PPP-Kansas: Hillary trails by 1-5% against GOP gang of five

[eric82oslo]

Here are PPP's latest findings on the 2016 race in Kansas...

Hillary - Jeb Bush: 39-45
Hillary - Huckabee: 41-46
Hillary - Rand Paul: 41-45
Hillary - Christie 38-42
Hillary - Ted Cruz: 42-43

These are pretty good numbers for her.

More info here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/08/kansas-miscellany.html#more

[Rockefeller GOP]

Riiiiiight.

[henster]

Well Obama got 38% of the vote there in 2012 so she's not that far off from that number it looks like she's at the Dem's ceiling and the R support hasn't coalesced yet.

[Maxwell]

This is a case of it being super early and Ted Cruz being a horrible candidate (and apparently, also Christie)

[KCDem]

She'll win between 38-42% of the vote come election day.

[SPC]

Probably a product of anger toward Republicans in Kansas.

[Panda Express]

Looks like Lief was right.

[Lief 🗽]

I will now accept my accolades.

[pbrower2a]

To give some idea of how badly a Democrat can lose Kansas and get elected nationwide:


1944: Kansas -- Dewey 60.25%, Roosevelt 39.18%
Nationwide:  Roosevelt 53.39% Dewey 45.89%


2008: Kansas -- McCain 56.48%, Obama 41.55%
Nationwide -- Obama 52.86%, McCain 45.60%

Political realities changed dramatically over 64 years, but Kansas remains one of the most R-leaning states. 

[Tender Branson]

These polls should not be taken seriously in the next few months, because they are of 2014 likely voters.

Ignore them until November, when PPP switches to registered voters again.

[Senator Cris]

This is a case of it being super early and Ted Cruz being a horrible candidate (and apparently, also Christie)

Also Rand Paul... Paul leads by only 4%, as Christie

[IceSpear]

These polls should not be taken seriously in the next few months, because they are of 2014 likely voters.

Ignore them until November, when PPP switches to registered voters again.

This is a good point for PPP. I'm not sure if the other pollsters will deviate from their 2014 likely voter sample when asking the 2016 questions.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Good news for John McCain !

[Tender Branson]

These polls should not be taken seriously in the next few months, because they are of 2014 likely voters.

Ignore them until November, when PPP switches to registered voters again.

This is a good point for PPP. I'm not sure if the other pollsters will deviate from their 2014 likely voter sample when asking the 2016 questions.

When SurveyUSA for example polls a state, they always screen for adults, RV and LV.

They use the bigger RV sample for 2016 stuff and their smaller LV sample for 2014 stuff.

I wish PPP would do the same, because it's stupid to poll 2014 LV for their 2016 preference, when 2014 LV only make up half of the potential 2016 electorate.

In the case of KS, a 2014 LV model would produce a skewed Dem-leaning 2016 picture, because of more Browncrook-hating Indies turning out in November. In 2016, the Indies will then be much more GOP-leaning.

[eric82oslo]

In the case of KS, a 2014 LV model would produce a skewed Dem-leaning 2016 picture, because of more Browncrook-hating Indies turning out in November. In 2016, the Indies will then be much more GOP-leaning.

This is by far the most extreme and laughable idea I've heard in all of my life.

If you ask any media pundit in the entire United States, every single one of them (!) (every single, not even 99 out of 100!) would say that every single poll in the US of A of 2014 will be at the very least 6% or 7% skewed in the favour of Republicans due to Democratic voters being less engaged in the election and expected to turn out far, far less (as they always do) than in presidential election years.

To make that 7-8-9% in favour of Republicans turn into a net sample favouring Democrats is hilariously inaccurate. Even though I like you Tender, this is the most stupid think you've said in your entire life. Good riddance or whatever Americans say lol.

[Tender Branson]

In the case of KS, a 2014 LV model would produce a skewed Dem-leaning 2016 picture, because of more Browncrook-hating Indies turning out in November. In 2016, the Indies will then be much more GOP-leaning.

This is by far the most extreme and laughable idea I've heard in all of my life.

If you ask any media pundit in the entire United States, every single one of them (!) (every single, not even 99 out of 100!) would say that every single poll in the US of A of 2014 will be at the very least 6% or 7% skewed in the favour of Republicans due to Democratic voters being less engaged in the election and expected to turn out far, far less (as they always do) than in presidential election years.

To make that 7-8-9% in favour of Republicans turn into a net sample favouring Democrats is hilariously inaccurate. Even though I like you Tender, this is the most stupid think you've said in your entire life. Good riddance or whatever Americans say lol.

Eric, I like you too - but you should re-consider because you sound like a Democratic hack:

I was not talking about Democrats and Republicans turning out, but of Independents (which are hating Brownback at the moment). If you have a 2014 LV poll, which first asks people about their feelings of Brownback and which produces a poll that has Brownback down by 4 and then ask these same people how they would vote in a 2016 matchup, OF COURSE this will produce favorable results for Hillary, much more favorable than it would be the case in November 2016 !

Have you looked at the Republican numbers too ? I guess not.

The Republican candidates are currently receiving just 69-75% of Republican voters in KS, according to the PPP poll.

Why ?

Because many Republicans hate Browncrook and that impacts these candidates in a 2014 likely voter poll.

That's exactly why pollsters should NEVER use 2014 likely voter polls for 2016 matchups, because a state's current climate impacts polling results.

The 2016 makeup will simply be different, with Browncrook likely being voted out this November.

Republicans will back their candidate with 90% and not with 69-75% and Independents (much more of them turning out like in a mid-term) will become more GOP-voting again, with Browncrook out of office.

If you seriously think that Hillary will come anywhere close to 1-6 points of a GOP candidate in 2016 and ignore the fact that this PPP poll is a product of a tainted state climate, I can't help you either ...

Once again Eric, please don't be a hack and consider the facts and apply a dose of logic.

Thx.

[pbrower2a]

These polls should not be taken seriously in the next few months, because they are of 2014 likely voters.

Ignore them until November, when PPP switches to registered voters again.

This is a good point for PPP. I'm not sure if the other pollsters will deviate from their 2014 likely voter sample when asking the 2016 questions.

When SurveyUSA for example polls a state, they always screen for adults, RV and LV.

They use the bigger RV sample for 2016 stuff and their smaller LV sample for 2014 stuff.

I wish PPP would do the same, because it's stupid to poll 2014 LV for their 2016 preference, when 2014 LV only make up half of the potential 2016 electorate.

In the case of KS, a 2014 LV model would produce a skewed Dem-leaning 2016 picture, because of more Browncrook-hating Indies turning out in November. In 2016, the Indies will then be much more GOP-leaning.

Please! Let's not distort names.

I'm not going to accuse Governor Brownback of corruption until someone can pin something on him other than extremism or incompetence that makes him a bad governor. See also LePage in Maine. As in other states, the GOP has effectively purged out the moderates, and those disgruntled with the Party that 'left them' might first hold their nose while voting for the candidates of the Party that they used to think irrelevant.  They say afterwards with some sobbing, "I just could not vote for the nominee of the Party that I still have ties to".

For decades the Democratic Party was all but irrelevant in Kansas, the real electoral action happening in the Republican primary in a contest between GOP moderates and GOP right-wingers. The moderates have to go somewhere. Voting for a Party that has images of FDR and JFK isn't so much a shock to a Kansas moderate as voting for a Party that has an image of the arch-enemy of the "War of Northern Aggression" to a southern racist Democrat in the South.