Realistically, could anyone beat Hillary in a primary? (user search)
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  Realistically, could anyone beat Hillary in a primary? (search mode)
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Question: Well?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Not sure
 
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Author Topic: Realistically, could anyone beat Hillary in a primary?  (Read 5281 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,987
Canada
« on: August 29, 2014, 12:34:54 AM »

It's more possible than people are willing to admit. Because Hillary Clinton is already the defacto nominee, she will stake out a few positions on policy issues that will irritate progressives and she will face increased scrutiny from progressive media outlets over the next year. A dark horse candidate could decide to enter the race if the conditions are right and win.

At the very least, I expect that a protest candidate of marginal status will enter the race and do fairly well in the Iowa caucuses (20-30%). In the end, she may win Iowa by less than 50-60%. We'll see though.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,987
Canada
« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2014, 12:59:22 AM »

At the very least, I expect that a protest candidate of marginal status will enter the race and do fairly well in the Iowa caucuses (20-30%). In the end, she may win Iowa by less than 50-60%.

Well sure, if Sanders challenges her, then her margin of victory in either Iowa or New Hampshire being less than 50 points seems like a good bet.  Sanders would air criticism of her from the left that most Democratic voters haven't been exposed to yet because they're not paying attention to the race.  So I don't think he'd remain stuck at 2% by any means.  There'll be *some* traction for his message in the party, so getting something like 25% or more in one of the early states is very doable.


Even if it isn't Sanders, I bet that some vaguely qualified politician or prominent progressive figure will challenge her from the left and will receive a non-negligible number of votes because he/she will receive a some media coverage from MSNBC and a lot of media coverage from the progressive blogosphere and magazine circuit.

The Democratic Party is too diverse for Hillary Clinton to win early primary states by gargantuan numbers. Even a some dude candidate could achieve a respectable performance with the right strategy. I'm sure that some of Ron Paul's supporters would be more likely to vote for a far-left oddity running on drug legalization, isolationist foreign policy, anti-NSA etc than for Rand Paul.
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