Realistically, could anyone beat Hillary in a primary?
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  Realistically, could anyone beat Hillary in a primary?
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Author Topic: Realistically, could anyone beat Hillary in a primary?  (Read 5171 times)
They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« on: August 22, 2014, 01:51:25 AM »

I honestly have no idea. I really do want to say no, because as it stands today it's her race to lose, but I think if both Sanders and O'Malley run (which they more than likely will) their division of the base could possibly lead to someone slipping through the cracks to grab the nod. Possibly O'Malley.
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2014, 02:00:16 AM »

Perhaps, but it will be harder than 2008. 2008 required all of the following 3 for her to lose
Iraq war vote and hawkishness on Iran
Mark Penn running a terrible campaign, ignoring caucuses, race baiting.
Obama being a good candidate

But the good news is that she managed to blow an almost sure thing in 2008, so could do it again.
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Blue3
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2014, 02:05:54 AM »

Yes... but highly, highly unlikely. She has a 75%+ probability of winning the primaries, when usually for a candidate it's around 5-20%. If the primaries were today, she'd definitely win, no matter who ran against her.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2014, 02:08:33 AM »

I think Elizabeth Warren is the only person who could. I don't see her losing to anyone else. Her position is much stronger than it was in 2008, when she was more polarizing.
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User157088589849
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2014, 08:41:10 AM »

Only someone from the far left or ultra progressive wing of the party. Elizabeth Warren could be that candidate as stated above. Nobody else has the money, infrastructure or

But democratic voters are incredible at shooting themselves in the foot. When they have a tier 1 candidate, they will do everything to rebel or look for someone different.

Obama could easily have lost the 08 election had it not been for the crash.
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whanztastic
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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2014, 08:51:37 AM »

I think Elizabeth Warren is the only person who could. I don't see her losing to anyone else. Her position is much stronger than it was in 2008, when she was more polarizing.



Every indicator shows no.

Only Hillary can beat Hillary (health, accident, etc.).
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Simfan34
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2014, 09:58:16 AM »

I'm sure there are a few, but they'd never run.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2014, 10:44:06 AM »

Her popularity among the Dem primary electorate makes it very difficult to imagine. If she has the support of 70%, any opponent is going to hit a low ceiling before they drive their own negatives up by hurting Hillary.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2014, 11:02:14 AM »

Perhaps, but it will be harder than 2008. 2008 required all of the following 3 for her to lose
Iraq war vote and hawkishness on Iran
Mark Penn running a terrible campaign, ignoring caucuses, race baiting.
Obama being a good candidate

But the good news is that she managed to blow an almost sure thing in 2008, so could do it again.

And even in that perfect storm against her (along with starting out in a weaker position), she still got the support of nearly half the party. 2008 was never a lock for her. She was the frontrunner, but a frontrunner polling at 35-40% isn't completely safe. Now, the 60-70% she's currently at is the level of support an incumbent president usually receives.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2014, 12:10:29 PM »

Possible, but incredibly unlikely.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2014, 01:40:35 PM »

I'm conflicted on this. Based on what Hillary's done, sure. Her positions on military action, ties to Wall Street and smaller missteps suggest that she's vulnerable, especially with Democrats electing some of the most progressive officeholders ever (Warren, De Blasio, Tammy Baldwin, Chris Murphy, etc.)

But she doesn't have a credible opponent. Sanders is a socialist, and he's too old. Webb and Schwietzer appeal primarily to rural white guys, a small chunk of the primary vote. Warren doesn't seem like she's running. Dean's endorsed her. O'Malley's the only one from the younger generation (Gillibrand, Booker, Castro, Klobuchar, etc.) to lay any groundwork, and he hasn't demonstrated enough political talent to suggest he'd do better in a primary than the Bill Richardsons of the world.
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2014, 07:47:32 PM »

Yes and I continue to predict someone will, Clinton will not be the nominee of the Dems in 2016
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daveosupremo
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« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2014, 07:56:57 PM »

Russ Feingold could beat her. I don't know that anybody else could. None of the people being talked about as possible challengers (Dean, O'Malley, Schweizer, Sanders, etc.) could do it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2014, 08:36:27 PM »

A majority of Americans are becoming hawks -- about ISIS.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2014, 08:39:43 PM »

It's possible, but not likely. 
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2014, 09:23:26 PM »

A majority of Americans are becoming hawks -- about ISIS.

A majority of Americans don't support arming "moderate" rebels who include ISIS.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2014, 10:04:18 PM »

Yes and I continue to predict someone will, Clinton will not be the nominee of the Dems in 2016

Hillary's chances of losing a primary are about as high as Bellows' chances of beating Collins. Wink
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« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2014, 10:08:26 PM »

The way things stand today, no, but there's some always amount of uncertainty when looking 2 years into the future.

The best hope for the anti-Hillary crowd is for her to not run for whatever reason.
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henster
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« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2014, 10:42:49 PM »

It has to be another women like Kirsten Gillibrand or Amy Klobuchar possibly even Tammy Baldwin. I also think Deval Patrick or Cory Booker would give her a good run someone like O'Malley just doesn't stand a chance.
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jfern
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« Reply #19 on: August 25, 2014, 12:09:50 AM »

It has to be another women like Kirsten Gillibrand or Amy Klobuchar possibly even Tammy Baldwin. I also think Deval Patrick or Cory Booker would give her a good run someone like O'Malley just doesn't stand a chance.

I'd be crazy if we could only get a woman nominated.

Booker is just as bad as Hillary.  Baldwin, Patrick, or O'Malley would be fine.
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King
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« Reply #20 on: August 25, 2014, 11:07:55 AM »

There's a concept of a person who can beat Hillary but no one actually exists.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #21 on: August 25, 2014, 01:19:24 PM »

There's a concept of a person who can beat Hillary but no one actually exists.
I think they exist, but they're not making any moves.

A Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand or Elizabeth Warren could run a credible campaign against Clinton. But they're either not interested, or not willing to take that risk.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: August 25, 2014, 01:21:43 PM »

She's certainly beatable, but the problem is nobody looks like they could at the moment. Likely, like 2008, if she does lose she loses because of her own and her campaigns incompetence.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #23 on: August 25, 2014, 01:35:37 PM »

August 2006: "No one could beat Hillary in a primary."
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Abhakhazia
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« Reply #24 on: August 25, 2014, 01:43:23 PM »

History rarely goes according to plan. While I don't know who and I don't know how, it certainly is possible for Hillary to go down in defeat.
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