How do Dems gain net House seats this election?

[GaussLaw]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2014-house/

I see quite a few people saying Dems will gain House seats this cycle.  I just don't see how that's possible   

The GOP gets two automatic pickups (Matheson, McIntyre) and so do the Dems, though a bit less so (Grimm, Miller-open).

Republicans only have 3 tossup seats while Dems have 10.  I know Sabato gets a lot of flack here, but it seems like there just aren't enough races for the Dems to gain seats.  Besides, the electorate will be more GOP-friendly in 2014 than in 2012, so the idea of gaining seats just doesn't make sense.

[KCDem]

Easy, because there are fewer competitive Democratic-held districts than Republican-held ones. Also, you didn't really explain away Sabato's joke ratings in your post, so...nice try.

[GaussLaw]

Easy, because there are fewer competitive Democratic-held districts than Republican-held ones. Also, you didn't really explain away Sabato's joke ratings in your post, so...nice try.

Sabato gets bad ratings for a few select Senate races.  House races I don't see this for, other than Rahall when he had it at Lean R.  

None of Sabato's ratings seem apart from forum consensus when it comes to the House.  Most people agree with his ratings, more or less.  So I find it odd that people agree with his ratings yet think the Dems will pick up seats.  It just doesn't make sense that the electorate will be more Democratic in 2014 than in 2012.

Also, at KCDem, 10 vs 3 is a pretty big discrepancy.  Which races are rated inaccurately on the 'Tossup' line to make you think this?

[KCDem]

Easy, because there are fewer competitive Democratic-held districts than Republican-held ones. Also, you didn't really explain away Sabato's joke ratings in your post, so...nice try.

Sabato gets bad ratings for a few select Senate races.  House races I don't see this for, other than Rahall when he had it at Lean R.  

None of Sabato's ratings seem apart from forum consensus when it comes to the House.  Most people agree with his ratings, more or less.  So I find it odd that people agree with his ratings yet think the Dems will pick up seats.  It just doesn't make sense that the electorate will be more Democratic in 2014 than in 2012.

Also, at KCDem, 10 vs 3 is a pretty big discrepancy.  Which races are rated inaccurately on the 'Tossup' line to make you think this?

Remind me the last time the consensus on an internet forum reflected reality on a consistent basis?

Also 2014 doesn't have to be more Democratic than 2012. There are multiplicity of factors at play: voter targeting, candidate quality, fundraising, etc that could enable the Democratic party to gain seats.

[IceSpear]

Do people think Dems will gain seats? I haven't really seen that. Most people seem to predict a single digit Republican gain in seats.

[KCDem]

Do people think Dems will gain seats? I haven't really seen that. Most people seem to predict a single digit Republican gain in seats.

Are these the same people that expected Dems to lease the Senate in 2012?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do people think Dems will gain seats? I haven't really seen that. Most people seem to predict a single digit Republican gain in seats.

Are these the same people that expected Dems to lease the Senate in 2012?

No. The people indicating that a small republican gain is more likely than a small democratic gain include such folks as Mr. Rothenberg and Mr. Sabato, neither of which predicted the democrats would lose the senate in 2012, although both felt the democrats would end up with less seats than they actually did.

[KCDem]

Do people think Dems will gain seats? I haven't really seen that. Most people seem to predict a single digit Republican gain in seats.

Are these the same people that expected Dems to lease the Senate in 2012?

No. The people indicating that a small republican gain is more likely than a small democratic gain include such folks as Mr. Rothenberg and Mr. Sabato, neither of which predicted the democrats would lose the senate in 2012, although both felt the democrats would end up with less seats than they actually did.

So they were wrong last time too. Thanks!

[SWE]

Do people think Dems will gain seats? I haven't really seen that. Most people seem to predict a single digit Republican gain in seats.

Are these the same people that expected Dems to lease the Senate in 2012?

No. The people indicating that a small republican gain is more likely than a small democratic gain include such folks as Mr. Rothenberg and Mr. Sabato, neither of which predicted the democrats would lose the senate in 2012, although both felt the democrats would end up with less seats than they actually did.

So they were wrong last time too. Thanks!

What individual seats do you see flipping, if you expect Democrats to make a net gain?

[ElectionsGuy]

They don't. It would take another government shutdown.

Do people think Dems will gain seats? I haven't really seen that. Most people seem to predict a single digit Republican gain in seats.

Are these the same people that expected Dems to lease the Senate in 2012?

No. The people indicating that a small republican gain is more likely than a small democratic gain include such folks as Mr. Rothenberg and Mr. Sabato, neither of which predicted the democrats would lose the senate in 2012, although both felt the democrats would end up with less seats than they actually did.

So they were wrong last time too. Thanks!

So by your logic, because they were R-slanted last time we should assume they are R-slanted this time?

[Maxwell]

I thought Dems were going to make gains in the House, but I didn't really look at the races in contention. It looks like Republicans may add to their majority after all (though I'd move Lee Terry to toss-up, Carol Shea-Porter to Leans Dem, Mike Grimm to likely Dem, Tim Bishop to Likely Dem, and Rahall to Leans R)

[Vega]

Although it'd be nice to have the Democrats remain in the 200s in the House, that isn't likely at all.

R+8.

[IceSpear]

My official prediction would be:

D pickup: CA-31, NY-11, CO-06, IA-03, AR-02
R pickup: NC-07, UT-04, AZ-02, CA-52, FL-26, IL-10, NY-21

For a net of R+2.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do people think Dems will gain seats? I haven't really seen that. Most people seem to predict a single digit Republican gain in seats.

Are these the same people that expected Dems to lease the Senate in 2012?

No. The people indicating that a small republican gain is more likely than a small democratic gain include such folks as Mr. Rothenberg and Mr. Sabato, neither of which predicted the democrats would lose the senate in 2012, although both felt the democrats would end up with less seats than they actually did.

So they were wrong last time too. Thanks!

As was almost the entire world on the exact outcome of the 2012 senate elections. Hietkamp's victory was a surprise to almost everyone, Tester's win was considered an upset (particularly in terms of the margin of victory), and the few who managed to predict both wins were equally surprised by Heller's win in NV.

[GaussLaw]

Do people think Dems will gain seats? I haven't really seen that. Most people seem to predict a single digit Republican gain in seats.

Are these the same people that expected Dems to lease the Senate in 2012?

No. The people indicating that a small republican gain is more likely than a small democratic gain include such folks as Mr. Rothenberg and Mr. Sabato, neither of which predicted the democrats would lose the senate in 2012, although both felt the democrats would end up with less seats than they actually did.

So they were wrong last time too. Thanks!

KC Dem, the point was, I'd like to see you post your predictions of each individual House race to show how the Dems gain House seats, and which forecasts are wrong and why.

[KCDem]

Do people think Dems will gain seats? I haven't really seen that. Most people seem to predict a single digit Republican gain in seats.

Are these the same people that expected Dems to lease the Senate in 2012?

No. The people indicating that a small republican gain is more likely than a small democratic gain include such folks as Mr. Rothenberg and Mr. Sabato, neither of which predicted the democrats would lose the senate in 2012, although both felt the democrats would end up with less seats than they actually did.

So they were wrong last time too. Thanks!

What individual seats do you see flipping, if you expect Democrats to make a net gain?

I could see the Democrats picking up: IA-03, CO-06, CA-31, NY-11, FL-02, NJ-03,  and VA-10.
The Republicans pick up: NY-21, UT-04, NC-07, AZ-01

Net change: D+3