Which is more likely to lose?

[Miles]

I'll have to break with Sabato on this and say McConnell.

[ElectionsGuy]

McConnell

[IceSpear]

McConnell (sane)

[Talleyrand]

Probably Franken, although I suspect that both will win fairly comfortably (Franken in the high single digits and McConnell by about ten points). Let's not forget the highly awful political environment for Democrats and the respective politics of each of their states.

[IceSpear]

Probably Franken, although I suspect that both will win fairly comfortably (Franken in the high single digits and McConnell by about ten points). Let's not forget the highly awful political environment for Democrats and the respective politics of each of their states.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

(And before the inevitable "it's too early for that", Republicans were leading it by 6 points at this point in 2010)

[Miles]

^ Franken's approvals are positive and he has a weaker challenger.

[Miles]

Roll Call: McConnell 6th most vulnerable Senator, Franken 9th.

[IceSpear]

Roll Call: McConnell 6th most vulnerable Senator, Franken 9th.

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Roberts?

[Miles]

Roberts?

The author tweeted me ans says they're waiting for the picture to clear up a bit in KS.

[henster]

The last SUSA poll had Franken with a 56% approval rating so he's actually popular in his state and doesn't have to rely on the lean of the state in order to win. If Kentucky were an R+2 state like MN is a D+2 state McConnell would be toast.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McConnell, the Dems managed to pull off the AR, LA, KY corridor during Clinton term, and GOP never pulled MN off.

But, aside that, McConnell campaign have problems such as communications and campaign management.

[KCDem]

Roll Call: McConnell 6th most vulnerable Senator, Franken 9th.

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Is that a serious reason for including him? LOL Roll Call is a bigger joke publication than I thought.

[Never]

Roll Call: McConnell 6th most vulnerable Senator, Franken 9th.

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Is that a serious reason for including him? LOL Roll Call is a bigger joke publication than I thought.

By including Warner on the list, I'd expect a Democrat to find solace in the article's implication that it is almost impossible for nine Democratic incumbents to lose this year, instead of acting like the writers at Roll Call are buffoons. Roll Call isn't a joke at all, they're one of the best nonpartisan news outlets in Washington.

[GaussLaw]

Roll Call: McConnell 6th most vulnerable Senator, Franken 9th.

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Is that a serious reason for including him? LOL Roll Call is a bigger joke publication than I thought.

By including Warner on the list, I'd expect a Democrat to find solace in the article's implication that it is almost impossible for nine Democratic incumbents to lose this year, instead of acting like the writers at Roll Call are buffoons. Roll Call isn't a joke at all, they're one of the best nonpartisan news outlets in Washington.

Honestly, I think Durbin is more vulnerable than Warner.  While the IL polls may be junkie, at least Oberweis can get within 12 points in some polling.

[Vega]

McConnell (sane)