Will Scott Walker still run in 2016 if he loses in 2014?

[daveosupremo]

Of course, losing to Mary Burke would certainly hurt his prospects, it wouldn't necessarily be unprecedented for him to run and be successful in 2016. Mitt Romney didn't run for reelection in Massachusetts because he knew he would lose. Rick Perry was facing a potential primary challenge from Greg Abbott, which wasn't a sure thing, which may have led to his decision not to run again. Rick Santorum lost huge in Pennsylvania, and still came in second in 2012. So if Walker loses reelection, would he still be able to run a successful campaign in 2016?

[Maxwell]

Maybe, but it would be so much harder for him to do so. If he wins re-election in 2014, he would have a decent amount of resources behind him, but if he loses, he basically starts from the bottom as a dark horse.

[RogueBeaver]

I believe George Allen answered that question.

[Cory]

I believe George Allen answered that question.

[Maxwell]

I believe George Allen answered that question.

George Allen was an incumbent that was expected to wipe the floor with his opponent, and instead, blew up entirely. I don't think the same is expected of Governor Walker, whose policies are considered very controversial for a light blue state. That being said, Walker isn't nearly as notable of a candidate as Allen was when he was expected to run in 2008 either, so the loss of stature may make them equally irrelevant to their respective races.

[SWE]

Maybe, but he definitely would lose his front runner status

[Senator Cris]

Probably not, but if he will win, he will be the clear frontrunner and probably will win the nomination.

[Mister Mets]

I don't think so.

It's likely to be a crowded field. A message of "We are successful when we stand up to Democrats" doesn't work if you lose a purple state in a good year for your party.

I would disagree with the idea that he's the clear frontrunner if he wins. He is well-positioned, and looks good on paper. But he has yet to get the attention of the public the way Chris Christie or Rand Paul did.

[Simfan34]

No, but he won't lose, so the point is moot.

[SWE]

I don't think so.

It's likely to be a crowded field. A message of "We are successful when we stand up to Democrats" doesn't work if you lose a purple state in a good year for your party.

I would disagree with the idea that he's the clear frontrunner if he wins. He is well-positioned, and looks good on paper. But he has yet to get the attention of the public the way Chris Christie or Rand Paul did.

It'd be hard to call 2014 a good year for the GOP if Walker loses

[IceSpear]

No

[Free Bird]

I don't think so.

It's likely to be a crowded field. A message of "We are successful when we stand up to Democrats" doesn't work if you lose a purple state in a good year for your party.

I would disagree with the idea that he's the clear frontrunner if he wins. He is well-positioned, and looks good on paper. But he has yet to get the attention of the public the way Chris Christie or Rand Paul did.

It'd be hard to call 2014 a good year for the GOP if Walker loses

Don't use circular logic.

[GaussLaw]

I don't think so.

It's likely to be a crowded field. A message of "We are successful when we stand up to Democrats" doesn't work if you lose a purple state in a good year for your party.

I would disagree with the idea that he's the clear frontrunner if he wins. He is well-positioned, and looks good on paper. But he has yet to get the attention of the public the way Chris Christie or Rand Paul did.

It'd be hard to call 2014 a good year for the GOP if Walker loses

2014 will at the very least be considered a good year for the GOP.  The party will probably pick up House seats and will get at least 3-4 Senate seats.  So yes, Walker can lose with it being a good GOP year.

[NewYorkExpress]

Depends how much he loses by...

Amything more than two points and he's not viable, while less than two points makes less viable, but still a decent candidate (especially if Ryan doesn't run).

Of course the best thing for him is to win.

[TDAS04]

Possibly, especially if it's by a slim margin and Burke becomes unpopular.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rick Santorum ran, so... yeah, he could run. It wouldn't be as good though.

[Blue3]

Maybe, but he definitely would lose his front runner status

He's not a frontrunner anywhere but this forum, and hardly even on this forum.

Rick Santorum ran, so... yeah, he could run. It wouldn't be as good though.

He's the exception. Santorum literally had to wait until Pawlenty, Bachmann, Perry, and Cain all rose and fell on their own before he got his chance. Even if Walker ran, and I doubt he's that obsessed with winning the WH as Santorum that he would even want to run after losing for Governor, the spotlight would only get to him if 2016 is another primary year like 2012 (possible... but this whole scenario depend on a lot of what if's).

[pikachu]

He'll probably go the George Allen route. Santorum got really lucky that he did so well, and it took an extremely weak field and 6 years to wash off the stink. If Walker does lose, the GOP can just turn to Kasich to fill the same niche and he'll be coming off a comfortable reelection.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

It would slow Walker down, so it's hard to see him running.

[pbrower2a]

He has big problems awaiting him:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He encouraged national contributors to funnel money through the shadowy but deeply Wisconsin chapter of the secretive, right-wing, richly-endowed Club for Growth:

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http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/us/politics/emails-show-bigger-fund-raising-role-for-gov-scott-walker-of-wisconsin.html?_r=1

[nolesfan2011]

Yes I think he will run anyway, the GOP field isn't that strong and he can still run off his "accomplishments" and credentials, and the fact he survived 2 Wisconsin elections one of which was a hostile recall. Losing isn't the end of the world given the quality of GOP candidates avaliable

[Likely Voter]

If things start to go badly for Walker I wonder how hard Chris Christe (as head of the RGA) will fight to help him keep his job.