I’ve been doing a good amount of statistical analysis of Mary Landrieu’s past races. One of the most impressive parts of her 2008 win was her strength around the New Orleans area. Yes, the Landrieus are a known commodity around New Orleans, so you’d expect some degree of overperformance there; still the numbers that she put up around the other parishes in the metropolitan area were pretty amazing. Specifically, I want to look at Jefferson Parish in this thread. Jefferson Parish consists mostly suburban New Orleans and is one of the larger parishes in the area. In both Presidential elections since Katrina, it actually cast more votes than Orleans Parish (due to the Katrina). I’ve spent a good deal of time in the area, so I’ll also try to work in my personal impressions in my analysis.
To start, I’ve divided the parish into three sub-regions. Here's a map from DRA:
Virtually all of the parish's' population is up north near New Orleans; if you go further south into Region III, its mostly just swamp land:
Region I (blue)This is the region I’ve spent in the most time in. Region I consists of Metairie; while Metairie is the largest “city” in the parish, it’s never been its own official municipality (presumably because its residents dislike government). When New Orleans first started to suburbanize, Metairie was the prime destination for white flight. Still today, its demographics’ are mostly white and mid to upper class. As such, there is a palpable anti-government sentiment. Metairie is known for its expansive shopping centers and malls, which are themselves a product of the suburbanization.
While you’d expect most suburban white voters to be socially moderate, Metairie voters are noticeably more conservative. Quality public schools here tend to be sparse; most families send their children to private, namely Catholic, schools. Personally, I think this plays a big part perpetuating the area’s social conservatism. Likewise, there is a strong contingent of old money and elderly voters here, reinforcing its Republican lean.
In the late 20th century, when Louisiana began shifting from a Democratic stronghold to a competitive two-party state, Metairie provided GOP candidates a natural base. In 1984, for instance, when Edwin Edwards ousted Dave Treen by 30%, Treen carried Jefferson parish because of his strength here. Metairie has been the anchor of LA-01 for the last few decades and has given us Bob Livingston, David Vitter and Steve Scalise.
Region II (green)Region II was sort of a ‘leftovers’ region. The curvy line dividing Region II from Region III is the Mississippi River. Thus, everything south of the river is considered on the western side of United States and vice versa. Region II is basically everything in the East Bank (upper bank) other than Metairie.
The northern segment of the region is a municipality called Kenner. Kenner is known for having the Louis Armstrong International Airport (the main airport serving Greater New Orleans). For all electoral purposes, Kenner is essentially a ‘mini’, more exurban version of Metairie. The only difference is that Kenner has a noticeable black population. Overall, though, Kenner still leans solidly Republican, usually having a 60-65% R lean (compared to 70-75% for Metairie).
The rest of Region II consists of a handful of neighborhoods that border the MS River. The neighborhoods are roughly equal in size, middle-income and are mostly white. The easternmost neighborhood, Jefferson, was the only neighborhood in the parish to flood significantly in Katrina.
Region III (purple)As its located south of the Mississippi River, Region III is known as the West Bank. The unlike the northern regions, the West Bank is racially diverse. As of 2010, whites made up 43% of its population with blacks close behind at 41% and Hispanics near 10%. In 2000, the white population advantage was 52-38. Blacks have been steadily been moving back here since 2005, so I strongly suspect they have finally surpassed whites since the last census.
Personally, my mom taught public school here, in the Westwego neighborhood, from the late ‘80s to the early 2000’s, so I have some personal experience here. The West Bank is mostly working class. Common jobs here are things like policemen, fireman and retail/hospitality workers. There likewise tend to be fairly few transients.
I think Landrieu is in a position to do well here because of name recognition. Retail politics works well here. I actually Maness would be a better fit for the Republicans here, not that I’m saying he’ll win them. He’s more of your average guy whereas Cassidy has a Romney-ish vibe.
In 2008, Landrieu won 53.5% of the two-party vote in the parish, making it almost an exact bellwether for the state, where she got 53.3%. Under normal circumstances, though, Jefferson is by no means a Democratic, or even swingy, parish. The last time it voted Democratic at the Presidential was 1960 (!). Since 2000, no Democratic Presidential nominee has broken 45% parishwide; here are the last 4 cycles worth:
The pie charts next to each map represent the percent of the parish vote that each region cast. For example, in 2008, Region III cast 40% of the vote; by 2012 it was up to 41%.
Overall, the pattern has been pretty stable. Region III, which leans Democratic, casts about 40% of the vote, but is drowned out by the 60% coming from the two other heavily GOP regions.
Now lets look how Landrieu has performed throughout her career:
While at first I considered her 2008 map to be the absolute ceiling for a Democrat here, remember that he parish swung more than 5% towards Obama. Perhaps Landrieu could have been at or above 55% with a 2012 electorate.
Perhaps one of the more worrying signs for Landrieu is that, from '02 to '08, the are northern regions swung the hardest towards here. This suggests increased support with whites; the issue now will be sustaining crossover support.
While I doubt Jefferson Parish will be more D than the state this time around, it will be a good bellwhether of sorts. To compete statewide, Landrieu can afford to lose the parish, but she must keep it within 6 or 8 points. She simply can't rely on some rural areas that have supported her in the past; here, at least her family is entrenched and its trending in the right direction.
Here are a few other maps that might fit with this post (these are both of the upper, non-swamp part of the parish):
Landrieu '08 vs. Obama '08
Pres. Swing from '08 to '12
Pres. Trend from '08 to '12
