Which VP pick moved the needle more in their home state? (user search)
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  Which VP pick moved the needle more in their home state? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which VP pick moved the needle more in their home state?
#1
John Edwards (D-NC) in 2004
 
#2
Paul Ryan (R-WI) in 2012
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: Which VP pick moved the needle more in their home state?  (Read 3729 times)
Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« on: September 23, 2014, 07:38:53 PM »
« edited: September 23, 2014, 07:59:25 PM by Wulfric »

Let's compare:

Wisconsin 2008: Obama +13.9
Wisconsin 2012: Obama +6.9
2012 National Swing: Romney +3.3

If Wisconsin only swung with the nation, it would have been Obama +10.6. Clearly, Paul Ryan was a significant help, but not significant enough to make Romney actually win the state. On the other hand:

North Carolina 2000: Bush +12.8
North Carolina 2004: Bush +12.4
2004 National Swing: Bush +2.9

So, Edwards kept NC from swinging with the nation, and even narrowed the margin a bit from 2000, but the overall effect was far less than Ryan in WI.

Let's look at another: Sarah Palin

Alaska 2004: Bush +25.6
Alaska 2008: Bush +21.5
2008 National Swing: Obama +9.6

So, Alaska swings, but not nearly as much as the nation did. Palin definitely helped.

And to close this off, let's look at Cheney. 1996 was crazy (Perot), so let's compare the Wyoming margins of the 21st century:

Wyoming 2000: Bush +40.1
Wyoming 2004: Bush +39.8
Wyoming 2008: McCain +32.2
Wyoming 2012: Romney +40.8

So, it looks like Cheney's effect in Wyoming wasn't much - Romney achieved an even bigger margin, and 2008 can be explained by that year's national swing. But to answer the question in the poll, Ryan definitely wins over Edwards.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2014, 07:58:51 PM »

Let's compare:

Wisconsin 2008: Obama +13.9
Wisconsin 2012: Obama +6.9
2012 National Swing: Romney +3.3

If Wisconsin only swung with the nation, it would have been Obama +10.6. Clearly, Paul Ryan was a significant help, but not significant enough to make Romney actually win the state. On the other hand:

North Carolina 2000: Bush +12.8
North Carolina 2004: Bush +12.4
2004 National Swing: Bush +2.9

So, Edwards kept NC from swinging with the nation, and even narrowed the margin a bit from 2000, but the overall effect was far less than Ryan in WI.

Let's look at another: Sarah Palin

Alaska 2004: Bush +25.6
Alaska 2008: Bush +21.5
2008 National Swing: Obama +9.6

So, Alaska swings, but nearly as much as the nation did. Palin definitely helped.

And to close this off, let's look at Cheney. 1996 was crazy (Perot), so let's compare the Wyoming margins of the 21st century:

Wyoming 2000: Bush +40.1
Wyoming 2004: Bush +39.8
Wyoming 2008: McCain +32.2
Wyoming 2012: Romney +40.8

So, it looks like Cheney's effect in Wyoming wasn't much - Romney achieved an even bigger margin, and 2008 can be explained by that year's national swing. But to answer the question in the poll, Ryan definitely wins over Edwards.

But Michigan swung by pretty much the same margin as Wisconsin did, so it isn't a perfect comparison.
The reason why Michigan swung by more than the nation did is simple: Romney birth state effect
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