Your overall race ratings for Senatorial Races

[nolesfan2011]

AK: Toss-up (We'll see how the polls look after Sullivan won)
AL: Safe R
AR: toss-up (Pryor has a chance but I've been bullish on Cotton for a while)
CO: Tilt D (Udall should still survive)
DE: Safe D
GA: Tilt R (Nunn is hanging around but I think the debates will hurt her)
HI: Safe D
IA: Tilt R (Braley has a lot of work to do but Ernst may help him out)
ID Safe R
IL: Likely D
KS: Tilt R (if Chad Taylor drops out, this would be competitive between Orman and Roberts)
KY: Toss-up (Grimes is campaigning well, McConnell is fighting hard too, neck and neck)
LA: Tilt R (Landrieu hasn't done anything to change the fact Cassidy is a better fit for the state)
MA Safe D
ME: Likely R (I want to say leans but I won't, I'm bullish on Bellows surprising people)
MI: Leans D (Land hasn't been that great, Peters is keep on keeping on)
MN: Leans D (Franken is safe imo)
MS: Likely R (McDaniel may win his legal challenge)
MT: Likely R (Curtis is unlikely to move the needle with such little time)
NC: Toss-up (dead heat)
NE: Likely R (Domina may have a shot if the vote gets split)
NH: Likely D (undernoticed race but I doubt Brown gets any closer than this)
NJ: Safe D
NM: Safe D
OK and OK-Special: Safe R
OR: Safe D
RI: Safe D
SC and SC-Special: Safe R
SD: Likely R (if Pressler would drop out Weiland would have a shot)
TN: Safe R
TX: Safe R
VA: Safe D
WV: Likely R (Tennant is done)
WY: Safe R

Standards:
Safe=90% plus chance of victory
Likely=75% plus chance
Lean= 55% plus chance
Tilt=51-55%
Toss-Up=50-50 or close to it

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe D

Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Virginia

Likely D

Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire

Lean D

Colorado

Tilt D

Iowa

Toss-Up

Alaska
North Carolina

Tilt R

Arkansas
Louisiana

Lean R

Georgia
Kentucky

Likely R

Kansas
West Virginia

Safe R

Alabama
Idaho
Maine
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
South Carolina
South Carolina (S)
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming

[windjammer]

Safe D

Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Rhode Island


Likely D

Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Oregon
Virginia



Lean D



Tilt D

Iowa
Colorado


Toss-Up

Alaska
North Carolina
Louisiana


Tilt R

Arkansas (I still believe Pryor is the slight favorite to win in the end because of Cotton's extremism, but the current polls are the current polls)


Lean R


Kentucky
West Virginia

Likely R

Kansas
Georgia

Montana
South Dakota

Safe R

Alabama
Idaho
Maine
Mississippi
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
South Carolina
South Carolina (S)

Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming
[/quote]

[backtored]

Safe D

Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Virginia

Likely D

Minnesota
New Hampshire

Lean D

New Hampshire
Michigan

Tilt D

Iowa (It feels like Braley's race to win, which he hasn't been doing, which means that Iowa may actually be a pure toss-up)
Alaska

Toss-Up

Colorado
North Carolina

Tilt R


Lean R

Arkansas
Louisiana
Georgia
Kentucky


Likely R

Kansas

Safe R

Alabama
West Virginia
Idaho
Maine
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
South Carolina
South Carolina (S)
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming

[Free Bird]

Safe D

Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Virginia

Likely D

Minnesota
New Hampshire

Lean D

New Hampshire
Michigan

Tilt D
Colorado (for now. Polls are weird here)


Toss-Up

Iowa
Alaska
North Carolina

Tilt R
Louisiana

Lean R

Arkansas
Georgia
Kentucky


Likely R

Kansas
West Virginia (it still has its streak)

Safe R

Alabama
Idaho
Maine
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
South Carolina
South Carolina (S)
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming

[NHLiberal]

Safe D
Rhode Island
Delaware
New Mexico
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Hawaii
Virginia
Oregon

Likely D
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Michigan

Lean D
Colorado

Toss-Up
Alaska (Tilt D)
Iowa (Tilt D)
North Carolina (Pure)
Kentucky (Pure)
Louisiana (Tilt R)
Arkansas (Tilt R)
Georgia (Tilt R)

Lean R
None

Likely R
Kansas
West Virginia
Montana
South Dakota
Mississippi

Safe R
South Carolina (REG)
Tennessee
Nebraska
Maine
Texas
Oklahoma (SP)
South Carolina (SP)
Oklahoma (REG)
Idaho
Wyoming
Alabama

[Senator Cris]

Safe D
Rhode Island
Delaware
New Mexico
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Hawaii
Virginia
Oregon

Likely D
New Hampshire
Minnesota

Lean D
Michigan

Toss-Up
Alaska (Pure)
Iowa (Pure)
North Carolina (Pure)
Colorado (Tilt D)
Kentucky (Tilt R)
Louisiana (Pure)
Arkansas (Tilt R)
Georgia (Tilt R)

Lean R
None

Likely R
Kansas
West Virginia
Montana
South Dakota

Safe R
South Carolina (REG)
Tennessee
Nebraska
Maine
Texas
Oklahoma (SP)
South Carolina (SP)
Oklahoma (REG)
Idaho
Wyoming
Alabama
Mississippi

[Miles]

FWIW, RRH put out their August ratings, which I generally agree with.

[IceSpear]

FWIW, RRH put out their August ratings, which I generally agree with.

What is "DGLB"? They refer to it in the Virginia write-up.

[NHLiberal]

FWIW, RRH put out their August ratings, which I generally agree with.

What is "DGLB"? They refer to it in the Virginia write-up.

Dead girl live boy, referring to a comment Edwin Edwards once made about the only way he could lose reelection being if he was caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.

[KCDem]

Safe D
Rhode Island
Delaware
New Mexico
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Hawaii
Virginia
Oregon

Likely D
New Hampshire
Minnesota

Lean D
Michigan
Colorado

Toss-Up
Alaska
Iowa
North Carolina
Kentucky
Louisiana
Arkansas

Lean R
Georgia

Likely R
Kansas
West Virginia
Montana
South Dakota

Safe R
South Carolina (Graham)
Mississippi
Tennessee
Nebraska
Maine
Texas
Oklahoma (Inhofe)
South Carolina (Scott)
Oklahoma (Lankford)
Idaho
Wyoming
Alabama

[Never]

Safe D
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Virginia

Likely D
Minnesota
New Hampshire

Lean D
Michigan

Tilt D
Colorado

Toss-Up
Alaska
Iowa
North Carolina

Tilt R
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana

Lean R
Georgia

Likely R
Kansas


Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Maine
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (Special)
South Carolina
South Carolina (Special)
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming
West Virginia

[ElectionsGuy]

Bump...

Safe D

Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Virginia

Likely D

Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire

Lean D

North Carolina

Tilt D

Iowa
Colorado

Toss-Up

Kansas

Tilt R

Louisiana

Lean R

Alaska
Arkansas
Georgia
Kentucky

Likely R

South Dakota

Safe R

Alabama
Idaho
Maine
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
South Carolina
South Carolina (S)
Tennessee
Texas
West Virginia
Wyoming

[SWE]

Likely D:
Michigan

Lean D:
Colorado
North Carolina

Tossup/Tilt D:
Iowa

Pure Tossup:
Kansas

Tossup/ Tilt R:
Alaska

Lean R:
Arkansas
Georgia
Louisiana

Likely R:
Kentucky
Montana

Safe R:
West Virginia
South Dakota

[free my dawg]

Safe D

Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Virginia

Likely D

Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire

Lean D

North Carolina

Tilt D

Iowa


Toss-Up
Colorado
Kansas

Tilt R

Alaska
Louisiana

Lean R


Arkansas
Georgia
Kentucky

Likely R

South Dakota

Safe R

Alabama
Idaho
Maine
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
South Carolina
South Carolina (S)
Tennessee
Texas
West Virginia
Wyoming

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Likely/Safe D
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Virginia

Tilts D/Competitive
Colorado
Iowa
New Hampshire
North Carolina

Tossup
Alaska
Louisiana

Tilts R/Competitive
*Arkansas
Georgia
Kansas

Likely/Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Kentucky
Maine
Mississippi
*Montana
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (sp)
South Caroina
South Carolina (sp)
*South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
*West Virginia
Wyoming

*Party Flip

Outlook: R+4 to R+6

[SPC]

Safe GOP (>98% Chance of Victory)
All unlisted GOP seats + Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota

Advantage GOP (60-98% Chance of Victory)
Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky

Tossup
Alaska*, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas*, Louisiana*

Advantage DEM
Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina

Safe DEM
All unlisted DEM seats

Asterisked seats would enter the colored category if additional polling information validated what scarce polling data is available.

Georgia would be in the tossup category due to Perdue's insignificant edge in polling, but the hurdle of a runoff works to Perdue's advantage (although I think the turnout difference between the general and the runoff would be far less pronounced than in 2008, when Obama was on the ballot in a presidential year)

Louisiana remains in the tossup category because Cassidy's current polling advantage is both unconfirmed by multiple sources and less than Manness's vote share. Given that it is uncertain whether Republicans will capture 5 or more seats on Election Day, I am not prepared to write off Landrieu's chances in a runoff. However, if Cassidy is truly ahead in the general election, it is hard to see Landrieu prevailing in a runoff, even if Republicans fall short of a majority.

Given my tendency to be slightly optimistic regarding Republican electoral chances (see my 2006, 2010, and 2012 predictions), I am inclined to assign the tossup seats without an asterisk next to them to the Democrats, if forced to choose.

Pretty much this, except I would now move Alaska into the Advantage GOP category, given that several independent firms have now confirmed Sullivan's lead. I would like to move Louisiana into that category as well, but I do not feel that one poll is sufficient reason to assert that Cassidy has a substantial advantage.

[RogueBeaver]

Safe D

Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Virginia

Likely D

Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire

Lean D

North Carolina


Tilt D

Iowa


Toss-Up

Colorado


Tilt R

Alaska
Louisiana
Kansas

Lean R


Arkansas
Georgia


Likely R

Kentucky
South Dakota

Safe R

Alabama
Idaho
Maine
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
South Carolina
South Carolina (S)
Tennessee
Texas
West Virginia
Wyoming

[Dixie Reborn]

Safe D
-Delaware
-Hawaii
-Illinois
-Massachusetts
-New Jersey
-New Mexico
-Rhode Island
-Virginia

Likely D
-Michigan
-Minnesota
-Oregon

Lean D
-New Hampshire
-North Carolina

Tossup
-Colorado
-Iowa
-Kansas

Lean R
-Arkansas
-Kentucky
-Louisiana

Likely R
-Georgia
-Mississippi
-South Dakota
-West Virginia

Safe R
-Alabama
-Idaho
-Maine
-Montana
-Nebraska
-Oklahoma (A)
-Oklahoma (B)
-South Carolina (A)
-South Carolina (B)
-Tennessee
-Texas
-Wyoming

[JerryArkansas]

[Mr. Smith]

Safe D

- Delaware
- Hawaii
- Illinois
- Minnesota
- New Mexico
- New Jersey
- Oregon
- Rhode Island
- Virginia

Likely D

- Michigan
- New Hampshire

Tilt D

- Colorado
- Kansas (unless Orman caucuses for the GOP,which I doubt)
- North Carolina

Toss-up

- Alaska
- Georgia
- Iowa

Tilt R

- Arkansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana

Likely R

- Mississippi
- South Dakota
- West Virginia

Safe R

- Alabama
- Idaho
- Maine
- Oklahoma (both)
- South Carolina (both)
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Wyoming

[nolesfan2011]

AK: Toss-up (We'll see how the polls look after Sullivan won)
AL: Safe R
AR: toss-up (Pryor has a chance but I've been bullish on Cotton for a while)
CO: Tilt D (Udall should still survive)
DE: Safe D
GA: Tilt R (Nunn is hanging around but I think the debates will hurt her)
HI: Safe D
IA: Tilt R (Braley has a lot of work to do but Ernst may help him out)
ID Safe R
IL: Likely D
KS: Tilt R (if Chad Taylor drops out, this would be competitive between Orman and Roberts)
KY: Toss-up (Grimes is campaigning well, McConnell is fighting hard too, neck and neck)
LA: Tilt R (Landrieu hasn't done anything to change the fact Cassidy is a better fit for the state)
MA Safe D
ME: Likely R (I want to say leans but I won't, I'm bullish on Bellows surprising people)
MI: Leans D (Land hasn't been that great, Peters is keep on keeping on)
MN: Leans D (Franken is safe imo)
MS: Likely R (McDaniel may win his legal challenge)
MT: Likely R (Curtis is unlikely to move the needle with such little time)
NC: Toss-up (dead heat)
NE: Likely R (Domina may have a shot if the vote gets split)
NH: Likely D (undernoticed race but I doubt Brown gets any closer than this)
NJ: Safe D
NM: Safe D
OK and OK-Special: Safe R
OR: Safe D
RI: Safe D
SC and SC-Special: Safe R
SD: Likely R (if Pressler would drop out Weiland would have a shot)
TN: Safe R
TX: Safe R
VA: Safe D
WV: Likely R (Tennant is done)
WY: Safe R

Standards:
Safe=90% plus chance of victory
Likely=75% plus chance
Lean= 55% plus chance
Tilt=51-55%
Toss-Up=50-50 or close to it

Update

AK: Tilt R from Toss-up, Sullivan leading now in a very saturated ads market, Begich still has a chance though
CO:Toss-Up from Tilt D, Gardner has been running a strong campaign, Udall still probably has an edge but the polls aren't showing it
KS: Tilt I from Tilt R. Roberts campaign is flailing, Orman looks good so far and his poll numbers are holding, Taylor off the ballot helps him as well... but it's Kansas so Roberts still has time to make up the deficit and Orman will have to deal with questions about who he is going to caucus with.
KY: Lean R from Toss-up, McConnell is pulling away now, fair chance Grimes may underperform Lunsford 2008 in the end, McConnell has run a good campaign and Grimes tried but she's running out of steam at this point I think.
NH: Leans D from Likely D, Brown is competing, some polls have shown it close, we'll see what happens

[IceSpear]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt GOP
SD,AR,AK,La,Ga,KY,WVAa,Mnt

Tilt Dem
KS,NC,Ia,CO,MI

Tied senate

50D-50R  VP Biden breaks tie

[SPC]

Just to test the idea that 538 actually confers any additional knowledge besides that of a typical polling average, I computed a polling average for all the races based on polling data since September 15, calculated the standard error of the mean for each set of data multiplied by 3 (a number determined empirically by calculating the error for the 2010 and 2012 races.) Here is what I gathered:

Republican chance of victory:
Georgia 85%¹
Alaska 84%->95%
South Dakota 75-80%²
Iowa 69%
Louisiana 67%²
Arkansas 65%->73%
Kentucky 57%->64%
Colorado 53%->63%
New Hampshire 26%->2%
Kansas 21%->37%
North Carolina 13%->11%

¹85% chance of plurality on Election Day. Assuming Swafford gets ~3%, there's a 55% chance of a runoff.
²95% for Rounds vs Weiland; 80% for Rounds vs Pressler
³There's a 73% chance of a runoff, in which Cassidy would have a 91% chance

The main areas of disagreement seem to be in the Republican-held battlegrounds, where sparse polling data forces greater reliance on fundamentals, it would seem.

(EDIT: I suppose New Hamsphire illustrates the greatest advantage to using the 538 approach, as a purely poll-reliant approach would be prone to wild-swings as more polling data comes in to correct an outlier (in this case, a tie that was quickly reversed by a 3 point deficit)