right.  Jumping on early probably wouldn't do any good.  Stevenson, meanwhile, was in no position to potentially alienate his Southern support base, regardless of what he might personally think on the matter.  In better times he could have perhaps made a go at the issue, but not while battered by Korea and taking the blame for lack of US progress.

Europe was a mixed bag during Stevenson's term.  In early 1953, about a year after the Soviets organized Eastern Europe into a defensive alliance, the United States was able organize CATO, the Cross-Atlantic Treaty Organization.  CATO was a direct counter to communist rearmament in Europe and consisted of the US, Canada, United Kingdom, Portugal, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Italy, France, Denmark, and West Germany.  As part of the agreement the United States would provide more assistance for rebuilding Europe's military on very favorable conditions for Europe.  The other key provision was a mutual defense pact between all parties.

For a time CATO's formation served to cancel out some, but not all, of the ill political will towards Stevenson over his inability to "solve" Korea.  In late 1955 however tensions would rise in Europe and overshadow the West's temporary perceived "lead" on that front.  That winter saw nation wide protests across Hungary.  The causes were many, but generally revolved around the de facto Soviet occupation that was still ongoing.  At first protests were mainly student lead demonstrations that had little real impact, but after incidents of heavy handedness by the communist Hungarian government the situation escalated, to the point where Soviet "assistance" was required to "restore order".  In and of itself, while this event led to a more tarnished reputation for the Soviets, as they lost most of the moral high ground they'd tried to build up for themselves over Korea and previously, Hungary wouldn't have had much effect on the overall global stage had the protests not spread to Poland.

The situation on Poland was quite an odd mix of different actors.  Poland's economy and military were firmly under the Soviet thumb.  Without continued cooperation from the Soviet Union Poland's economy would quickly crash back to 1946 levels due to resource shortage, such was the nature of the trade agreements that had been forced through in the immediate post-WWII climate.  The military was obviously comprised mostly of Poles, but once again received most of it's supplies from the Soviet Union.  If it tried to make a go at independent operation it could cause a problem, but would likely only have two to three weeks before it was rendered completely ineffective.  To top off the situation politically, Poland had in fact reestablished parliamentary democracy with "relatively" free elections.  The Soviets did not interfere with purely internal policy in Poland at the political level, though the elected government tended to acquiesce anyway under blackmail like threats regarding the economy.  Furthermore, in both the 1947 and 1952 elections the Communist Party had won comfortably, in large part due to heavy financing from Moscow.  Poland was far from a free country, but at the same time enjoyed a status unseen elsewhere in the Eastern Bloc at that time, unless one includes Finland among its peers.

Protests in Poland started continued rationing during the winter, much as they had in Hungary.  The situation was entirely peaceful, but intense enough that within a week the government fell in a vote of no confidence.  This took the Soviets somewhat by surprise.  They knew the Poles were not happy, of course, but hadn't anticipated events proceeding so rapidly.  Poland was also not a problem they could bludgeon as easily as Hungary.  Furthermore, the West still cared about Poland, at least more than it did about Hungary.  They couldn't just put the country back under full martial law.

In the end, the Soviets came up with a rather clever solution.  They privately dumped support of the Polish Communist Party and instead secretly funneled their resources into the Democratic Socialist Party.  The democratic socialists were already quite popular.  The former government had actually put some effort into social programs, and considering Poland was emerging from great destruction following WWII, the programs had did an objectively okay job at making sure everyone was at least getting basic goods and services, even if it left a lot to be desired.  The democratic socialists had always been great proponents of these programs, but differentiated themselves from the true Communist Party by continually calling for increased liberty and independence from Moscow, though not as loudly as some of the right-wing groups.  They were a natural choice to have a large role in the next government.  Unfortunately, in snap elections during the first week of December they only won a plurality of seats, around 34%, meaning they would need a large coalition to actually form a stable government.  The communist party, now only holding roughly 17%, was all too eager to join in.  Thus, moving forward, Poland had a government which was claiming to spearhead reforms, but in reality could only be yanked around even harder by Moscow.  Now, at the drop of a hat, the Soviets could destabilize the Polish government.

For the time being the protests did subside, though many in Poland lost a lot of their optimism about the state of affairs.  Everyone knew they hadn't made any real progress, but at the same time, the Soviets weren't overtly threatening them.  Perhaps it was best to bide time until a point where Warsaw and Moscow weren't metaphorically joined at the hip, because everyone also knew that if push came to shove, Poland was going to be at a serious disadvantage.  From an American perspective, the event pushed the public more towards an anti-communist stance.  It gave a bit of retroactive respect for Dewey's decision to cancel Korean elections, even if the public wasn't fully convinced.  What was more damming was a serious gaffe made by Stevenson when asked to comment on the matter.  He stated, in a nutshell, that everything seemed to be in order and that the United States should have no comment on what the people of Poland do in their own politics.  In effect, though, it made him seem a bit out of touch and naive.

Going into the 1956 election there was once again an unpopular incumbent, though Stevenson wasn't as unpopular as Dewey had been in 1952.  There was a deep sense of unease across America, and while Stevenson couldn't be damned for any one thing, there sure wasn't a lot to praise him for either.  Korea was still dragging on with no clear end in sight.  All they had to show so far were more military funerals.  Furthermore, in an effort to oppose communism, they had somehow elected someone soft on communism.  People don't like to admit mistakes, but Stevenson wasn't one to get angry about.  More than a few people blamed themselves for making a poor choice in 52.

The state of affairs such as it was allowed the Republicans room to make a bit of a gamble.  They nominated Senator, and Senate Minority Leader, William F. Knowland of California, a rabid anti-communist and supporter of equal rights.  The latter sentiment was downplayed, but still permitted to be carried along in the undercurrent to attract some key Northern voters.  It wasn't like they had to particularly worry about offending Southern voters anyway.  The Republicans then double downed by nominating a rising star in the party, Senator Barry Goldwater from Arizona, as the Vice-Presidential candidate.  The ticket had two Westerners and two staunch anti-communists.  Together, they vowed to end the conflict in Korea, "one way or another".

Stevenson, for his part, tried to run a rather safe, moderate campaign, putting more effort into avoiding offending any more voters than winning new ones, really.  The result was he kept a lock on the South, but the swing voters, especially Northern Business interests and a rising tide of moralistic thinkers, saw no reason to repeat their choices from 52.  Stevenson lost, though he put up a good fight.  He even retained a few states that seemed sure to flip, such as Minnesota.  The Republicans gained both the House and the Senate, however, so such consolations didn't really made a difference.  America had a new plan, and was ready to execute it with full force.

Next Chapter:  The New America:  Are You Not Prosperous?

[OAM]

1956 Elections

Senate Minority Leader William F. Knowland (R-CA)/Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) - 315 EV/54.4% PV
President Adlai Stevenson (D-IL)/Vice President Estes Kefauver (D-TN) - 216 EV/45.1% PV

House of Representatives

Republican - 225
Democrat - 210

Speaker of the House - Joseph William Martin, Jr. (R-MA)

Senate

Republican - 51
Democrat - 45

Senate Majority Leader - Leverett Saltonstall (R-MA)

[OAM]

Just an author's note too guys:  Grad school has started up, so I'll probably be going a bit slower.  It's not that my workload is too heavy, just that I do history and politics every day, so even when doing it for fun sometimes I get a bit burnt out, heh.

Also I totally went over the character limit on that update and might start making elections a separate post.

[NickCT]

The fact that we've now had three one-term presidents probably doesn't project a portrait of stability and confidence to the rest of the world.

[OAM]

"You ain't seen nothin' yet kid!"  Heh, though to be fair, I didn't plan on it from the start, but it is a trend I noticed too.  I've made the elections out to 1972 so far, and there's some twists and turns I know everyone will love, even if it takes a degree of masochism