DKE: Democratic net gain of Gov seats unlikely

[Miles]

Article.

DKE says that Democrats only have a 41% of netting seats.

Democratic chances for competitive races:
PA: 99%
MN: 98%
MA: 96%
MD: 96%
OR: 96%
ME: 91%
KS: 63%
CO: 54%
WI: 52%
GA: 32%
FL: 27%
MI: 25%
AR: 19%
HI: 15%
NE: 11%
CT: 11%
NM: 10%
IL: 10%

I'm not sure what to make of this. It seems pretty pessimistic for most races, but too optimistic for states like MA, KS and ME.

[ElectionsGuy]

How is Wisconsin 52% but Michigan only 25%?!

I also think Colorado is too low at 54%, Illinois is way too low at 10%, Connecticut is way too low at 11%, Kansas is too high at 63%, and Maine way too high at 92%. You can pick and choose here, but overall a mixed bag that I don't really trust.

[Dixie Reborn]

Democratic chances for competitive races:
PA: 99%

Yeah, this is definitely a Leans Democrat race.

[Miles]

Democratic chances for competitive races:
PA: 99%

Yeah, this is definitely a Leans Democrat race.

Lol, I wasn't even gonna list it when it was first posting this.

[Niemeyerite]

LoL at HI and ME (among others).

[The Other Castro]

Democratic chances for competitive races:
PA:  99%
MN: 98%
MA: 96%  90%
MD: 96%
OR: 96%
ME: 91%  75%
KS: 63%  55%
CO: 54%  65%
WI: 52%  49%
GA: 32%  45%
FL: 27%  46%
MI: 25%  42%
AR: 19%  35%
HI: 15%  80% (seriously wtf)
NE: 11%  30%
CT: 11%  47%
NM: 10%
IL: 10%  41%

Fixed

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The DKE model is a slightly more sophisticated polling aggregator.

[RI]

The Dems only win Hawaii if Mufi comes back down to Earth.

[free my dawg]

The DKE model is a slightly more sophisticated polling aggregator.

[Vosem]

wtf hawaii

[Vega]

Yeah, Hawaii isn't competitive. Aiona won't win.

I want someone else to poll the race so people stop aggregating it as competitive and tricking people. Ige will win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like to see Walker taken out. 

Dems has a chance of knocking off Walker and Scott at least a 23-25 seat hold in govs elections

[henster]

FL is definitely 50/50, Crist and Scott have been exchanging leads for months.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Joke list.

[backtored]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I actually agree with Kos.

I don't know if I'd give Democrats that good of a shot in PA, ME, and MA, but I do think they'll probably win all three.

[Kevin]

A scenario I see at this point is that the Dems pick up PA, KS, and ME. While losing IL, AR, CT, and potentially HI/CO.

So basically a genuine "anti-incumbent" for gubernatorial elections.

[SWE]

A scenario I see at this point is that the Dems pick up PA, KS, and ME. While losing IL, AR, CT, and potentially HI/CO.

So basically a genuine "anti-incumbent" for gubernatorial elections.

Abercrombie lost his primary. Hawaii is safe.

[backtored]

A scenario I see at this point is that the Dems pick up PA, KS, and ME. While losing IL, AR, CT, and potentially HI/CO.

So basically a genuine "anti-incumbent" for gubernatorial elections.

Yeah, but I tend to think that Walker and Snyder may not survive unless there is a legitimate GOP wave.

[Vega]

A scenario I see at this point is that the Dems pick up PA, KS, and ME. While losing IL, AR, CT, and potentially HI/CO.

So basically a genuine "anti-incumbent" for gubernatorial elections.

Abercrombie lost his primary. Hawaii is safe.

What the Speaker said. Hawaii going red ain't happening.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will definately take MI, PA and ME and RI. Holding at least 23 seats.

[The Other Castro]

Dems will definately take MI, PA and ME and RI. Holding at least 23 19 seats.

[Vega]

Dems will definately take MI, PA and ME and RI. Holding at least 23 19 seats.

RI isn't a pickup since Chafee became a Democrat last year.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A scenario I see at this point is that the Dems pick up PA, KS, and ME. While losing IL, AR, CT, and potentially HI/CO.

So basically a genuine "anti-incumbent" for gubernatorial elections.

Abercrombie lost his primary. Hawaii is safe.

Pretty much. Hawaii is fool's gold for the Republicans. Remember these two polls? LOL.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/hi_polls.html

[Mister Mets]

I haven't been following it as closely, but it seems a bit absurd to say Democrats only have a 15% chance in Hawaii, or an 11% chance in Connecticut. I'd be glad to see Republican wins there, but the RCP averages don't seem that awesome for Republicans.

On the flipside, it doesn't seem that Democrats have a 90% chance in Maine (even if low numbers for Cutler increases the chances his supporters go to Michaud), or a 97% chance in Massachusetts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A scenario I see at this Wwwpoint is that the Dems pick up PA, KS,
and ME. While losing IL, AR, CT, and potentially HI/CO.


I think Dems will do better in WI, MI, FL, Pa and ME  and Pubs picking up AR for a net plus 3-5 seat net for Dems.

So basically a genuine "anti-incumbent" for gubernatorial elections.

Abercrombie lost his primary. Hawaii is safe.