Your overall race ratings for Gubernatorial Races

[Mister Mets]

Safe D

California
New Hampshire
New York
Vermont

Likely D

Maryland
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Minnesota
Oregon

Tilt D

Massachusetts
Maine
Kansas
Colorado
Hawaii

Tilt R
Florida
Connecticut
Illinois
Arkansas
Wisconsin

Lean R
Georgia
Michigan
Arizona

Likely R

Iowa
Nebraska
Oklahoma
South Carolina

Safe R

Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Nevada
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming
New Mexico
Ohio

The sheer collapse of the Democratic nominee in Ohio makes that a safe Republican race.

Polls showing a tie or slight Baker lead in MA suggest that's a competitive race.

I tried to avoid toss-ups since there are few races where odds are truly 50/50. "Tilt" is pretty much the equivalent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democratic, IL and Pa and ME.. Quinn is close enough to get turnout in Cook he needs.


AK and CO will stay Dem

WI and KS and MI all will vie for 3rd inc to lose.

[morgieb]

Safe D

California
Minnesota (up by at least 10 points, happy to safe that Dayton's safe, particularly given Minnesota's quite polarised)
New Hampshire (not sure about this but IIRC Hassan's popular and her opposition is weak)
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania (what a f***ing failure has Corbett been. Santorum's margin is in danger)
Vermont

Likely D

Hawaii (still close on paper, but Hawaiian polls are garbage and all Ige has to do to win is say I'm a Democrat)
Maryland (Brown hasn't blown this away as one might expect)
Rhode Island (New England has this weird history of electing moderate Republicans for governor despite most other offices/legislatures/etc. being dominated by Democrats, and the polling is competitive)

Lean D

Illinois (Quinn's polling lead looks solid enough, and in any case it's hard to see someone who didn't win in 2012 win in 2013)

Tilt D

Colorado (think Hickenlooper deserves the edge for now)
Connecticut (hard to know who to believe here. Malloy was in big trouble before a week ago, now he's ahead by 8. Think he has the edge as Connecticut is still very blue, albeit less so at the gubernatorial level)
Florida (Crist starting to get a small but consistent lead. Normally I'd have this as a toss-up but it's not something I like doing this late unless it's genuinely 50/50)
Kansas (is Brownback coming back? Think the Fox/CNN polls were outliers but there is a trend in his favour)
Massachusetts (I'm honestly tempted to put this as a toss-up, but there are enough good polls to have Coakley still ahead. Want to see PPP or someone tackle this rather than one of the garbage in-state pollsters. Will she be the biggest flop of all time if she loses?)

Toss-up

Maine (have this as a toss-up because it's less obvious to predict than a lot of the Tilt races. LePage seems to be building slightly, and Cutler is showing no signs of withdrawing, although in this case he's clearly 3rd. Will be the race to watch for governor IMO)

Tilt R

Alaska (not much polling here, will lean towards the incumbent because it's Alaska, but there's no doubt our ticket is a talented one)
Georgia (chances probably aren't as good as in the Senate as Deal hasn't made any big errors, but it's still close, and there are signs that the Dems are being undersampled)
Michigan (uber-tight. Tempted to put this as a toss-up, as the Dems have strong GOTV here and Schauer will get some coattails, but for all the hype I'm pretty sure Snyder has led in 95% of the polls)
Wisconsin (GOTV could be our saving grace, as traditionally it's quite good in the Midwest. Still you'd back Walker at this stage)

Lean R

Arizona (not really sure how this goes, want more polling. Failing that, I'll take parallels from 2012, where the Democrat went close but not close enough)
Arkansas (most non-internals have Hutchinson ahead. Comparable to the Senate race in that it's competitive but you won't back the Democrat here)

Likely R

Idaho (well, Larry Sabato thought this might be a smokey. Plus apparently the RGA are going on the offence here. But you'd still back Otter, most likely the far-right will come back to him despite their grumblings)
Nebraska (apparently *some* controversies here in the Nebraskan Republican Party. We know that Ricketts is a crap candidate, whereas Hasebrook isn't terrible. But you'd still like the Pubs here)
New Mexico (I know King has had controversies, but one poll did come out showing Martinez up by an underwhelming margin. How blue is New Mexico now?)
Oklahoma (looking interesting. Dornan's internals had him within the MoE, and he's running a strong campaign. But it's probably a little too late to really threaten Fallin)
South Carolina (think Haley has done enough to hold off Sheheen reasonably comfortably)

Safe R

Alabama
Nevada (NOTA won the Democratic primary. Yeah)
Ohio (what a disaster Fitzgerald turned out to be)
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming

[SPC]

Using the same methodology I used for the Senate races:

Chance of GOP win:
Georgia 91%
Arkansas 88%
Arizona 75%
Michigan 73%
Wisconsin 63%
Massachusetts 54%
Maine 52%
Kansas 49%
Florida 46%
Alaska 37%
Connecticut 37%
Colorado 28%
Illinois 16%
Rhode Island 9%

I did not bother to calculate for Pennsylvania, since such a calculation would certainly come to zero.

[nolesfan2011]

Safe D: OR, CA, NY, VT, PA
Likely D: NH, MN, MD
Lean D: RI, KS

Safe R: NV, WY, SD, TX, IA, OH, TN, AL
Likely R: NM, OK, ID
Leans R: AZ, NE, SC, AR

Pure Toss-Up: WI, MI, IL

Tilt D: MA, CT, CO, AK, HI
Tilt R: FL
Goes to runoff: GA (advantage GOP)

[nolesfan2011]

Safe D: OR, CA, NY, VT, PA
Likely D: NH, MN, MD
Lean D: RI, KS

Safe R: NV, WY, SD, TX, IA, OH, TN, AL
Likely R: NM, OK, ID
Leans R: AZ, NE, SC, AR

Pure Toss-Up: WI, MI, IL

Tilt D: MA, CT, CO, AK, HI
Tilt R: FL
Goes to runoff: GA (advantage GOP)

Safe D: CA, NY, VT, PA, MN
Likely D: NH, MD, OR
Lean D: RI
Safe R: NV, WY, SD, TX, IA, OH, TN, AL
Likely R: NM, OK, ID, NE, SC
Leans R: AZ, AR
Pure Toss-Up: WI, CO, MI, IL, CT
Tilt D: MA, AK, HI, KS
Tilt R: FL
Goes to runoff: GA (toss-up)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IL, WI, KS, MI, FL,CO,AK,Pa and ME will go Dem



AR and Ga stay GOP

Wildcard, WI gov. 

[Boston Bread]

Safe D: CA, NY, VT, PA, MN, OR, HI
Likely D: NH, MD, RI
Lean D: KS, CO
Tossup/Tilt D: WI, IL, ME, FL, CT
Tossup/Tilt I: AK
Tossup/Tilt R: MI, GA, MA
Lean R: AZ, AR
Likely R: ID, NE, NM
Safe R: NV, WY, SD, TX, IA, OH, TN, AL, OK, SC

As of 10/26

Changes:
CO-Gov: Tilt D -> Lean D
OK-Gov: Likely R -> Safe R
SC-Gov: Likely R -> Safe R
HI-Gov: Likely D -> Safe D

[morgieb]

Will avoid from calling races toss-ups. Instead for a race I consider a toss-up I'll use the Tilt category to flow with my predictions.

Safe D

California
Minnesota
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Vermont

Likely D

Hawaii
Maryland
New Hampshire
Rhode Island

Tilt D

Colorado
Connecticut
Florida
Illinois
Kansas
Maine
Massachusetts
Wisconsin

Tilt I

Alaska

Tilt R

Georgia
Michigan

Lean R

Arizona
Arkansas

Likely R

Idaho
Nebraska
New Mexico
Oklahoma
South Carolina

Safe R

Alabama
Iowa
Nevada
Ohio
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming

Being a bit cautious for the races so far, but a lot of the races seem rather localised this year. Feeling kinda optimistic here, in contrast to my Senate predictions. Most likely the races that can be considered toss-ups will probably be half-way between the two extremes I've got.

[publicunofficial]

Could you imagine two years ago that Scott Walker, Sean Parnell and Sam Brownback would all be in bigger trouble than Rick Snyder and John Kasich?



Safe D:
California (Brown)
New York (Cuomo)
Oregon (Kitzhaber)
Pennsylvania (Corbett)
Vermont (Shumlin)

Likely D:
Hawaii (OPEN)
Maryland (OPEN)
Minnesota (Dayton)
New Hampshire (Hassan)
Rhode Island (OPEN)

Lean D:
Connecticut (Malloy)


Tilt D/I:
Alaska (Parnell)
Colorado (Hickenlooper)
Maine (LePage)
Florida (Scott)
Kansas (Brownback)

Toss-Up:
Illinois (Quinn)
Wisconsin (Walker)

Tilt R:
Massachusetts (OPEN)

Lean R:
Arizona (OPEN)
Arkansas (OPEN)
Georgia (Deal)
Michigan (Snyder)

Likely R:
Idaho (Otter)
Nebraska (OPEN)
South Carolina (Haley)

Safe R:
Alabama (Bentley)
Iowa (Branstad)
Nevada (Sandoval)
New Mexico (Martinez)
Ohio (Kasich)
Oklahoma (Fallin)
South Dakota (Daugaard)
Tennessee (Haslam)
Texas (OPEN)
Wyoming (Mead)

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe D:

Pennsylvania
Everything else

Likely D:

Hawaii
Maryland
Rhode Island

Lean D:

Illinois

Toss-Up/Tilt D or I:

Alaska
Colorado
Kansas

Toss-Up:

Connecticut
Florida
Maine
Massachusetts
Wisconsin

Toss-Up/Tilt R:

Georgia
Michigan

Lean R:

Arizona

Likely R:

Arkansas
South Carolina

Safe R:

Everything else

[Maxwell]

Safe D:

Pennsylvania
Everything else

Likely D:

Hawaii
Maryland
Rhode Island

Lean D:

Illinois

Toss-Up/Tilt D or I:

Alaska
Colorado
Kansas

Toss-Up:

Connecticut
Florida
Maine
Massachusetts
Wisconsin

Toss-Up/Tilt R:

Georgia
Michigan

Lean R:

Arizona

Likely R:

Arkansas
South Carolina

Safe R:

Everything else

Where is Massachusetts?

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe D:

Pennsylvania
Everything else

Likely D:

Hawaii
Maryland
Rhode Island

Lean D:

Illinois

Toss-Up/Tilt D or I:

Alaska
Colorado
Kansas

Toss-Up:

Connecticut
Florida
Maine
Massachusetts
Wisconsin

Toss-Up/Tilt R:

Georgia
Michigan

Lean R:

Arizona

Likely R:

Arkansas
South Carolina

Safe R:

Everything else

Where is Massachusetts?

Just added that before you posted.

[SWE]

Safe D:

Pennsylvania
Everything else

Likely D:

Hawaii
Maryland
Rhode Island

Lean D:

Illinois

Toss-Up/Tilt D or I:

Alaska
Colorado
Kansas

Toss-Up:

Connecticut
Florida
Maine
Massachusetts
Wisconsin

Toss-Up/Tilt R:

Georgia
Michigan

Lean R:

Arizona

Likely R:

Arkansas
South Carolina

Safe R:

Everything else

Where is Massachusetts?

South of Vermont and New Hampshire, north of Connecticut and Rhode Island

[Maxwell]

Safe D:

Pennsylvania
Everything else

Likely D:

Hawaii
Maryland
Rhode Island

Lean D:

Illinois

Toss-Up/Tilt D or I:

Alaska
Colorado
Kansas

Toss-Up:

Connecticut
Florida
Maine
Massachusetts
Wisconsin

Toss-Up/Tilt R:

Georgia
Michigan

Lean R:

Arizona

Likely R:

Arkansas
South Carolina

Safe R:

Everything else

Where is Massachusetts?

Just added that before you posted.

Ah yes, don't I feel silly.

[Thomas D]

Green means toss-up, not Indy. Obviously.

[Chance92]

Green means toss-up, not Indy. Obviously.

Just my kind of map. The more horse races on election night, the happier I am.

[IceSpear]

Green means toss-up, not Indy. Obviously.

Maryland as a toss up?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Safe D
California
Minnesota
New York
Oregon
Vermont

Likely D
Hawaii
Maryland
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island

Lean D
None

Tossup/Tilt D
Colorado
Connecticut
Illinois
Kansas

Pure Tossup
Florida
Maine
Wisconsin

Tossup/Tilt R
Alaska
Georgia
Massachusetts
Michigan

Lean R
Arizona
Arkansas

Likely R
Idaho
Nebraska
New Mexico
Oklahoma
South Carolina

Safe R
Alabama
Iowa
Nevada
Ohio
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Safe D
Pennsylvania
California
New York
Oregon
Minnesota
Vermont

Lean D
Maryland
New Hampshire
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Kansas

Tossup
Wisconsin
Alaska
Michigan
Florida
Illinois
Massachusetts
Colorado
Maine

Lean R
Arkansas
Georgia
Connecticut
Arizona

Safe R
Texas
Oklahoma
Nebraska
South Dakota
Wyoming
Idaho
Nevada
New Mexico
Iowa
Ohio
Alabama
South Carolina
Tennessee

[Thomas D]

Green means toss-up, not Indy. Obviously.

Maryland as a toss up?

I think Brown will probably win. But I'm finding it hard to find people who are excited to cast a ballot for him.