GA: Landmark: Nunn +7

[Miles]

Better link coming.

Nunn (D)- 47%
Perdue (R)- 40%
Swafford (L)- 3%


Splendid news! Such a great day!

[Talleyrand]

Junk poll, as was their last one, and whatever came before that.

[GaussLaw]

So it's basically Landmark vs every other polling firm

PPP needs to poll this one again.

[Person Man]

Junk poll, as was their last one, and whatever came before that.

Moo moo moo!

[Lief 🗽]

Wonderful news! Looks like Nunn is getting ready to pull down Perdue's knickers and spank his bum until it's swollen and red!

[Person Man]

Junk poll, as was their last one, and whatever came before that.

Moo moo moo!

[DrScholl]

Junk poll, as was their last one, and whatever came before that.

They actually have had some accurate polling in the past, in 2012, they were good. It's so sad how every single poll that shows a Republican trailing is labeled junk on this board.

[GaussLaw]

Junk poll, as was their last one, and whatever came before that.

They actually have had some accurate polling in the past, in 2012, they were good. It's so sad how every single poll that shows a Republican trailing is labeled junk on this board.

You've got to be kidding me.  Atlas is just about the only place I've seen where most think the Dems will keep the Senate (based on Forum surveys).  Your persecution complex is delusional.

[DrScholl]

Junk poll, as was their last one, and whatever came before that.

They actually have had some accurate polling in the past, in 2012, they were good. It's so sad how every single poll that shows a Republican trailing is labeled junk on this board.

You've got to be kidding me.  Atlas is just about the only place I've seen where most think the Dems will keep the Senate (based on Forum surveys).  Your persecution complex is delusional.

Take a look at some of the threads, there are plenty of posters calling polls junk.

[GAworth]

I hope it is true, I don't see it being true. What is the MOE?

[GaussLaw]

Junk poll, as was their last one, and whatever came before that.

They actually have had some accurate polling in the past, in 2012, they were good. It's so sad how every single poll that shows a Republican trailing is labeled junk on this board.

You've got to be kidding me.  Atlas is just about the only place I've seen where most think the Dems will keep the Senate (based on Forum surveys).  Your persecution complex is delusional.

Take a look at some of the threads, there are plenty of posters calling polls junk.

Sure, but polls showing leads or close races for people like Brown are also called junk.  Besides, this forum is far nicer in predictions for Dems than nearly any other place I've seen....  All I'm saying is, when every poll besides Landmark(which has been the only source of Nunn leads for a while) is against you, don't you think Landmark should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Free Bird]

Sees replies

[KCDem]

Junk poll, as was their last one, and whatever came before that.

They actually have had some accurate polling in the past, in 2012, they were good. It's so sad how every single poll that shows a Republican trailing is labeled junk on this board.

You've got to be kidding me.  Atlas is just about the only place I've seen where most think the Dems will keep the Senate (based on Forum surveys).  Your persecution complex is delusional.

Other than this site, do you only consult Red State and the Politico comments section? You may not be getting the full picture.

As to the poll, it's hard to say what the result is going to be in Georgia because we don't know what the turnout is going to look like. The polls with Perdue ahead undersample the minority vote and oversample the white vote. The polls with Nunn ahead seem to oversample the minority vote (at least relative to where we would expect it to be) and seem to show ~30% of whites for Nunn. I think the truth is somewhere in between. Anything between Perdue+2 to Nunn+2 makes sense right now. We won't really know until closer to election day.

[Miles]

Atlas is just about the only place I've seen where most think the Dems will keep the Senate (based on Forum surveys).

We're about evenly split.

[Vega]

We're about evenly split.

Just like the Senate will be. What a interesting coincidence.

[GaussLaw]

Atlas is just about the only place I've seen where most think the Dems will keep the Senate (based on Forum surveys).

We're about evenly split.

Oh, that changed from when I last saw the poll and showed the Dems leading by a few.   The 50/50 split is fine.

As for KC, Washington Post, Upshot, and 538 all project a GOP advantage (as in, greater than 50/50) in keeping the Senate.  In addition, plenty of mainstream people on MSNBC/CNN think the Dems will lose the Senate, so I'm hardly the only one. 

So if we were to go by poll results of % chance Dems will keep Senate, it's Atlas 50, and just about every other website less than that (discounting partisan ones).  I know rigorous models are different than people's opinion, but the fact that the median forum opinion is more favorable to Democrats than virtually all forecasts, that is indicative of some bias to me. 

To be fair, if the polls turned out like they were in 2012, Atlas would be the most accurate of anyone.  But it could be wrong in the opposite direction.  As many Republicans learned in 2012, extrapolating trends based on the previous election cycle is not a great idea.

[GaussLaw]

Also, can we at least agree that this is Advantage Perdue until some other poll besides Landmark says otherwise?  Landmark showed Perdue trailing twice before this happened (right before and after primary) unlike other pollsters, so they're clearly the outliers here.

EDIT:  I admit I like Perdue a lot and want him to be Georgia's next Senator (I have become more conservative since entering the forum, but even when I was a Dem I admired the guy a lot), but if you look at the fundamentals and most of the polls, Perdue's got the lead here.

[KCDem]

Also, can we at least agree that this is Advantage Perdue until some other poll besides Landmark says otherwise?  Landmark showed Perdue trailing twice before this happened (right before and after primary) unlike other pollsters, so they're clearly the outliers here.

EDIT:  I admit I like Perdue a lot and want him to be Georgia's next Senator (I have become more conservative since entering the forum, but even when I was a Dem I admired the guy a lot), but if you look at the fundamentals and most of the polls, Perdue's got the lead here.

This is all we need to know, folks. No need to listed to your silliness any longer.

[DrScholl]

Junk poll, as was their last one, and whatever came before that.

They actually have had some accurate polling in the past, in 2012, they were good. It's so sad how every single poll that shows a Republican trailing is labeled junk on this board.

You've got to be kidding me.  Atlas is just about the only place I've seen where most think the Dems will keep the Senate (based on Forum surveys).  Your persecution complex is delusional.

Take a look at some of the threads, there are plenty of posters calling polls junk.

Sure, but polls showing leads or close races for people like Brown are also called junk.  Besides, this forum is far nicer in predictions for Dems than nearly any other place I've seen....  All I'm saying is, when every poll besides Landmark(which has been the only source of Nunn leads for a while) is against you, don't you think Landmark should be taken with a grain of salt.

Landmark is considering a Republican leaning firm, and on top of that, their results have been accurate before.

[Free Bird]

Also, can we at least agree that this is Advantage Perdue until some other poll besides Landmark says otherwise?  Landmark showed Perdue trailing twice before this happened (right before and after primary) unlike other pollsters, so they're clearly the outliers here.

EDIT:  I admit I like Perdue a lot and want him to be Georgia's next Senator (I have become more conservative since entering the forum, but even when I was a Dem I admired the guy a lot), but if you look at the fundamentals and most of the polls, Perdue's got the lead here.

This is all we need to know, folks. No need to listed to your silliness any longer.

Then we don't have to listen to all your Clinton gushing in that case

[Senator Cris]

Junk poll, as was their last one, and whatever came before that.

They actually have had some accurate polling in the past, in 2012, they were good. It's so sad how every single poll that shows a Republican Democrat trailing is labeled junk on this board.

[Adam Griffin]

Unlike some of the other recent ones, this one actually used live interviews - including cell phones. Landmark is also a Republican polling firm. Let's look at their top o' the ballot results, based on the last poll in each previous cycle:

Final 2012 Poll: Romney +11 (last 2012 poll was in May)
2012 Result: Romney +8

Final 2010 Poll: Isakson +21
2010 Result: Isakson +19

So not much to go on, unfortunately. Landmark always lags with the publication of their crosstabs (or doesn't all), but here's what we know:

Men: Perdue +7
Women: Nunn +18

Blacks: Nunn +65
Whites: Perdue +20

This seems hard to believe. In the most recent two polls, the crosstabs suggested Nunn was doing worse than Obama with whites (silly). If my math is right on this one when projecting undecideds* and if the election were held today, Nunn would be hovering at 40% of the white vote (also silly).

*Republicans

[Niemeyerite]

LoL at new posters pretending this forum is full of dem hacks who think democrats will win in every close race and ignore polls. Just take a look at 2008, 2010 and 2012 predictions made by users in the forum, and you'll realize that it's GOP hacks making joke predictions and unskewing polls, generally speaking.

[KCDem]

Also, can we at least agree that this is Advantage Perdue until some other poll besides Landmark says otherwise?  Landmark showed Perdue trailing twice before this happened (right before and after primary) unlike other pollsters, so they're clearly the outliers here.

EDIT:  I admit I like Perdue a lot and want him to be Georgia's next Senator (I have become more conservative since entering the forum, but even when I was a Dem I admired the guy a lot), but if you look at the fundamentals and most of the polls, Perdue's got the lead here.

This is all we need to know, folks. No need to listed to your silliness any longer.

Then we don't have to listen to all your Clinton gushing in that case

I never said I like Clinton a lot, nor have I said that I want her to be the next president. I'm conducting analysis rather than working myself up to a keyboard orgasm, unlike many around here.

[Free Bird]

LoL at new posters pretending this forum is full of dem hacks who think democrats will win in every close race and ignore polls. Just take a look at 2008, 2010 and 2012 predictions made by users in the forum, and you'll realize that it's GOP hacks making joke predictions and unskewing polls, generally speaking.

Which there IS