If Cuomo lost the primary...

[pikachu]

Even though it's really unlikely, this race would get really interesting if Cuomo lost. There'd be a discredited incumbent governor who'd (I think) still be on the ballot because of a third party, a highly inexperienced Democrat in a deep blue state, and a seemingly competent Republican who might be able to take advantage of a split Democratic Party and two candidates who don't seem to be very strong.

[IceSpear]

If Cuomo dropped off the WFP line, Teachout. If he stayed on and continued to actively campaign, probably Astorino.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Cuomo stays on the ballot as WFP nominee he wins (name recognition really helps here)

If not Astorino wins a very close race.

[Maxwell]

Astorino could beat Teachout

[KCDem]

Astorino could beat Teachout

I'm not sure about that. In a race between some-dudes the partisan tilt matters.

[Dixie Reborn]

Astorino could beat Teachout

I'm not sure about that. In a race between some-dudes the partisan tilt matters.

Except Astorino is not some dude.

[SWE]

Cuomo would beat both in a landslide

[KCDem]

Astorino could beat Teachout

I'm not sure about that. In a race between some-dudes the partisan tilt matters.

Except Astorino is not some dude.

Being an unknown county executive doesn't make you anyone. He's unknown and has no money to become better known, so partisan labels would carry the day.

[SWE]

Astorino could beat Teachout

I'm not sure about that. In a race between some-dudes the partisan tilt matters.

Except Astorino is not some dude.

Yes he is

[Lief 🗽]

If Cuomo stays on the ballot as WFP nominee he wins (name recognition really helps here)

If not Astorino wins a very close race.

Sounds about right.

[Simfan34]

Astorino could beat Teachout

I'm not sure about that. In a race between some-dudes the partisan tilt matters.

Except Astorino is not some dude.

Being an unknown county executive doesn't make you anyone. He's unknown and has no money to become better known, so partisan labels would carry the day.

If he was facing Teachout the "no money" thing would quickly change. A lot of major Republican donors have stayed home or have even given to Cuomo. They would swing hard to Astorino.

[ElectionsGuy]

He won't, but Teachout would win anyway.

(That's a awsome last name, btw)

[solarstorm]

It's very hard to tell who would win. I'd expect a 33-33-33 distribution, and the county map would look hilarious.

He won't, but Teachout would win anyway.

(That's a awsome last name, btw)

Yes, when I hear that name I have to think of a DM song: "Teachout and reach faith"
Her first name even more awesome, which is misspelt, btw.

[Vega]

I wonder if Cuomo would then change his party affiliation to "Working Families" since he was scorned by the Democrats.

[KCDem]

Astorino could beat Teachout

I'm not sure about that. In a race between some-dudes the partisan tilt matters.

Except Astorino is not some dude.

Being an unknown county executive doesn't make you anyone. He's unknown and has no money to become better known, so partisan labels would carry the day.

If he was facing Teachout the "no money" thing would quickly change. A lot of major Republican donors have stayed home or have even given to Cuomo. They would swing hard to Astorino.

Donors would then move in for Teachout and even the score. There is no way Astorino would win, in any scenario involving Teachout vs. Astorino one-on-one.

[BaconBacon96]

If Cuomo continues to campaign, Astorino would win due to vote splitting. If he drops out, Teachout would beat Astorino.

[nolesfan2011]

if Hawkins drops out and endorses Teachout, I think she would win by around 5 points (assuming Cuomo continues to campaign). Finishing order Teachout, Cuomo, Astorino

[© tweed]

this would be exactly the embarrassment the WFP needs.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Teachout 40%
Astorino 30%
Cuomo 25%
Others 5%

[Panda Express]

I could see several different scenarios occurring.

1. Teachout, after winning an unexpected primary victory gets a lot more scrutiny cast upon her and her lack of political experience causes her to fizzle out (like Joe Miller in Alaska in 2010). Cuomo ends up winning.

2. Cuomo is able to consolidate a decent chunk of the Republicans, independents and some democrats while Teachout gets the solid progressives. Asteroid ends up collapsing. Cuomo wins in similar fashion to Lieberman over Lamont in 2006.

3. Cuomo, after being embarrassed in the primary, loses party support and voter support and collapses. With Cuomo not taking too much support from her, Teachout wins over Asteroid without too much trouble.  

4. It's 33-33-33 and any one of them ends up winning.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If this actually happens, I solemnly swear I will get drunk to celebrate.